Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ducommun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6622:1" rel="noopener">Ducommun</a> will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 18 September, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/droneshield-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30509:1" rel="noopener">DroneShield</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-cat-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37829:1" rel="noopener">Red Cat Holdings</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$695m.</li>
<li>Float and capping changes result in over 0.5x ADV to trade in some stocks and those could be interesting in the next week.</li>
</ul>



Ducommun will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 18 September, while DroneShield and Red Cat Holdings will be deleted.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$695m.
Float and capping changes result in over 0.5x ADV to trade in some stocks and those could be interesting in the next week.


MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 1 Add; 2 Deletes; US$695m Trade

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Three 2026 themes: (i) Continued AI spending boom, moats and monopolies to thrive, (ii) Recently commenced commodity super-cycle, especially in copper, (iii) Continued defense spending boom amid accelerating geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>These themes are well-discussed over the past year, but recent concerns about their longevity (especially AI spending) have derated the beneficiary stocks. We think it's time to re-focus on them.</li>
<li>Our top picks: TSMC (the monopoly AI enabler), Zijin Mining (the gold and copper giant, benefitting from two super cycles) and Hanwha Aerospace (the biggest beneficiary of defense spending boom).</li>
</ul>


Three 2026 themes: (i) Continued AI spending boom, moats and monopolies to thrive, (ii) Recently commenced commodity super-cycle, especially in copper, (iii) Continued defense spending boom amid accelerating geopolitical tensions.
These themes are well-discussed over the past year, but recent concerns about their longevity (especially AI spending) have derated the beneficiary stocks. We think it's time to re-focus on them.
Our top picks: TSMC (the monopoly AI enabler), Zijin Mining (the gold and copper giant, benefitting from two super cycles) and Hanwha Aerospace (the biggest beneficiary of defense spending boom).


2026 High Conviction: Three Themes, Three Top Picks

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Since the last rebalancing on 30th January, our portfolio appreciated 3.4% against MSCI Asia-ex-Japan's 1%. Since inception on May 15, 2025, our portfolio has appreciated 35.8%, vs MXASJ's 32.8%. </li>
<li>Since last reshuffle, the portfolio was driven by Korea (2.57% return contribution), Taiwan (1.3%) and India (0.75%). Four Chinese internet stocks, Alibaba, Tencent, Tencent Music and Netease, contributed -1.97% return.</li>
<li>We now exclude Dr Lal Pathlabs in India and include Tata Steel. We also include Maybank in Malaysia. All our inclusions have seen sharp EPS estimate upgrades lately.</li>
</ul>


Since the last rebalancing on 30th January, our portfolio appreciated 3.4% against MSCI Asia-ex-Japan's 1%. Since inception on May 15, 2025, our portfolio has appreciated 35.8%, vs MXASJ's 32.8%. 
Since last reshuffle, the portfolio was driven by Korea (2.57% return contribution), Taiwan (1.3%) and India (0.75%). Four Chinese internet stocks, Alibaba, Tencent, Tencent Music and Netease, contributed -1.97% return.
We now exclude Dr Lal Pathlabs in India and include Tata Steel. We also include Maybank in Malaysia. All our inclusions have seen sharp EPS estimate upgrades lately.


Asian Equities: Model Portfolio - We Reshuffle India, Add Malaysia; Korea Remains Biggest Overweight

<ul>
<li>Asian rerating is over. A new chapter has commenced. Asian earnings estimate upgrades are in full swing and so is an earnings-driven rally, particularly in a few markets and sectors.</li>
<li>Korea is the most notable earnings-driven market. The market has appreciated 12.4% since late October and its forward PE has declined 17%. Hong Kong and Indonesia also fit the bill.</li>
<li>Nine market-sectors have the strongest EPS revisions and strongest earnings growth forecasts. HK materials, Korean technology and utilities, Taiwan technology, Indonesian materials, Thai technology and communications and Malaysia tech services.</li>
</ul>


Asian rerating is over. A new chapter has commenced. Asian earnings estimate upgrades are in full swing and so is an earnings-driven rally, particularly in a few markets and sectors.
Korea is the most notable earnings-driven market. The market has appreciated 12.4% since late October and its forward PE has declined 17%. Hong Kong and Indonesia also fit the bill.
Nine market-sectors have the strongest EPS revisions and strongest earnings growth forecasts. HK materials, Korean technology and utilities, Taiwan technology, Indonesian materials, Thai technology and communications and Malaysia tech services.


Asian Equities: An Emerging Earnings-Driven Rally - Watch These Three Markets and Nine Sectors

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

South Korea

Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. operates as an aircraft parts manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells aircraft gas turbine engine products, aircraft compressors, low pressure turbines, and other products. Hanwha Aerospace markets its products worldwide.

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Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 1 Add; 2 Deletes; US$695m Trade

1 add, 2 deletes, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$695m....

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction: Three Themes, Three Top Picks

2026 began with a bang & so did our High Conviction ideas. In less than 2 weeks TSMC is up 9.7%, Zijin Mining up 8.4% & Hanwha Aerospace a...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio - We Reshuffle India, Add Malaysia; Korea Remains Biggest Overweight

Our Portfolio outperformed MXASJ since last reshuffle & since inception, driven by KR, TW & IN. We include reasonably valued stocks with strong...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: An Emerging Earnings-Driven Rally - Watch These Three Markets and Nine Sectors

Asian markets are experiencing an earnings-driven rally with earnings est upgrades, particularly in KR, HK, and Indonesia. 9 market-sectors show...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: 1 Add; 2 Deletes; US$695m Trade

1 add, 2 deletes, float changes and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$695m....

Brian Freitas

2026 High Conviction: Three Themes, Three Top Picks

2026 began with a bang & so did our High Conviction ideas. In less than 2 weeks TSMC is up 9.7%, Zijin Mining up 8.4% & Hanwha Aerospace a...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio - We Reshuffle India, Add Malaysia; Korea Remains Biggest Overweight

​Our Portfolio outperformed MXASJ since last reshuffle & since inception, driven by KR, TW & IN. We include reasonably valued stocks with strong...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: An Emerging Earnings-Driven Rally - Watch These Three Markets and Nine Sectors

​Asian markets are experiencing an earnings-driven rally with earnings est upgrades, particularly in KR, HK, and Indonesia. 9 market-sectors show...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

Our Portfolio outperformed MXASJ since last reshuffle & since inception, driven by KR, TW & IN. We include reasonably valued stocks with strong...

Asian markets are experiencing an earnings-driven rally with earnings est upgrades, particularly in KR, HK, and Indonesia. 9 market-sectors show...