Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hanwha Group has received <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250610/pdf/06kll1127xcrmc.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approval</a> from the US' CFIUS to acquire up to a 100% stake in Aussie-based shipbuilding and defense firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Hanwha currently holds 9.9% and a further 9.9% via a cash settled total return swap. Apparently Hanwha had initially filed with CFIUS to approve a 19.9% stake acquisition.</li>
<li>Hanwha has also applied to FIRB to lift its position to 19.9%.  It's unlikely the local regulator would block Hanwha subsequent to CFIUS' nod. Note: Austal "disputes" CFIUS' approval.</li>
</ul>


The Hanwha Group has received approval from the US' CFIUS to acquire up to a 100% stake in Aussie-based shipbuilding and defense firm Austal Ltd (ASB AU).
Hanwha currently holds 9.9% and a further 9.9% via a cash settled total return swap. Apparently Hanwha had initially filed with CFIUS to approve a 19.9% stake acquisition.
Hanwha has also applied to FIRB to lift its position to 19.9%.  It's unlikely the local regulator would block Hanwha subsequent to CFIUS' nod. Note: Austal "disputes" CFIUS' approval.


Austal (ASB AU): A Hanwha Bid Is Back In Play

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and 2 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>There is between A$30m-A$135m to trade in the index changes and that is between 0.7-16 days of ADV in the stocks. Short interest has jumped in a few stocks.</li>
<li>We expect positioning to be lower than the passive trading in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nick-scali-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20803:1" rel="noopener">Nick Scali</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27220:1" rel="noopener">Viva Energy Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius</a>.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
There is between A$30m-A$135m to trade in the index changes and that is between 0.7-16 days of ADV in the stocks. Short interest has jumped in a few stocks.
We expect positioning to be lower than the passive trading in Nick Scali, Viva Energy Group, Perseus Mining, Austal Ltd and Healius.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a>  is looking to raise US$157m, with US$125m from a primary placement and the remainder, a secondary placement contingent on the primary being fully subscribed.</li>
<li>The deal will be a large one to digest at 58 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 15.3% of its shares outstanding.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Austal Ltd (ASB AU)  is looking to raise US$157m, with US$125m from a primary placement and the remainder, a secondary placement contingent on the primary being fully subscribed.
The deal will be a large one to digest at 58 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 15.3% of its shares outstanding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Austal Placement: Thematically Hot, Relatively Low Valuation

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taking advantage of a doubling in its share price over the last year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal</a> is tapping the market to fund the expansion of its US facilities to fulfil US Navy contracts.</li>
<li>Austal is placing out 52.6mn new shares (non-underwritten) at A$3.80/share - ~A$200mn all-in - a 15.6% discount to last close, and effectively tapping out its annual placement capacity.</li>
<li>Provided the placement is squared away, founder John Rothwell will unload $50mn of his own stock. As such, any M&amp;A activity is now firmly on the backburner. </li>
</ul>


Taking advantage of a doubling in its share price over the last year, Austal is tapping the market to fund the expansion of its US facilities to fulfil US Navy contracts.
Austal is placing out 52.6mn new shares (non-underwritten) at A$3.80/share - ~A$200mn all-in - a 15.6% discount to last close, and effectively tapping out its annual placement capacity.
Provided the placement is squared away, founder John Rothwell will unload $50mn of his own stock. As such, any M&amp;A activity is now firmly on the backburner. 


Austal (ASB AU)'s Placement Puts The Skids On Near-Term M&A

<ul>
<li>Recently, I surmised FIRB would approve <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)</a>/Hancock's bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure (AZS AU)</a>; but ding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal (ASB AU)</a> tilt. I'm batting 50%. </li>
<li>Whereas FIRB <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240430/pdf/0631wdsf6wd6kn.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gave the green light</a> for Azure this week; reportedly (no official ASX announcement as yet), the Aussie government is "not concerned" with Hanwha's acquisition. Austal gained 3% yesterday.</li>
<li>Even Austal didn't high hopes of securing Aussie approval. Presumably the US government is similarly onboard. This development also signals an expanding AUKUS security pact. </li>
</ul>


Recently, I surmised FIRB would approve Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Hancock's bid for Azure (AZS AU); but ding Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s Austal (ASB AU) tilt. I'm batting 50%. 
Whereas FIRB gave the green light for Azure this week; reportedly (no official ASX announcement as yet), the Aussie government is "not concerned" with Hanwha's acquisition. Austal gained 3% yesterday.
Even Austal didn't high hopes of securing Aussie approval. Presumably the US government is similarly onboard. This development also signals an expanding AUKUS security pact. 


The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government "Approves' Hanwha Ocean's Austal Bid

Australia

Austal Limited is an emerging global defence prime contractor. The Group supplies vessel platforms such as the Littoral Combat Ship and the Joint High Speed Vessel to the United States Navy, an extensive range of patrol and auxiliary vessels to defence forces around the world, and installs and maintains military communications, radar and command and control systems.

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Austal Ltd (ASB AU)

Austal (ASB AU): A Hanwha Bid Is Back In Play

I think Austal needs to engage with Hanwha. Expect FIRB to (at least) approve a 19.9% stake. But Austal's multiple are not "cheap". I would not...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning

There are 12 changes across the ASX family. Flows are big in some stocks and short interest has spiked in a few stocks. Adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Austal Placement: Thematically Hot, Relatively Low Valuation

Austal is looking to raise US$157m, with US$125m from a primary placement and the remainder, a secondary placement. In this note, we will talk...

Nicholas Tan

Austal (ASB AU)'s Placement Puts The Skids On Near-Term M&A

A doubling in the share price over the past year urged a rethink of the company’s funding plans; plus validating its rejection last year of Hanwha...

David Blennerhassett

The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government "Approves' Hanwha Ocean's Austal Bid

Hanwha has withdrawn its non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire Austal and ended talks.Hanwha said it was unable reach a reasonable agreement...

David Blennerhassett

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Austal (ASB AU): A Hanwha Bid Is Back In Play

I think Austal needs to engage with Hanwha. Expect FIRB to (at least) approve a 19.9% stake. But Austal's multiple are not "cheap". I would not...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning

There are 12 changes across the ASX family. Flows are big in some stocks and short interest has spiked in a few stocks. Adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Austal Placement: Thematically Hot, Relatively Low Valuation

Austal is looking to raise US$157m, with US$125m from a primary placement and the remainder, a secondary placement. In this note, we will talk...

Nicholas Tan

Austal (ASB AU)'s Placement Puts The Skids On Near-Term M&A

A doubling in the share price over the past year urged a rethink of the company’s funding plans; plus validating its rejection last year of Hanwha...

David Blennerhassett

The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government "Approves' Hanwha Ocean's Austal Bid

Hanwha has withdrawn its non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire Austal and ended talks.Hanwha said it was unable reach a reasonable agreement...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning