India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Indian automobile industry experienced a significant boost in sales in September 2025, driven by delayed purchases and the positive effects of GST reductions.</li>
<li>The increase in retail sales highlights a strong recovery in the sector, which is expected to continue into October as the full impact of the GST cuts becomes clear.</li>
<li>The sector’s strong performance and high consumer demand suggest a positive outlook for the coming months, with several key OEMs set for sustained growth.</li>
</ul>


The Indian automobile industry experienced a significant boost in sales in September 2025, driven by delayed purchases and the positive effects of GST reductions.
The increase in retail sales highlights a strong recovery in the sector, which is expected to continue into October as the full impact of the GST cuts becomes clear.
The sector’s strong performance and high consumer demand suggest a positive outlook for the coming months, with several key OEMs set for sustained growth.


The Beat Ideas: Indian Auto Industry: GST Cuts Power Record Festive Sales Surge

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Over Apr–Sep’26, cumulative 2W domestic sales grew by 1% YoY to 97.87 Lc units, as declines at Hero (-2%) and Bajaj (-8%) offset strong performances from TVS (+15%) and RE (+27%).</li><li>In contrast, 2W exports surged 24% YoY to 22.40 Lc units, reflecting improved traction in global markets, especially Africa and Latin America.</li><li>On a YTD basis, 3W domestic wholesales rose 12% YoY to 4.02 Lc units, led by M&amp;M (+32%), TVS (+43%), while Bajaj remained flat.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Over Apr–Sep’26, cumulative 2W domestic sales grew by 1% YoY to 97.87 Lc units, as declines at Hero (-2%) and Bajaj (-8%) offset strong performances from TVS (+15%) and RE (+27%).In contrast, 2W exports surged 24% YoY to 22.40 Lc units, reflecting improved traction in global markets, especially Africa and Latin America.On a YTD basis, 3W domestic wholesales rose 12% YoY to 4.02 Lc units, led by M&amp;M (+32%), TVS (+43%), while Bajaj remained flat.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - September 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Demand for entry-level cars and two wheelers has remained subdued post FY19 as emission norms, safety norms and general inflation have led to an increased cost of the vehicle</li><li>The salary/wage of the consumer has not risen in line with vehicle cost inflation, thus increasing the affordability gap</li><li>We believe that there are customers who have been waiting on the sidelines to purchase a vehicle as and when it becomes affordable to them</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand for entry-level cars and two wheelers has remained subdued post FY19 as emission norms, safety norms and general inflation have led to an increased cost of the vehicleThe salary/wage of the consumer has not risen in line with vehicle cost inflation, thus increasing the affordability gapWe believe that there are customers who have been waiting on the sidelines to purchase a vehicle as and when it becomes affordable to themContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Autos: GST Rate Cuts to Revive the Entry-Level Segment

<ul>
<li>India’s GST 2.0 reform slashes tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare while exempting insurance and education.</li>
<li>The move could accelerate consumption, especially in rural India, but risks straining government revenues and widening fiscal deficits.</li>
<li>If implemented smoothly, GST 2.0 may drive a multi-sector consumption upcycle, though revenue trade-offs and uneven pass-through pose risks.</li>
</ul>


India’s GST 2.0 reform slashes tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare while exempting insurance and education.
The move could accelerate consumption, especially in rural India, but risks straining government revenues and widening fiscal deficits.
If implemented smoothly, GST 2.0 may drive a multi-sector consumption upcycle, though revenue trade-offs and uneven pass-through pose risks.


Thematic Report on GST 2.0 Regime: Who Gains, Who Loses as India Bets on Demand Revival.

<ul>
<li>The GST Council has approved rate cuts , lowering from 28-29% to 18% for 2Ws (&lt;350cc), 3Ws, CVs, tractors and small PVs, while larger cars move to 40% from 43-50%. 
</li>
<li>
Price cuts of 2–9% in mass-market vehicles could spur demand just as rural sentiment, interest rates, and fiscal transfers turn supportive, creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.</li>
<li>The rationalization removes structural distortions, improves affordability, and positions the festive season as a turning point for sector volumes and improved margins, though premium bikes and fleet operators face headwinds.</li>
</ul>


The GST Council has approved rate cuts , lowering from 28-29% to 18% for 2Ws (&lt;350cc), 3Ws, CVs, tractors and small PVs, while larger cars move to 40% from 43-50%. 


Price cuts of 2–9% in mass-market vehicles could spur demand just as rural sentiment, interest rates, and fiscal transfers turn supportive, creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.
The rationalization removes structural distortions, improves affordability, and positions the festive season as a turning point for sector volumes and improved margins, though premium bikes and fleet operators face headwinds.


GST Reform in Indian Auto Sector: Demand Revival Meets Margin Expansion Ahead of Festive Surge.

India

Bajaj Auto Limited manufactures and distributes motorized two-wheeled and three-wheeled scooters, motorcycles and mopeds.

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Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)

The Beat Ideas: Indian Auto Industry: GST Cuts Power Record Festive Sales Surge

Indian auto industry sees surge in September 2025 sales due to delayed purchases and GST reductions, with strong recovery expected to continue...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - September 2025

Over Apr–Sep’26, cumulative 2W domestic sales grew by 1% YoY to 97.87 Lc units, as declines at Hero (-2%) and Bajaj (-8%) offset strong...

Axis Direct

Autos: GST Rate Cuts to Revive the Entry-Level Segment

Demand for entry-level cars and two wheelers has remained subdued post FY19 as emission norms, safety norms and general inflation have led to an...

HDFC Securities

Thematic Report on GST 2.0 Regime: Who Gains, Who Loses as India Bets on Demand Revival.

India's GST 2.0 reform cuts tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare, potentially boosting consumption but risking fiscal deficits.

Sudarshan Bhandari

GST Reform in Indian Auto Sector: Demand Revival Meets Margin Expansion Ahead of Festive Surge.

GST Council approves rate cuts, boosting demand for mass-market vehicles and creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Beat Ideas: Indian Auto Industry: GST Cuts Power Record Festive Sales Surge

​Indian auto industry sees surge in September 2025 sales due to delayed purchases and GST reductions, with strong recovery expected to continue...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - September 2025

Over Apr–Sep’26, cumulative 2W domestic sales grew by 1% YoY to 97.87 Lc units, as declines at Hero (-2%) and Bajaj (-8%) offset strong...

Axis Direct

Autos: GST Rate Cuts to Revive the Entry-Level Segment

Demand for entry-level cars and two wheelers has remained subdued post FY19 as emission norms, safety norms and general inflation have led to an...

HDFC Securities

Thematic Report on GST 2.0 Regime: Who Gains, Who Loses as India Bets on Demand Revival.

​India's GST 2.0 reform cuts tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare, potentially boosting consumption but risking fiscal deficits.

Sudarshan Bhandari

GST Reform in Indian Auto Sector: Demand Revival Meets Margin Expansion Ahead of Festive Surge.

​GST Council approves rate cuts, boosting demand for mass-market vehicles and creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Indian auto industry sees surge in September 2025 sales due to delayed purchases and GST reductions, with strong recovery expected to continue...

India's GST 2.0 reform cuts tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare, potentially boosting consumption but risking fiscal deficits.

GST Council approves rate cuts, boosting demand for mass-market vehicles and creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.