Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> has overshot the mark.</li>
<li>KKR's lock up in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.</li>
<li>Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>. That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
KKR's lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

AviChina Industry & Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Down 18% in the past month, fundamentals for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a>, one of China's leading aviation/defense plays, still appear demanding.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on AviChina are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Down 18% in the past month, fundamentals for AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK), one of China's leading aviation/defense plays, still appear demanding.
Preceding my comments on AviChina are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: AviChina (2357 HK) Coming Up "Cheap"

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 11th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 11th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

AviChina Industry & Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a> has picked up in Mar, and it will continue to chase the HSI and HSCEI, in our view.</li>
<li>At 54.1%, AviChina's discount to its A-share holdings has narrowed 4.2pp YTD, but is still behind the 6.2pp contraction for overall H-A shares. There is more room to catch up.</li>
<li>The increase in defense spending, advancement in domestic commercial aviation and development of the low-altitude economy are major potential drivers.</li>
</ul>


The share price of AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK) has picked up in Mar, and it will continue to chase the HSI and HSCEI, in our view.
At 54.1%, AviChina's discount to its A-share holdings has narrowed 4.2pp YTD, but is still behind the 6.2pp contraction for overall H-A shares. There is more room to catch up.
The increase in defense spending, advancement in domestic commercial aviation and development of the low-altitude economy are major potential drivers.


AviChina Industry (2357 HK): The Discount to Narrow

<ul>
<li>Given its holdings in four A-share subsidiaries, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a> will benefit from the surge in their share prices as mainland markets re-open.</li>
<li>These A-share all lagged benchmark Indices YTD. Avichina's holdings in them are already valued at 2.23x its own market capitalisation. </li>
<li>The historical discount range is 51-70% and currently stands at 55%, suggesting AviChina's share price has not yet excessively priced in the post-Golden Week rally.</li>
</ul>


Given its holdings in four A-share subsidiaries, AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK) will benefit from the surge in their share prices as mainland markets re-open.
These A-share all lagged benchmark Indices YTD. Avichina's holdings in them are already valued at 2.23x its own market capitalisation. 
The historical discount range is 51-70% and currently stands at 55%, suggesting AviChina's share price has not yet excessively priced in the post-Golden Week rally.


AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Excellent Exposure to A-Share Surge

China

AviChina Industry & Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of civil aviation products. The company operates through segments including Aviation Entire Aircraft, Aviation Ancillary System and Related Business, and Aviation Engineering Services, offering products such as helicopters, trainer aircraft, regional jets, and aero-parts. It was founded on April 30, 2003, and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

AviChina Industry & Technology (2357 HK)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: AviChina (2357 HK) Coming Up "Cheap"

Ongoing geopolitical tensions tend to lead to increased defense spending. All told, there should be trickle down benefits to AviChina. I like...

David Blennerhassett

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): The Discount to Narrow

AviChina's share price is on the rise and is expected to continue tracking the HSI and HSCEI, driven by narrower discounts to A-share holdings and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: AviChina (2357 HK) Coming Up "Cheap"

Ongoing geopolitical tensions tend to lead to increased defense spending. All told, there should be trickle down benefits to AviChina. I like...

David Blennerhassett

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, China Mobile, SMIC, HSBC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): The Discount to Narrow

​AviChina's share price is on the rise and is expected to continue tracking the HSI and HSCEI, driven by narrower discounts to A-share holdings and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

AviChina Industry (2357 HK): Excellent Exposure to A-Share Surge

​AviChina is poised to benefit from a surge in A-share subsidiaries' share prices as mainland markets re-open, with the attributable value of its...

Osbert Tang, CFA

AviChina's share price is on the rise and is expected to continue tracking the HSI and HSCEI, driven by narrower discounts to A-share holdings and...

AviChina is poised to benefit from a surge in A-share subsidiaries' share prices as mainland markets re-open, with the attributable value of its...