Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.</li>
<li>Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level</li>
</ul>


Our long-term bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. With that said, we believe a 1-3-month pullback has likely begun.
Supports to watch are at $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41-42 on MSCI EM (EEM-US), and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
The S&amp;P 500 is violating its 20-day MA, Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking below 4884, and Japan's TOPIX appears to be staging a false breakout at the 2800-2815 level


Pullback Underway; Getting Defensive; Long-Term RS Bottoms for Defensives Is a Reason for Caution

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 11.8% in the last three months against the 7.5% return posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.</li><li>This implies that the Axis Top Picks Basket beat the benchmark by a wide margin of 4.3%.</li><li>Moreover, the basket inched up by 5.8% in the last one month.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 11.8% in the last three months against the 7.5% return posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.This implies that the Axis Top Picks Basket beat the benchmark by a wide margin of 4.3%.Moreover, the basket inched up by 5.8% in the last one month.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the month of July 2024

<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 5.4% in the last three months against the 2.5% return posted by Nifty 50, thereby beating the benchmark by a wide margin of 2.9%.</li><li>Over the last one year, the basket has gained 43.2%.</li><li>Moreover, it gives us immense joy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 284% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 143% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 5.4% in the last three months against the 2.5% return posted by Nifty 50, thereby beating the benchmark by a wide margin of 2.9%.Over the last one year, the basket has gained 43.2%.Moreover, it gives us immense joy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 284% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 143% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the Month of June 2024

<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 5.8% in Apr’24 against the 1.2% return posted by Nifty 50, thereby beating the benchmark by a wide margin of 4.6%.</li><li>Over the last one year, the basket has gained 49%. Moreover, it gives us immense joy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 284% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 144% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period.</li><li>In light of this, we continue to believe in our thematic approach to Top Picks selection.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 5.8% in Apr’24 against the 1.2% return posted by Nifty 50, thereby beating the benchmark by a wide margin of 4.6%.Over the last one year, the basket has gained 49%. Moreover, it gives us immense joy to inform you that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 284% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 144% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period.In light of this, we continue to believe in our thematic approach to Top Picks selection.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>In Q3FY24, the Pharma Coverage universe demonstrated robust revenue growth of 12.7% YoY and 2.8% QoQ, primarily driven by volume gains, stable demand, and the introduction of new products such as gRevlimid, gSpiriva, and gPrezista.</li><li>Additionally, there has been a stabilization of pricing pressure in the US base business.</li><li>EBITDA margin witnessed a healthy improvement of 220bps YoY and 55bps QoQ, attributed to normalizing cost inflation and stabilizing prices. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q3FY24, the Pharma Coverage universe demonstrated robust revenue growth of 12.7% YoY and 2.8% QoQ, primarily driven by volume gains, stable demand, and the introduction of new products such as gRevlimid, gSpiriva, and gPrezista.Additionally, there has been a stabilization of pricing pressure in the US base business.EBITDA margin witnessed a healthy improvement of 220bps YoY and 55bps QoQ, attributed to normalizing cost inflation and stabilizing prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Aurobindo Pharma is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical manufacturing company that develops, manufactures, and commercializes a wide range of generic pharmaceuticals, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), and specialty formulations. The company's product portfolio covers therapeutic areas including antibiotics, anti-retrovirals, cardiovascular, central nervous system, gastroenterologicals, anti-allergics, oncology, and dermatology. It commenced operations in 1988-1989 with a single unit manufacturing semi-synthetic penicillin in Puducherry. Headquartered in Hyderabad, Telangana, India, the company was founded in 1986.

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Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN)

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Axis Top Picks for the month of July 2024

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Axis Top Picks - May 2024

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Pharma Sector: Q3FY24 Review

EBITDA margin witnessed a healthy improvement of 220bps YoY and 55bps QoQ, attributed to normalizing cost inflation and stabilizing prices.

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