IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 20 May, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-20/japan-s-nikkon-said-to-weigh-going-private-with-us-funds-to-bid?embedded-checkout=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkon-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17346:1" rel="noopener">Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP)</a> is considering going private and preparing to hold a first-round bidding round in early June. </li>
<li>The shareholder structure is conducive to a privatisation bid as two activists (Farallon and Oasis) hold 51.6 million shares (44.23% ownership ratio). </li>
<li>Bain Capital, Warburg Pincus and Blackstone are expected to take part in the auction. My analysis suggests an offer price of at least 6,200 (7.4% above the last close).</li>
</ul>


On 20 May, Bloomberg reported that Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP) is considering going private and preparing to hold a first-round bidding round in early June. 
The shareholder structure is conducive to a privatisation bid as two activists (Farallon and Oasis) hold 51.6 million shares (44.23% ownership ratio). 
Bain Capital, Warburg Pincus and Blackstone are expected to take part in the auction. My analysis suggests an offer price of at least 6,200 (7.4% above the last close).


NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Thoughts on a Potential Privatisation Offer

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Equity Bottom-Up

AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The company reported revenue of JPY55.2bn (+11.2% YoY), operating profit of JPY3.1bn (+65.8% YoY), and net income of JPY2.0bn (+63.8% YoY).</li><li>E-commerce and Ordinary Temperature 3PL revenue increased by 23.4% YoY, driven by a large-scale logistics center's full-year operation.</li><li>Information system business revenue rose by 22.8% YoY, but operating profit declined by 6.4% YoY due to temporary costs.</li></ul>

The company reported revenue of JPY55.2bn (+11.2% YoY), operating profit of JPY3.1bn (+65.8% YoY), and net income of JPY2.0bn (+63.8% YoY).E-commerce and Ordinary Temperature 3PL revenue increased by 23.4% YoY, driven by a large-scale logistics center's full-year operation.Information system business revenue rose by 22.8% YoY, but operating profit declined by 6.4% YoY due to temporary costs.

AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

<ul><li>The company reported FY03/25 revenue of JPY208.4bn (+4.9% YoY) and operating profit of JPY11.0bn (-20.8% YoY).</li><li>The company forecasts FY03/26 revenue of JPY220.0bn (+5.6% YoY) and operating profit of JPY11.9bn (+8.5% YoY).</li><li>The medium-term management plan targets FY03/28 revenue of JPY280.0bn (+34.4% vs. FY03/25) and operating profit of JPY20.0bn (+82.3%).</li></ul>

The company reported FY03/25 revenue of JPY208.4bn (+4.9% YoY) and operating profit of JPY11.0bn (-20.8% YoY).The company forecasts FY03/26 revenue of JPY220.0bn (+5.6% YoY) and operating profit of JPY11.9bn (+8.5% YoY).The medium-term management plan targets FY03/28 revenue of JPY280.0bn (+34.4% vs. FY03/25) and operating profit of JPY20.0bn (+82.3%).

AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12749:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Corp (9066 JP)</a> shares were up 10.3% based on a <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/antitrust/japans-nissin-corp-said-to-plan-bain-backed-management-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg report</a> that it would be privatised through a Bain-sponsored MBO. </li>
<li>The deal is expected to exceed JPY100 billion. Assuming this refers to a market cap, the implied offer price is around JPY6,500 (21.5% premium to last close).</li>
<li>While the rumoured offer represents an all-time high share price, it is light compared to precedent and peer multiples. A long-dated offer makes it susceptible to a counterbid. </li>
</ul>



Nissin Corp (9066 JP) shares were up 10.3% based on a Bloomberg report that it would be privatised through a Bain-sponsored MBO. 
The deal is expected to exceed JPY100 billion. Assuming this refers to a market cap, the implied offer price is around JPY6,500 (21.5% premium to last close).
While the rumoured offer represents an all-time high share price, it is light compared to precedent and peer multiples. A long-dated offer makes it susceptible to a counterbid. 


Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> bid ¥11,000 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April. </li>
<li>A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in "legally binding bids." No news on those yet, but we have a month.</li>
<li>Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec's bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry 🍿🍿🍿 .</li>
</ul>



Nidec Corp (6594 JP) bid ¥11,000 for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) in December, saying it expected to launch on 4-April. It launched its ¥11,000 bid on 4-April. 
A Nikkei article in March suggested Makino had found multiple competing bidders, some who had put in "legally binding bids." No news on those yet, but we have a month.
Earnings are 9-May. Strategy on timing for Makino differs according to its desired outcome. It has to opine on Nidec's bid by about 18 April. Be long. Carry 🍿🍿🍿 .


Nidec Launches on Makino Milling (6135) - Others Presumably Wait In the Wings

Japan

Maruwa Unyu Kikan Co. Ltd. provides logistical transportation services. The Company conducts normal temperature logistics, low-temperature food distribution, and pharmaceuticals and medical logistics. Maruwa Unyu Kikan also provides logistics consulting and warehousing services.

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AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)

NIKKON Holdings (9072 JP): Thoughts on a Potential Privatisation Offer

Bloomberg reported that Nikkon is considering going private and preparing to hold a first-round bidding round in early June. My analysis suggests...

Arun George