Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Recently, I surmised FIRB would approve <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)</a>/Hancock's bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure (AZS AU)</a>; but ding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal (ASB AU)</a> tilt. I'm batting 50%. </li>
<li>Whereas FIRB <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240430/pdf/0631wdsf6wd6kn.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gave the green light</a> for Azure this week; reportedly (no official ASX announcement as yet), the Aussie government is "not concerned" with Hanwha's acquisition. Austal gained 3% yesterday.</li>
<li>Even Austal didn't high hopes of securing Aussie approval. Presumably the US government is similarly onboard. This development also signals an expanding AUKUS security pact. </li>
</ul>


Recently, I surmised FIRB would approve Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Hancock's bid for Azure (AZS AU); but ding Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s Austal (ASB AU) tilt. I'm batting 50%. 
Whereas FIRB gave the green light for Azure this week; reportedly (no official ASX announcement as yet), the Aussie government is "not concerned" with Hanwha's acquisition. Austal gained 3% yesterday.
Even Austal didn't high hopes of securing Aussie approval. Presumably the US government is similarly onboard. This development also signals an expanding AUKUS security pact. 


The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government "Approves' Hanwha Ocean's Austal Bid

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Hanwha received counsel indicating foreign regulators won't oppose Austal's acquisition. They admit it's restricted to AUKUS countries but argue Korea's ties ease opposition.</li>
<li>Hence, Hanwha Ocean is dropping some heavy hints that even though Austal has turned down the acquisition offer for now, there's still a chance the deal could go through.</li>
<li>The pivotal factor lies in whether Hanwha Ocean can secure approval from the AUKUS countries. Should they succeed, it is anticipated that Austal would be inclined to accept the deal.</li>
</ul>


Hanwha received counsel indicating foreign regulators won't oppose Austal's acquisition. They admit it's restricted to AUKUS countries but argue Korea's ties ease opposition.
Hence, Hanwha Ocean is dropping some heavy hints that even though Austal has turned down the acquisition offer for now, there's still a chance the deal could go through.
The pivotal factor lies in whether Hanwha Ocean can secure approval from the AUKUS countries. Should they succeed, it is anticipated that Austal would be inclined to accept the deal.


What's Additionally Being Heard on Hanwha's Austal Deal from Korea's Local Scene

<ul>
<li>Perth-Based shipbuilder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240402/pdf/0621t3mv6bqzvs.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> a A$2.825/share non-binding indicative proposal, by way of a Scheme, from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>. That's a 28.4% premium to last close.</li>
<li>Austal designs and builds defence vessels for the Australian and US navies. Austal believes Hanwha is unlikely to secure necessary approvals from the Australian and US governments. </li>
<li>Hanwha considers this view to be baseless, that it is a credible buyer, and its capabilities and investment are aligned with government objectives in Australia, the US and South Korea.</li>
</ul>


Perth-Based shipbuilder Austal Ltd (ASB AU) has confirmed a A$2.825/share non-binding indicative proposal, by way of a Scheme, from Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That's a 28.4% premium to last close.
Austal designs and builds defence vessels for the Australian and US navies. Austal believes Hanwha is unlikely to secure necessary approvals from the Australian and US governments. 
Hanwha considers this view to be baseless, that it is a credible buyer, and its capabilities and investment are aligned with government objectives in Australia, the US and South Korea.


Austal (ASB AU): Hanwha's NBIO Is A Non-Starter

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> is drawing takeover interest from Cerberus Capital, <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/cerberus-capital-management-eyes-austal-takeover-has-citi-on-board-20230615-p5dgx2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to AFR</a>. Cerebus joins Arlington Capital Partners and Bondi Partners as rumoured suitors, increasing the bid odds.</li>
<li>Takeover interest in Austal is driven by the desire to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the AUKUS defence pact between Australia, the US and the UK. </li>
<li>Andrew Forrest's 19.34% stake can make or break a deal. Peer multiples point to an offer of at least A$2.80, a 22% premium to the last close.  </li>
</ul>



Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is drawing takeover interest from Cerberus Capital, according to AFR. Cerebus joins Arlington Capital Partners and Bondi Partners as rumoured suitors, increasing the bid odds.
Takeover interest in Austal is driven by the desire to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the AUKUS defence pact between Australia, the US and the UK. 
Andrew Forrest's 19.34% stake can make or break a deal. Peer multiples point to an offer of at least A$2.80, a 22% premium to the last close.  


Austal (ASB AU): Attracting Takeover Interest

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> is in the crosshairs of investors looking to take the company private.</li>
<li>In an announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> said it is regularly involved in discussion with strategic parties to create value for shareholders.</li>
<li>The recent large contract from the US Navy, potentially more contracts in the pipeline and a weak AUD could result in investors paying up to take the company private.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is in the crosshairs of investors looking to take the company private.
In an announcement, Austal Ltd (ASB AU) said it is regularly involved in discussion with strategic parties to create value for shareholders.
The recent large contract from the US Navy, potentially more contracts in the pipeline and a weak AUD could result in investors paying up to take the company private.


Austal (ASB AU): Privatisation on the Cards?

Australia

Austal Limited is an emerging global defence prime contractor. The Group supplies vessel platforms such as the Littoral Combat Ship and the Joint High Speed Vessel to the United States Navy, an extensive range of patrol and auxiliary vessels to defence forces around the world, and installs and maintains military communications, radar and command and control systems.

Austal Ltd (ASB AU)

The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government "Approves' Hanwha Ocean's Austal Bid

I was wrong - Austal is not off-limits to a foreign takeover. Shares are 9.7% adrift of indicative terms. I'd be picking up shares here. The...

David Blennerhassett

What's Additionally Being Heard on Hanwha's Austal Deal from Korea's Local Scene

This post summarizes the additional news circulating in Korea's local scene on Hanwha Ocean's Austal acquisition deal, apart from what Reuters...

Sanghyun Park

Austal (ASB AU): Hanwha's NBIO Is A Non-Starter

Austal is probably off-limits to a foreign takeover. I think Hanwha's proposal is non-starter. Shares are up 10% as I type, but 14% adrift of...

David Blennerhassett

Austal (ASB AU): Attracting Takeover Interest

AFR reports that JF Lehman & Company, a middle-market private equity firm focused on aerospace, defence and maritime sectors, is preparing to lodge...

Arun George

Austal (ASB AU): Privatisation on the Cards?

A potential privatisation on the cards for Austal. The big US Navy contract win & potential contracts due to the AUKUS deal have taken the stock...

Brian Freitas