European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.</li>
<li>Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.</li>
<li>Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.
Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.
Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.


BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

<ul>
<li>Sabadell's TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.</li>
<li>BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.</li>
<li>Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell's TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.
BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.
Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.


BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands</li>
<li>Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.</li>
</ul>


Regional rotation places DM Europe as clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds.
Seventy-Five percent of funds are overweight UK stocks, with 69.6% overweight France and 70.2% overweight the Netherlands
Novo Nordisk, ASML, Schneider Electric, and AstraZeneca remain key holdings, while a resurgence from European banks and select names like Spotify and LSEG is also starting to stand out.


Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

<ul>
<li>Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.</li>
<li>Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.</li>
<li>September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.</li>
</ul>


Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.
September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.


BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

<ul>
<li>Sabadell trades above the implied offer value, signaling investor expectations of a revised bid or deal failure.</li>
<li>Government-Imposed integration freeze severely impairs BBVA’s ability to realize synergies.</li>
<li>Political dependence on Catalan nationalist parties complicates execution despite formal regulatory clearance.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell trades above the implied offer value, signaling investor expectations of a revised bid or deal failure.
Government-Imposed integration freeze severely impairs BBVA’s ability to realize synergies.
Political dependence on Catalan nationalist parties complicates execution despite formal regulatory clearance.


BBVA/Sabadell: Trading Above Terms After Government Imposes Integration Freeze

Spain

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail, wholesale, and investment banking services.  The Bank offers consumer and mortgage loans, private banking, asset management, insurance, mutual funds, and securities brokerage services.  It operates in Europe, Latin America, United States, China and Turkey.

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

TSB sale and €0.50 dividend reshape Sabadell’s standalone value. With a –8.1% spread, BBVA’s offer looks stale. Market now pricing in a bump or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

TSB sale reshapes Sabadell’s story: BBVA’s bid looks stale, €0.50 dividend looms, and options imply upside. Long SAB / Short BBVA remains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Europe Reasserted: Consensus Builds as Europe Reclaims Ground from the U.S.

Regional rotation places Developed Europe as a clear consensus overweight among active Global equity funds, with over 90% of funds positioned ahead...

Steven Holden

BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

Sabadell trades above BBVA’s bid on expectations of a deal bump or dividend. With TSB monetisation ahead and liquid options in play, upside...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell: Trading Above Terms After Government Imposes Integration Freeze

BBVA’s hostile bid for Sabadell faces political resistance and integration restrictions. Sabadell trades above offer, implying market expects a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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