Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal</li>
<li>AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed</li>
<li>The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise</li>
</ul>


The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal
AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed
The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Strategic Investment with High Returns: UniCredit's acquisition of a 9.7% stake in Alpha Bank at a forward P/E of 7.5x, compared to UniCredit's 8.8x, offers a non-dilutive, high-return investment opportunity.</li>
<li>Optionality for Control: UniCredit has signaled it will seek regulatory approval to raise its Alpha stake to 29.9%, enhancing strategic influence and potentially paving the way for future M&amp;A integration.</li>
<li>Options strategy: Investors can consider a long call spread strategy on Alpha Bank's stock, leveraging potential upside from UniCredit's increased stake while limiting downside risk through defined strike prices.</li>
</ul>


Strategic Investment with High Returns: UniCredit's acquisition of a 9.7% stake in Alpha Bank at a forward P/E of 7.5x, compared to UniCredit's 8.8x, offers a non-dilutive, high-return investment opportunity.
Optionality for Control: UniCredit has signaled it will seek regulatory approval to raise its Alpha stake to 29.9%, enhancing strategic influence and potentially paving the way for future M&amp;A integration.
Options strategy: Investors can consider a long call spread strategy on Alpha Bank's stock, leveraging potential upside from UniCredit's increased stake while limiting downside risk through defined strike prices.


Alpha Accumulation: UniCredit’s Strategic Wedge in Greek Banking

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Winner winner chicken dinner.  A Nikke article suggests a bid higher than ¥6tn for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. In addition, people  thinking about ¥18,400/share are going about this incorrectly. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)</a> pops on its IPO debut. The HKEx has issued a high concentration warning</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a> is still ragingly cheap given the move to delist dual parent/sub listings and having a global footprint. Own it here and now.</li>
</ul>


Winner winner chicken dinner.  A Nikke article suggests a bid higher than ¥6tn for Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In addition, people  thinking about ¥18,400/share are going about this incorrectly. 

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) pops on its IPO debut. The HKEx has issued a high concentration warning

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) is still ragingly cheap given the move to delist dual parent/sub listings and having a global footprint. Own it here and now.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, CATL, Mitsubishi Logisnext, Mayne Pharma, Melco

<ul>
<li>Banco BPM controls 89.949% of Anima and is likely to pursue full ownership via a second offer or squeeze-out, offering arbitrageurs a clear path to monetize residual shares.</li>
<li>At €6.425, investors ahead of the 19 May ex-date can earn €0.333 net dividend plus €6.55 in a follow-up bid, implying a 7.1–8.9% spread with attractive upside.</li>
<li>Annualized returns could reach 45–60%, though investors must weigh liquidity constraints, execution risk, and dividend withholding tax—especially for retail holders—when sizing or structuring the trade.</li>
</ul>


Banco BPM controls 89.949% of Anima and is likely to pursue full ownership via a second offer or squeeze-out, offering arbitrageurs a clear path to monetize residual shares.
At €6.425, investors ahead of the 19 May ex-date can earn €0.333 net dividend plus €6.55 in a follow-up bid, implying a 7.1–8.9% spread with attractive upside.
Annualized returns could reach 45–60%, though investors must weigh liquidity constraints, execution risk, and dividend withholding tax—especially for retail holders—when sizing or structuring the trade.


Italy

Banco BPM S.p.A. operates as a bank. The Bank offers private and corporate banking, loans, e-banking, investment, and other related services. Banco BPM serves customers in Italy.

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Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)

AT1 Bonds; Life After Credit Suisse

The CS AT1 write-off due to UBS's acquisition is an unconventional action on bondholders versus shareholders, implying a rising banks' cost of...

Victor Galliano

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Alpha Accumulation: UniCredit’s Strategic Wedge in Greek Banking

UniCredit scales up in Alpha Bank with a high-return, non-dilutive investment, signaling deeper M&A intent. Tactical options trades offer...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, CATL, Mitsubishi Logisnext, Mayne Pharma, Melco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Closing the Spread: Banking on Anima

Banco BPM aims for full ownership of Anima, offering arbitrageurs a profitable opportunity with potential annualized returns of 45-60% if they...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AT1 Bonds; Life After Credit Suisse

The CS AT1 write-off due to UBS's acquisition is an unconventional action on bondholders versus shareholders, implying a rising banks' cost of...

Victor Galliano

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Alpha Accumulation: UniCredit’s Strategic Wedge in Greek Banking

UniCredit scales up in Alpha Bank with a high-return, non-dilutive investment, signaling deeper M&A intent. Tactical options trades offer...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, CATL, Mitsubishi Logisnext, Mayne Pharma, Melco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Closing the Spread: Banking on Anima

​Banco BPM aims for full ownership of Anima, offering arbitrageurs a profitable opportunity with potential annualized returns of 45-60% if they...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Banco BPM aims for full ownership of Anima, offering arbitrageurs a profitable opportunity with potential annualized returns of 45-60% if they...