Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we look through the <em>bubble </em>in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time


Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a>'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. </li>
<li>At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a>, but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. </li>
<li>Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.</li>
</ul>



Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. 
At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming Holdings (1364 HK), but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. 
Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.


Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's tea sector has attracted increased interest, but the share prices are volatile. Overall valuations do not look cheap, and the key is stock picking.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a> nd <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> are expensive on both PEG and P/B vs. ROE perspectives.</li>
<li>In two years, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a> will turn even cheaper.</li>
</ul>


China's tea sector has attracted increased interest, but the share prices are volatile. Overall valuations do not look cheap, and the key is stock picking.

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK) nd Mixue Group (2097 HK) are expensive on both PEG and P/B vs. ROE perspectives.
In two years, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK), Chagee Holdings (CHA US), and Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) will turn even cheaper.


Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Macro: Central Government Focuses on Improving People's Livelihoods to Stimulate Consumption, But Short-term Impact Unlikely(+)</li>
<li>Macro: Our Take on the Chinese Government Housing Provident Fund 2024 Annual Report(/)</li>
<li>1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK: 2025 June 2 – June 8 NEV Delivery Rankings(/)</li>
</ul>


Macro: Central Government Focuses on Improving People's Livelihoods to Stimulate Consumption, But Short-term Impact Unlikely(+)
Macro: Our Take on the Chinese Government Housing Provident Fund 2024 Annual Report(/)
1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK: 2025 June 2 – June 8 NEV Delivery Rankings(/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/ NIO US/XPEV US/1810 HK/CHA US/2589 HK/2555 HK/Macro

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Pets / In Depth: China’s pet boom bites back</li><li>China-Brazil /Trade war is a trade opportunity for Brazil, São Paulo mayor says</li><li>Canton Fair /In Depth: Despite slowdown in U.S. orders, global buyers flock to China’s biggest trade fair</li></ul>

Pets / In Depth: China’s pet boom bites backChina-Brazil /Trade war is a trade opportunity for Brazil, São Paulo mayor saysCanton Fair /In Depth: Despite slowdown in U.S. orders, global buyers flock to China’s biggest trade fair

China

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Co., Ltd. operates a chain of tea shops offering a diverse range of freshly made beverages and snacks, including fruit tea, milk tea, yogurt shakes, coffee, and ice cream. The company primarily serves the domestic market in the People's Republic of China through franchised and self-operated stores. It was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Auntea Jenny (2589 HK)

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao