Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MHI is up nearly 60% year-to-date to 46x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-26 and 27x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-30.</li>
<li>By then, we expect Air, Defense &amp; Space revenues to double and the division's operating margin to rise from 10% to 15%, which is the likely cap on profitability. </li>
<li>Given Japan's uncertain finances and the long time horizon that should already be discounted, we recommend profit taking. </li>
</ul>


MHI is up nearly 60% year-to-date to 46x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-26 and 27x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-30.
By then, we expect Air, Defense &amp; Space revenues to double and the division's operating margin to rise from 10% to 15%, which is the likely cap on profitability. 
Given Japan's uncertain finances and the long time horizon that should already be discounted, we recommend profit taking. 


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

Hanwha Aerospace / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 3.6 trillion won (US$2.5 billion), which is the largest ever rights offering capital raise in Korea.</li>
<li>We believe this capital raise is likely to result in higher concerns about shares dilution at Hanwha Aerospace and negatively impact its share price.</li>
<li>It is also likely to have a significant negative impact on the entire Korean defense stocks, as it signals a top on this sector. </li>
</ul>


Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 3.6 trillion won (US$2.5 billion), which is the largest ever rights offering capital raise in Korea.
We believe this capital raise is likely to result in higher concerns about shares dilution at Hanwha Aerospace and negatively impact its share price.
It is also likely to have a significant negative impact on the entire Korean defense stocks, as it signals a top on this sector. 


Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>Our estimations for FY 2023 annual revenue range at around £24,234 million and for 2024 at around £26,415 million.</li><li>The company’s annual revenue reached £21,258 million in 2022 compared to £19,521 million in 2021, posting an increase by 8.9%. BAE Systems operating profit for FY 2022 was £1,989 million, increased by 11.87% compared to £1,778 million for the corresponding period of 2021.</li><li>In addition, EBITDA amounted to £3,151 million in 2022, while EBT and EATAM amounted to £1,989 million and £1,591 million respectively.</li></ul>

Our estimations for FY 2023 annual revenue range at around £24,234 million and for 2024 at around £26,415 million.The company’s annual revenue reached £21,258 million in 2022 compared to £19,521 million in 2021, posting an increase by 8.9%. BAE Systems operating profit for FY 2022 was £1,989 million, increased by 11.87% compared to £1,778 million for the corresponding period of 2021.In addition, EBITDA amounted to £3,151 million in 2022, while EBT and EATAM amounted to £1,989 million and £1,591 million respectively.

United Kingdom

BAE Systems plc develops, delivers, and supports advanced defense and aerospace systems. The Group manufactures military aircraft, surface ships, submarines, radar, avionics, communications, electronics, and guided weapon systems. BAE Systems services clients located throughout the world.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

BAE Systems (BAESY US)

MHI (7011 JP): Take Profits

Take profits, but don't short the stock without an obvious catalyst (high valuation doesn't count). Rising Japanese defense outlays should drive...

Scott Foster

Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)

Hanwha Aerospace announced a rights offering capital raise of 3.6 trillion won. We believe this capital raise is likely to result in higher...

Douglas Kim

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

Company Update - BAE SYSTEMS PLC

The company’s annual revenue reached £21,258 million in 2022 compared to £19,521 million in 2021, posting an increase by 8.9%. BAE Systems...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)