IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkon-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17346:1" rel="noopener">Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP)</a>'s take-private auction has gone quiet. Today's 13% share-price drop suggests a bidder has walked away or that activists are blocking the deal.</li>
<li>With no publicly available news to explain the fall, the key issue may be that bidders cannot finance an offer meeting the activists’ asking price.</li>
<li>Downside if the deal breaks: The base case is flat to −7% (JPY4,150–4,570) from JPY4,459. The bear case, −18% to −26%, would need an activist exit or weak results.</li>
</ul>



Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP)'s take-private auction has gone quiet. Today's 13% share-price drop suggests a bidder has walked away or that activists are blocking the deal.
With no publicly available news to explain the fall, the key issue may be that bidders cannot finance an offer meeting the activists’ asking price.
Downside if the deal breaks: The base case is flat to −7% (JPY4,150–4,570) from JPY4,459. The bear case, −18% to −26%, would need an activist exit or weak results.


NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Sell-Off Signals a Stalled Auction, but Downside Looks Limited

Highly Differentiated Ideas and Insights, Made in Japan

Made in Japan

Highly Differentiated Ideas and Insights

The mission of MIJ is to become your field guide to Business and Investing in Japan. My goal is to make businesses in Japan more accessible to everyone by breaking down cultural barriers and provide differentiated ideas and insights.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Japan seems to have some kind of ‘problem’ every year. As in, we have a ‘2024 problem’, the 2025 digital cliff, the ‘2027 problem’.</li><li>I know what you’re thinking, we are severely lacking creative names…</li><li>We’re 8+ full months into the year, but I’ll take a jab at an important deadline that we passed in Japan.</li></ul>

Japan seems to have some kind of ‘problem’ every year. As in, we have a ‘2024 problem’, the 2025 digital cliff, the ‘2027 problem’.I know what you’re thinking, we are severely lacking creative names…We’re 8+ full months into the year, but I’ll take a jab at an important deadline that we passed in Japan.

Logistics in Crisis? the 2024 Problem: Part 1

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-02/bain-lone-star-plan-second-round-bids-to-take-nikkon-private" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a> reported that Bain and Lone Star have advanced to the second round of bidding for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkon-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17346:1" rel="noopener">Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP)</a>, which will commence in early September.</li>
<li>Bloomberg also noted that a takeunder is possible. At first glance, the argument for a takeunder looks compelling, particularly as Nikkon shares have materially outperformed peers YTD. </li>
<li>However, a takeunder is unlikely for several reasons and is largely a ruse to dampen expectations. An offer around JPY6,000 remains justifiable.  </li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reported that Bain and Lone Star have advanced to the second round of bidding for Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP), which will commence in early September.
Bloomberg also noted that a takeunder is possible. At first glance, the argument for a takeunder looks compelling, particularly as Nikkon shares have materially outperformed peers YTD. 
However, a takeunder is unlikely for several reasons and is largely a ruse to dampen expectations. An offer around JPY6,000 remains justifiable.  


NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Two Bidders in the Second Round with Suggestions of a Takeunder

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">Familymart (8028 JP)</a> store installed the first set of Amazon Hub Locker delivery lockers in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> will roll out its new lockers to other Familymarts, supermarkets and some railway stations in Tokyo in the coming months.The growing level of competition between Amazon and Seven Eleven and, to some extent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a>, should lead to a rapid roll out of lockers from multiple providers.

A Familymart (8028 JP) store installed the first set of Amazon Hub Locker delivery lockers in September. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) will roll out its new lockers to other Familymarts, supermarkets and some railway stations in Tokyo in the coming months.The growing level of competition between Amazon and Seven Eleven and, to some extent, Yamato Holdings (9064 JP), should lead to a rapid roll out of lockers from multiple providers.

Familymart Installs First Amazon Delivery Lockers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Japan

Maruwa Unyu Kikan Co. Ltd. provides logistical transportation services. The Company conducts normal temperature logistics, low-temperature food distribution, and pharmaceuticals and medical logistics. Maruwa Unyu Kikan also provides logistics consulting and warehousing services.

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AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)

NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Sell-Off Signals a Stalled Auction, but Downside Looks Limited

Nikkon's 13% drop on no publicly available news suggests Bain or Lone Star walked, or bidders can't fund the activists' price. Deal-break downside:...

Arun George

Logistics in Crisis? the 2024 Problem: Part 1

Japan seems to have some kind of ‘problem’ every year. As in, we have a ‘2024 problem’, the 2025 digital cliff, the ‘2027 problem’.

Made in Japan

NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Two Bidders in the Second Round with Suggestions of a Takeunder

Despite suggestions of a potential takeunder, it is unlikely for several reasons and is largely a ruse to dampen expectations. An offer around...

Arun George

Familymart Installs First Amazon Delivery Lockers

A Familymart (8028 JP) store installed the first set of Amazon Hub Locker delivery lockers in September. Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) will roll out its...

Michael Causton

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

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