Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,642/1,650 points and the support at 1,621/1,612 points.</li><li>We recommend trading buy on KBANK, BDMS and TFG.</li><li>Technically, yesterday's rebound has created positive momentum, indicating that the index may move up to test the resistance at 1,650 points, with the stop-loss point at 1,612 points (20-day EMA).</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,642/1,650 points and the support at 1,621/1,612 points.We recommend trading buy on KBANK, BDMS and TFG.Technically, yesterday's rebound has created positive momentum, indicating that the index may move up to test the resistance at 1,650 points, with the stop-loss point at 1,612 points (20-day EMA).

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Banco Comercial Portugues SA / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>BCP: Value-Quality trends are benign</h2>Banco Comercial Português, S.A. is the largest private bank in Portugal, having acquired the previously largest entity, ("Atlântico"), back in 1995. BCP is also particularly active in Africa, in Mozambique and in Angola, and in Poland via Bank Millenium. The bank has an operation in Macau. With 2.4mm clients, Portugal accounts for 71% of total Group Assets and 69% of Loans, respectively. Market share of Loans and Deposits in Portugal stands at 17.5% and 18.1%, respectively. Overall, the Group has 5.7mm customers, of which 1.2mm relate to Africa. Market share of Loans and Deposits in Mozambique stands at 16.8% and 24.2%, respectively. Millennium bim in Mozambique is a highly capitalized deposit-rich franchise with a strong brand and a deep electronic banking penetration. Banco Millennium Angola, SA and Banco Privado Atlântico, SA merged in 2016. With its multichannel infrastructure covering 2.4mm clients, Bank Millenium in Poland commands a 6.1% share of the credit market and 5.1% of Deposits in Poland. Over the years, prodded by the government and ECB, the Group has exited varied non-core operations such as in Romania and in Greece and has disposed of insurance units in order to reinforce its capital base and fortify its Luso proposition. As part of the deep reorganization involving employee and branch rationalistion, Banco de Investimento Imobiliário S.A and Eurobank SA were integrated into BCP. Restructuring has resulted in a 40% drop in OPEX within Portugal since 2011 and a 70% decline in non-performing exposures since 2013 (from €13.7mm to €3.3mm euros in 2020). Group credit is balanced between low risk mortgages with an average LTV of 60% and corporates. The shareholders structure is centred on investors from Portugal (33.8% of total), from China (29.9%) and from Africa (19.6%).<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/208/889/original/image_76396793621621928173285.jpg?1621928173" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="208889"></figure>The PH Score™ of BCP is favorable given forceful amelioration in Profitability, in NIM/Spread, in Efficiency, in Liquidity, and in Asset Quality. There was though some softer Provisioning, and erosion in some Capital Ratios. In fact relative to closely matched counterparts by size*, BCP commands, a fairly robust NIM, a better than median CIR, better Liquidity, and superior Revenue diversification as measured by Non-Interest income/Operating Revenues.<div class="content-highlight">A FV of 4%, a PBV of 0.43x, and an Earnings Yield of 12.47% are not unattractive. The bank commands strong fundamental momentum -and a technical tailwind- and is a preferred financial entity in Europe.  Shares should be considered on any weakness given the high PH Score™.</div>*Alpha Services &amp; Holdings, Bper Banca, National Bank of Greece, Mediobanca, Jyske Bank, Banco Espiritu Santo, Turkiye Is Bankasi, Liberbank, Bankinter, PKO.

BCP: Value-Quality trends are benignBanco Comercial Português, S.A. is the largest private bank in Portugal, having acquired the previously largest entity, ("Atlântico"), back in 1995. BCP is also particularly active in Africa, in Mozambique and in Angola, and in Poland via Bank Millenium. The bank has an operation in Macau. With 2.4mm clients, Portugal accounts for 71% of total Group Assets and 69% of Loans, respectively. Market share of Loans and Deposits in Portugal stands at 17.5% and 18.1%, respectively. Overall, the Group has 5.7mm customers, of which 1.2mm relate to Africa. Market share of Loans and Deposits in Mozambique stands at 16.8% and 24.2%, respectively. Millennium bim in Mozambique is a highly capitalized deposit-rich franchise with a strong brand and a deep electronic banking penetration. Banco Millennium Angola, SA and Banco Privado Atlântico, SA merged in 2016. With its multichannel infrastructure covering 2.4mm clients, Bank Millenium in Poland commands a 6.1% share of the credit market and 5.1% of Deposits in Poland. Over the years, prodded by the government and ECB, the Group has exited varied non-core operations such as in Romania and in Greece and has disposed of insurance units in order to reinforce its capital base and fortify its Luso proposition. As part of the deep reorganization involving employee and branch rationalistion, Banco de Investimento Imobiliário S.A and Eurobank SA were integrated into BCP. Restructuring has resulted in a 40% drop in OPEX within Portugal since 2011 and a 70% decline in non-performing exposures since 2013 (from €13.7mm to €3.3mm euros in 2020). Group credit is balanced between low risk mortgages with an average LTV of 60% and corporates. The shareholders structure is centred on investors from Portugal (33.8% of total), from China (29.9%) and from Africa (19.6%).The PH Score™ of BCP is favorable given forceful amelioration in Profitability, in NIM/Spread, in Efficiency, in Liquidity, and in Asset Quality. There was though some softer Provisioning, and erosion in some Capital Ratios. In fact relative to closely matched counterparts by size*, BCP commands, a fairly robust NIM, a better than median CIR, better Liquidity, and superior Revenue diversification as measured by Non-Interest income/Operating Revenues.A FV of 4%, a PBV of 0.43x, and an Earnings Yield of 12.47% are not unattractive. The bank commands strong fundamental momentum -and a technical tailwind- and is a preferred financial entity in Europe.  Shares should be considered on any weakness given the high PH Score™.*Alpha Services &amp; Holdings, Bper Banca, National Bank of Greece, Mediobanca, Jyske Bank, Banco Espiritu Santo, Turkiye Is Bankasi, Liberbank, Bankinter, PKO.

<ul><li>CPW's 2020 results missed our expectation on a weak top line and GPM thanks to the adverse impact of the pandemic.</li><li>We revise down the 2021-2022E earnings to reflect the slow momentum of the economic recovery, despite the strong product lineup.</li><li>The current share price has limited upside to our new TP of Bt2.37, pegged with 2021E PER of 19x, leading us to downgrade our rating to Hold.</li></ul>

CPW's 2020 results missed our expectation on a weak top line and GPM thanks to the adverse impact of the pandemic.We revise down the 2021-2022E earnings to reflect the slow momentum of the economic recovery, despite the strong product lineup.The current share price has limited upside to our new TP of Bt2.37, pegged with 2021E PER of 19x, leading us to downgrade our rating to Hold.

<ul><li>INTUCH's 2020 earnings were in line with the expectations.</li><li>INTUCH reported a net profit of Bt11.0bn in 2020, in line with our forecast and the street.</li><li>INTUCH approved the payment of a DPS of Bt1.35 for the 2H2O operation, representing a yield of 2% for the period.</li></ul>

INTUCH's 2020 earnings were in line with the expectations.INTUCH reported a net profit of Bt11.0bn in 2020, in line with our forecast and the street.INTUCH approved the payment of a DPS of Bt1.35 for the 2H2O operation, representing a yield of 2% for the period.

<ul><li>PLANB's share price increased 21% in the previous three months thanks to the ad industry's improvement, which is likely to fuel a big earnings turnaround in 4Q20E.</li><li>We forecast a net profit of Bt117mn in 4Q20E for PLANB, falling by 48% YoY but rebounding strongly from the net profit of only Bt1mn in 3Q20, thanks to the improvement in revenue and the gross profit margin (GPM).</li><li>In 2021E, we expect PLANB to earn revenue of Bt450mn related to sponsorship and marketing management for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, in line with PLANB's guidance.</li></ul>

PLANB's share price increased 21% in the previous three months thanks to the ad industry's improvement, which is likely to fuel a big earnings turnaround in 4Q20E.We forecast a net profit of Bt117mn in 4Q20E for PLANB, falling by 48% YoY but rebounding strongly from the net profit of only Bt1mn in 3Q20, thanks to the improvement in revenue and the gross profit margin (GPM).In 2021E, we expect PLANB to earn revenue of Bt450mn related to sponsorship and marketing management for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, in line with PLANB's guidance.

Net Profit to Turn Around QoQ in 4Q20E - Hold

Portugal

Banco Comercial Portugues, S.A. (BCP) attracts deposits and offers commercial and investment banking services. The Bank offers consumer loans, factoring, lease financing, mortgages, insurance, securities brokerage, investment funds, and credit cards. BCP operates offices in Europe, the Americas, Africa, and China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Banco Comercial Portugues SA (BCP PL)

Market Outlook

The SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,642/1,650 points and the support at 1,621/1,612 points. We recommend...

Krungthai XSpring

BCP: Value-Quality Trends Are Benign

BCP reports strong fundamental momentum and benign financial trends while shares remain under valued despite recent outperformance.

Paul Hollingworth

2020 Earnings Below Forecast

CPW's 2020 results missed our expectation on a weak top line and GPM thanks to the adverse impact of the pandemic. We revise down the 2021-2022E...

Krungthai XSpring

Play On Yield

INTUCH's 2020 earnings were in line with the expectations. INTUCH reported a net profit of Bt11.0bn in 2020, in line with our forecast and the...

Krungthai XSpring

Net Profit to Turn Around QoQ in 4Q20E - Hold

PLANB's share price increased 21% in the previous three months thanks to the ad industry's improvement, which is likely to fuel a big earnings...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)