Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Rotation is underway in the EM Financial sector, with selling in Brazil Financials funding rotation in to Greece, UAE and Argentinian financials.</li>
<li>Brazil Financials remain an overweight for the majority of EM funds, but conviction is falling, with selling in key names Banco Bradesco and Banco BTG Pactual.</li>
<li>Itau Unibanco Holding remains the flagship holding, owned by 43.7% of funds, though remains well below its 2010 ownership peak.</li>
</ul>


Rotation is underway in the EM Financial sector, with selling in Brazil Financials funding rotation in to Greece, UAE and Argentinian financials.
Brazil Financials remain an overweight for the majority of EM funds, but conviction is falling, with selling in key names Banco Bradesco and Banco BTG Pactual.
Itau Unibanco Holding remains the flagship holding, owned by 43.7% of funds, though remains well below its 2010 ownership peak.


Brazil Financials: Losing Ground Amid Global Financials Rotation

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.</li>
<li>We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.</li>
<li>We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC</li>
</ul>


The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.
We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.
We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC


Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.</li>
<li>New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond</li>
<li>Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)</li>
</ul>


Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.
New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond
Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We examine key balance sheet ratios of the Latam banks looking into liquidity, credit quality and capital adequacy, at a time of investor nervousness and concern</li>
<li>Based on our screening, our positive value picks are Bradesco and BanColombia, with Banco de Chile, BanBajio and BanRegio composing our positive high quality picks</li>
<li>Our bearish picks are Banorte and BCI; Banorte is strong in terms of capital adequacy and credit quality, but is exposed in terms of its big securities portfolio</li>
</ul>


We examine key balance sheet ratios of the Latam banks looking into liquidity, credit quality and capital adequacy, at a time of investor nervousness and concern
Based on our screening, our positive value picks are Bradesco and BanColombia, with Banco de Chile, BanBajio and BanRegio composing our positive high quality picks
Our bearish picks are Banorte and BCI; Banorte is strong in terms of capital adequacy and credit quality, but is exposed in terms of its big securities portfolio


LatAm Banks – Liquidity, Solvency and Credit Quality in Focus in a Crisis

<ul>
<li>Lula’s narrow win in the second round of the Brazilian Presential election has so far passed in relative calm, although sitting President Jair Bolsonaro has yet to concede defeat</li>
<li>Markets will be hoping for a peaceful transition, and influential Bolsonaro allies have asked Brazilians to respect the result, to avoid social unrest and any potential intervention by the military</li>
<li>It is unclear how anti-market Lula’s policies will be but we expect downside risk for Brazilian financials and fintechs; Banco do Brasil is in for volatility, Itausa may be defensive</li>
</ul>


Lula’s narrow win in the second round of the Brazilian Presential election has so far passed in relative calm, although sitting President Jair Bolsonaro has yet to concede defeat
Markets will be hoping for a peaceful transition, and influential Bolsonaro allies have asked Brazilians to respect the result, to avoid social unrest and any potential intervention by the military
It is unclear how anti-market Lula’s policies will be but we expect downside risk for Brazilian financials and fintechs; Banco do Brasil is in for volatility, Itausa may be defensive


Brazilian Presidential Election; What Could a Lula Victory Mean for Financials and Fintech?

Brazil

Banco Bradesco S.A. is a Brazilian financial services company that provides a wide range of banking products and services, including retail banking, investment banking, asset management, and specialized financial services. It also offers various insurance products such as life, health, and non-life insurance, along with pension plans. The company was founded in 1943 and is headquartered in Osasco, Brazil.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Banco Bradesco (BBDC4 BR)

Brazil Financials: Losing Ground Amid Global Financials Rotation

Rotation in EM financial sector sees selling in Brazil funding rotation into Greece, UAE, and Argentina financials, with Itau Unibanco Holding as...

Steven Holden

Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Market remains in a "lockout rally" where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings -- as we...

Vermilion Research

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

New market-generated information continues to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. We still expect...

Vermilion Research

LatAm Banks – Liquidity, Solvency and Credit Quality in Focus in a Crisis

Focus on LatAm banks liquidity, solvency and credit quality; we like Bradesco and BanColombia as value plays with Banco de Chile, BanBajio &...

Victor Galliano

Brazilian Presidential Election; What Could a Lula Victory Mean for Financials and Fintech?

Lula's victory is near term negative for Brazil risk assets; in fintech & financials, we see volatility risk for Banco do Brasil, we are negative...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Brazil Financials: Losing Ground Amid Global Financials Rotation

​Rotation in EM financial sector sees selling in Brazil funding rotation into Greece, UAE, and Argentina financials, with Itau Unibanco Holding as...

Steven Holden

Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

Market remains in a "lockout rally" where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings -- as we...

Vermilion Research

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

New market-generated information continues to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. We still expect...

Vermilion Research

LatAm Banks – Liquidity, Solvency and Credit Quality in Focus in a Crisis

Focus on LatAm banks liquidity, solvency and credit quality; we like Bradesco and BanColombia as value plays with Banco de Chile, BanBajio &...

Victor Galliano

Brazilian Presidential Election; What Could a Lula Victory Mean for Financials and Fintech?

Lula's victory is near term negative for Brazil risk assets; in fintech & financials, we see volatility risk for Banco do Brasil, we are negative...

Victor Galliano

Rotation in EM financial sector sees selling in Brazil funding rotation into Greece, UAE, and Argentina financials, with Itau Unibanco Holding as...