Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Winner winner chicken dinner.  A Nikke article suggests a bid higher than ¥6tn for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. In addition, people  thinking about ¥18,400/share are going about this incorrectly. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)</a> pops on its IPO debut. The HKEx has issued a high concentration warning</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a> is still ragingly cheap given the move to delist dual parent/sub listings and having a global footprint. Own it here and now.</li>
</ul>


Winner winner chicken dinner.  A Nikke article suggests a bid higher than ¥6tn for Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In addition, people  thinking about ¥18,400/share are going about this incorrectly. 

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) pops on its IPO debut. The HKEx has issued a high concentration warning

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) is still ragingly cheap given the move to delist dual parent/sub listings and having a global footprint. Own it here and now.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, CATL, Mitsubishi Logisnext, Mayne Pharma, Melco

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Consob suspends offer: Italy’s market regulator halts UniCredit’s bid amid unresolved regulatory conditions and growing uncertainty.</li>
<li>Shareholders push back: With Crédit Agricole holding 19.8%, resistance builds against a bid lacking premium or clarity.</li>
<li>Higher bid unlikely, but Possible: UniCredit has room to raise terms, but tighter capital impact and ROI pressure post-DC rejection make an improved offer improbable without regulatory or shareholder shifts.</li>
</ul>


Consob suspends offer: Italy’s market regulator halts UniCredit’s bid amid unresolved regulatory conditions and growing uncertainty.
Shareholders push back: With Crédit Agricole holding 19.8%, resistance builds against a bid lacking premium or clarity.
Higher bid unlikely, but Possible: UniCredit has room to raise terms, but tighter capital impact and ROI pressure post-DC rejection make an improved offer improbable without regulatory or shareholder shifts.


No Compromise: Deal on Hold, and UniCredit Won’t Pay More

<ul>
<li>Banco BPM controls 89.949% of Anima and is likely to pursue full ownership via a second offer or squeeze-out, offering arbitrageurs a clear path to monetize residual shares.</li>
<li>At €6.425, investors ahead of the 19 May ex-date can earn €0.333 net dividend plus €6.55 in a follow-up bid, implying a 7.1–8.9% spread with attractive upside.</li>
<li>Annualized returns could reach 45–60%, though investors must weigh liquidity constraints, execution risk, and dividend withholding tax—especially for retail holders—when sizing or structuring the trade.</li>
</ul>


Banco BPM controls 89.949% of Anima and is likely to pursue full ownership via a second offer or squeeze-out, offering arbitrageurs a clear path to monetize residual shares.
At €6.425, investors ahead of the 19 May ex-date can earn €0.333 net dividend plus €6.55 in a follow-up bid, implying a 7.1–8.9% spread with attractive upside.
Annualized returns could reach 45–60%, though investors must weigh liquidity constraints, execution risk, and dividend withholding tax—especially for retail holders—when sizing or structuring the trade.


<ul>
<li>Despite losing access to favorable capital treatment under the Danish Compromise, Banco BPM is proceeding with its Anima acquisition, leveraging mitigation measures to maintain a CET1 ratio above 13%.</li>
<li>UniCredit’s €14B all-share offer for Banco BPM moves forward despite ECB rejecting the Danish Compromise, with capital strength and shareholder backing keeping the deal on a strong trajectory.</li>
<li>CEO Andrea Orcel’s dealmaking expertise and UniCredit’s 42.9% share price rise since the bid increase confidence in the bank’s ability to complete the acquisition and extract long-term value.</li>
</ul>


Despite losing access to favorable capital treatment under the Danish Compromise, Banco BPM is proceeding with its Anima acquisition, leveraging mitigation measures to maintain a CET1 ratio above 13%.
UniCredit’s €14B all-share offer for Banco BPM moves forward despite ECB rejecting the Danish Compromise, with capital strength and shareholder backing keeping the deal on a strong trajectory.
CEO Andrea Orcel’s dealmaking expertise and UniCredit’s 42.9% share price rise since the bid increase confidence in the bank’s ability to complete the acquisition and extract long-term value.


Danish or Not, UniCredit’s Consolidation Appetite Is Intact

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>. Done. Finally. Look at whether you could borrow shares just before the close of the tender and short tender and buy back post ex-date</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group Ltd (REA AU)</a> rolls over as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costar-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16907:1" rel="noopener">Costar Group (CSGP US)</a> bets big on key rival Domain <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill (3978 JP)</a>'s tender extended. Still not a done deal. Look to buy shares at terms with the goal of NOT tendering and owning the back end.</li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP). Done. Finally. Look at whether you could borrow shares just before the close of the tender and short tender and buy back post ex-date

REA Group Ltd (REA AU) rolls over as Costar Group (CSGP US) bets big on key rival Domain Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU).

Macromill (3978 JP)'s tender extended. Still not a done deal. Look to buy shares at terms with the goal of NOT tendering and owning the back end.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Electric, REA Group, Macromill, CNBM, Prosus/Tencent

Italy

Banco BPM SpA is a leading Italian banking group, providing a wide range of financial products and services including retail banking, corporate banking, private banking, investment banking, asset management, and insurance. The bank caters to private customers, small businesses, and large corporations across Italy. It was formed on January 1, 2017, from the merger of Banco Popolare and Banca Popolare di Milano, and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.

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Banco BPM (BAMI IM)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, CATL, Mitsubishi Logisnext, Mayne Pharma, Melco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

No Compromise: Deal on Hold, and UniCredit Won’t Pay More

UniCredit’s bid for Banco BPM faces regulatory roadblocks, shareholder pushback, and capital strain. With DC off the table, a higher offer is...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Closing the Spread: Banking on Anima

Banco BPM aims for full ownership of Anima, offering arbitrageurs a profitable opportunity with potential annualized returns of 45-60% if they...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Danish or Not, UniCredit’s Consolidation Appetite Is Intact

Banco BPM pushes forward with Anima acquisition despite loss of capital treatment, UniCredit's offer remains strong with CEO Orcel's expertise and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Electric, REA Group, Macromill, CNBM, Prosus/Tencent

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, CATL, Mitsubishi Logisnext, Mayne Pharma, Melco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

No Compromise: Deal on Hold, and UniCredit Won’t Pay More

UniCredit’s bid for Banco BPM faces regulatory roadblocks, shareholder pushback, and capital strain. With DC off the table, a higher offer is...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Closing the Spread: Banking on Anima

​Banco BPM aims for full ownership of Anima, offering arbitrageurs a profitable opportunity with potential annualized returns of 45-60% if they...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Danish or Not, UniCredit’s Consolidation Appetite Is Intact

​Banco BPM pushes forward with Anima acquisition despite loss of capital treatment, UniCredit's offer remains strong with CEO Orcel's expertise and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Electric, REA Group, Macromill, CNBM, Prosus/Tencent

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Banco BPM aims for full ownership of Anima, offering arbitrageurs a profitable opportunity with potential annualized returns of 45-60% if they...

Banco BPM pushes forward with Anima acquisition despite loss of capital treatment, UniCredit's offer remains strong with CEO Orcel's expertise and...