European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Crédit Agricole already owns 29.3% of Banco BPM, leaving only a modest gap to the roughly one-third share it is reportedly expected to receive in a break-up.</li>
<li>A plausible split would leave UniCredit with most of BPM’s Commercial and CIB businesses, while CA takes Agos, insurance links and selected branches or customers.</li>
<li>We value a joint UniCredit/CA transaction at €18.50/share versus BAMI at €16.40; our probability-weighted value is €16.87.</li>
</ul>


Crédit Agricole already owns 29.3% of Banco BPM, leaving only a modest gap to the roughly one-third share it is reportedly expected to receive in a break-up.
A plausible split would leave UniCredit with most of BPM’s Commercial and CIB businesses, while CA takes Agos, insurance links and selected branches or customers.
We value a joint UniCredit/CA transaction at €18.50/share versus BAMI at €16.40; our probability-weighted value is €16.87.


Unicredit & Crédit Agricole / Banco BPM: Divide and Bid

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

<ul>
<li>Intesa has raised its offer to €11.375/share, only 0.9% above MPS, while making approval of the BAMI/BGN plan incompatible with its bid.</li>
<li>Delfin’s 17.6% Backing strengthens Intesa ahead of the 29 October vote, but Lovaglio still offers shareholders exposure to further consolidation upside.</li>
<li>Our probability-weighted value is €11.64/share, 3.2% above spot; upside beyond Intesa comes from a further sweetener or the MPS-led strategy.</li>
</ul>


Intesa has raised its offer to €11.375/share, only 0.9% above MPS, while making approval of the BAMI/BGN plan incompatible with its bid.
Delfin’s 17.6% Backing strengthens Intesa ahead of the 29 October vote, but Lovaglio still offers shareholders exposure to further consolidation upside.
Our probability-weighted value is €11.64/share, 3.2% above spot; upside beyond Intesa comes from a further sweetener or the MPS-led strategy.


<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

<ul>
<li>AGCM has opened an in-depth review of Intesa/MPS, with specific concerns around local banking overlaps and Intesa’s prospective Generali stake.</li>
<li>Crédit Agricole’s 29.3% BPM holding raises the execution hurdle for MPS, although the revised synergy split strengthens the economics of the BPM-only route.</li>
<li>Our revised value is €11.85/share, slightly below spot. Intesa remains the likelier outcome, while BPM still looks the more realistic of MPS’s two bids.</li>
</ul>


AGCM has opened an in-depth review of Intesa/MPS, with specific concerns around local banking overlaps and Intesa’s prospective Generali stake.
Crédit Agricole’s 29.3% BPM holding raises the execution hurdle for MPS, although the revised synergy split strengthens the economics of the BPM-only route.
Our revised value is €11.85/share, slightly below spot. Intesa remains the likelier outcome, while BPM still looks the more realistic of MPS’s two bids.


Italy

Banco BPM SpA is a leading Italian banking group, providing a wide range of financial products and services including retail banking, corporate banking, private banking, investment banking, asset management, and insurance. The bank caters to private customers, small businesses, and large corporations across Italy. It was formed on January 1, 2017, from the merger of Banco Popolare and Banca Popolare di Milano, and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.

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Banco BPM (BAMI IM)

Unicredit & Crédit Agricole / Banco BPM: Divide and Bid

Crédit Agricole already owns most of the one-third of Banco BPM it could receive in a break-up. That makes the reported UniCredit/CA structure more...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Intesa / MPS: For a Few Cents More

Intesa’s extra €0.25 leaves little spread, but the 29 October vote now forces MPS shareholders to choose between €11.375 today and Lovaglio’s...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

Intesa / MPS: One Bid, Two Headaches

AGCM has raised the remedy risk for Intesa just as Crédit Agricole hardens its stance on BPM. The Italian banking endgame now looks less...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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