Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.</li>
<li>Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level</li>
</ul>


Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.
Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level


Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 11.8% in the last three months against the 7.5% return posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.</li><li>This implies that the Axis Top Picks Basket beat the benchmark by a wide margin of 4.3%.</li><li>Moreover, the basket inched up by 5.8% in the last one month.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 11.8% in the last three months against the 7.5% return posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.This implies that the Axis Top Picks Basket beat the benchmark by a wide margin of 4.3%.Moreover, the basket inched up by 5.8% in the last one month.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the month of July 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn (US$384m). There are 13 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade, mostly on the deletes.</li>
<li>After steady outperformance over the last few months, there was a selloff in momentum names following the announcement of the election results. There has been a recovery since then.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn (US$384m). There are 13 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade, mostly on the deletes.
After steady outperformance over the last few months, there was a selloff in momentum names following the announcement of the election results. There has been a recovery since then.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 5.4% in the last three months against the 2.5% return posted by Nifty 50, thereby beating the benchmark by a wide margin of 2.9%.</li><li>Over the last one year, the basket has gained 43.2%.</li><li>Moreover, it gives us immense joy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 284% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 143% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 5.4% in the last three months against the 2.5% return posted by Nifty 50, thereby beating the benchmark by a wide margin of 2.9%.Over the last one year, the basket has gained 43.2%.Moreover, it gives us immense joy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 284% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 143% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the Month of June 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>EBITDA (+68% YoY) was led by 17% sales growth (-4% QoQ US but up 18% YoY, +10% EU, and +49% YoY in growth markets), higher gross margin (+490 bps YoY), muted SG&amp;A/R&amp;D (+7%/ -4% YoY) but was partly offset by higher staff cost (+20% YoY)</li><li>ARBP expects to maintain US oral solid business growth momentum, led by new launches and volume gain in the base business</li><li>However, specialty/injectable business is expected to remain muted due to Eugia plant impact (site transfer to Vizag plant may take 1 year)—the company has guided for quarterly sales rate at USD 150 mn (Q4FY24 was at USD 147 mn) and US sales rate of USD 100-110 mn for FY25, it expects growth to improve in FY26 on the back of new launches</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

EBITDA (+68% YoY) was led by 17% sales growth (-4% QoQ US but up 18% YoY, +10% EU, and +49% YoY in growth markets), higher gross margin (+490 bps YoY), muted SG&amp;A/R&amp;D (+7%/ -4% YoY) but was partly offset by higher staff cost (+20% YoY)ARBP expects to maintain US oral solid business growth momentum, led by new launches and volume gain in the base businessHowever, specialty/injectable business is expected to remain muted due to Eugia plant impact (site transfer to Vizag plant may take 1 year)—the company has guided for quarterly sales rate at USD 150 mn (Q4FY24 was at USD 147 mn) and US sales rate of USD 100-110 mn for FY25, it expects growth to improve in FY26 on the back of new launchesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aurobindo Pharma (4QFY24): Strong Q4, Eugia’s USFDA Issues Key Concern. Maintain ADD

India

Aurobindo Pharma Limited manufactures and markets oral and sterile antibiotics, antibacterials, anti-ulcerants and other generic basic drugs. Products include semi-synthetic penicillin drugs like ampicillin and amoxycillinas well as antibiotics, which include cloxacillin and dicloxacillin. The Company also manufactures formulations like astemizole, domeperidone and omeprazole.

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Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN)

Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

Pullback Underway $ACWI $SPX; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensive Sectors is a Reason for Caution. Buys in Health Care,...

Vermilion Research

Axis Top Picks for the month of July 2024

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 11.8% in the last three months against the 7.5% return posted by Nifty 50 over the same...

Axis Direct

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes, 42% Turnover, Momentum Recovers After Selloff

There are 13 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index. Estimated one-way turnover is 42.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 32bn. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Axis Top Picks for the Month of June 2024

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 5.4% in the last three months against the 2.5% return posted by Nifty 50, thereby...

Axis Direct

Aurobindo Pharma (4QFY24): Strong Q4, Eugia’s USFDA Issues Key Concern. Maintain ADD

EBITDA (+68% YoY) was led by 17% sales growth (-4% QoQ US but up 18% YoY, +10% EU, and +49% YoY in growth markets), higher gross margin (+490 bps YoY)

HDFC Securities

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