Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tata Motors plans to split into TML Commercial Vehicles and a merged PV, EV, and JLR entity, creating focused companies.</li>
<li>TVS Motor's July sales rose 9%, with EV sales soaring 61%, reflecting strong growth.</li>
<li>Hero FinCorp seeks INR 3,668 crore through an IPO, aiming to boost capital for lending activities.</li>
</ul>


Tata Motors plans to split into TML Commercial Vehicles and a merged PV, EV, and JLR entity, creating focused companies.
TVS Motor's July sales rose 9%, with EV sales soaring 61%, reflecting strong growth.
Hero FinCorp seeks INR 3,668 crore through an IPO, aiming to boost capital for lending activities.


# 40 India Insight: Tata Motors Demerger, TVS Motor Rise, Hero FinCorp Files DRHP

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~11% YoY in Q1FY25</li><li>However, a few exceptional names drive up the average</li><li>In retail, ex-F&amp;G and value fashion, growth pencilled in is an anaemic 6% as footfalls/demand gets impacted due to (1) the heatwave and (2) fewer wedding days</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~11% YoY in Q1FY25However, a few exceptional names drive up the averageIn retail, ex-F&amp;G and value fashion, growth pencilled in is an anaemic 6% as footfalls/demand gets impacted due to (1) the heatwave and (2) fewer wedding daysContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary: Muted Demand, Value Plays Remain Outliers

<ul><li>Titan: Jewellery (ex-bullion) sales grew 21.8% YoY to INR98.24bn (HSIE: 105.62bn)</li><li>Domestic standalone jewellery sales (ex-bullion) grew 20%</li><li>Profitability took a back seat as elevated gold prices, softened demand and high competitive intensity arm-twisted Titan to increase promotional expenses to defend market share</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Titan: Jewellery (ex-bullion) sales grew 21.8% YoY to INR98.24bn (HSIE: 105.62bn)Domestic standalone jewellery sales (ex-bullion) grew 20%Profitability took a back seat as elevated gold prices, softened demand and high competitive intensity arm-twisted Titan to increase promotional expenses to defend market shareContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Avenue Supermarts

<ul>
<li>A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.</li>
<li>Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
<li>ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.</li>
</ul>


A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.


Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

India

Avenue Supermarts Limited, operating as D-Mart, is an Indian retail corporation that runs a chain of hypermarkets and supermarkets. The company offers a wide range of basic home and personal products, including food, groceries, toiletries, beauty products, garments, kitchenware, and home appliances. Avenue Supermarts was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.

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Avenue Supermarts (DMART IN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

# 40 India Insight: Tata Motors Demerger, TVS Motor Rise, Hero FinCorp Files DRHP

Tata Motors to split for focused operations, TVS Motor's EV sales surge, Hero FinCorp aims to raise capital through IPO.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Consumer Discretionary: Muted Demand, Value Plays Remain Outliers

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~11% YoY in Q1FY25. However, a few exceptional names drive up the average

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Avenue Supermarts

Profitability took a back seat as elevated gold prices, softened demand and high competitive intensity arm-twisted Titan to increase promotional...

HDFC Securities

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

# 40 India Insight: Tata Motors Demerger, TVS Motor Rise, Hero FinCorp Files DRHP

​Tata Motors to split for focused operations, TVS Motor's EV sales surge, Hero FinCorp aims to raise capital through IPO.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Consumer Discretionary: Muted Demand, Value Plays Remain Outliers

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~11% YoY in Q1FY25. However, a few exceptional names drive up the average

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Titan, Avenue Supermarts

Profitability took a back seat as elevated gold prices, softened demand and high competitive intensity arm-twisted Titan to increase promotional...

HDFC Securities

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Commodities Testing Resistance; Buys in Global Defensives (Staples, Utilities, Telecomm), Commodity...

Vermilion Research

Tata Motors to split for focused operations, TVS Motor's EV sales surge, Hero FinCorp aims to raise capital through IPO.