Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have GFPT as our top pick for 2021E as the share price implies 13% upside to our target price of Bt16.00/share (vs. 15x PER).</li><li>The 2021E core profit is likely to grow by 22% YoY after the new machinery in the cooked chicken plant is installed.</li><li>In addition, Thai broiler exports are expected to increase by 3%, with possible upside if the Tokyo Olympics can be held in 2021E.</li></ul>

We have GFPT as our top pick for 2021E as the share price implies 13% upside to our target price of Bt16.00/share (vs. 15x PER).The 2021E core profit is likely to grow by 22% YoY after the new machinery in the cooked chicken plant is installed.In addition, Thai broiler exports are expected to increase by 3%, with possible upside if the Tokyo Olympics can be held in 2021E.

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>In our Southern Europe bank screens, we look for attractive valuations, core capital strength and constructive signals on credit quality</li>
<li>In Italy, we are positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> , which is attractive on valuations, credit quality and capital as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bper-banca-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21165:1" rel="noopener">BPER Banca S.p.A (BPE IM)</a> on valuations and NPL coverage</li>
<li>In Spain, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)</a> screens well on valuation, NPL coverage and the capital ratio will get a boost post US Bancshares disposal; we are also positive on the Caixabank-Bankia merger</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-comercial-portugues-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21358:1" rel="noopener">Banco Comercial Portugues Sa (BCP PL)</a> is one to watch in Portugal, while we believe that the Greek banks still have a way to go on balance sheet de-risking</li>
<li>Risks to our positive views on the recommended Italian and Spanish banks include a reversal of investor sentiment into a more “risk off” mode, including investors shunning value shares</li>
</ul>


In our Southern Europe bank screens, we look for attractive valuations, core capital strength and constructive signals on credit quality
In Italy, we are positive on UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) , which is attractive on valuations, credit quality and capital as well as BPER Banca S.p.A (BPE IM) on valuations and NPL coverage
In Spain, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) screens well on valuation, NPL coverage and the capital ratio will get a boost post US Bancshares disposal; we are also positive on the Caixabank-Bankia merger

Banco Comercial Portugues Sa (BCP PL) is one to watch in Portugal, while we believe that the Greek banks still have a way to go on balance sheet de-risking
Risks to our positive views on the recommended Italian and Spanish banks include a reversal of investor sentiment into a more “risk off” mode, including investors shunning value shares


Southern Europe Bank Screens; Picks for 2021

<ul><li>We keep a Buy rating on AIT based on its very attractive dividend yield, estimated at 8% for the 2H2OE performance.</li><li>AIT revealed that its backlog stood at Bt6.68bn as of November 24.</li><li>AIT's management guided that revenue recognition in 4Q20E will be similar to the previous quarter owing to its healthy backlog.</li></ul>

We keep a Buy rating on AIT based on its very attractive dividend yield, estimated at 8% for the 2H2OE performance.AIT revealed that its backlog stood at Bt6.68bn as of November 24.AIT's management guided that revenue recognition in 4Q20E will be similar to the previous quarter owing to its healthy backlog.

<ul><li>AIT's 3Q20 NP bounced back as expected thanks to strong top-line growth on the delivery of projects after the easing of the lockdowns.</li><li>Its healthy backlog will sustain the 4Q20E earnings momentum, with further growth of 13% expected in 2021E.</li><li>As AIT also offers an attractive yield of 9% in 2H20E, we lift the rating to Buy.</li></ul>

AIT's 3Q20 NP bounced back as expected thanks to strong top-line growth on the delivery of projects after the easing of the lockdowns.Its healthy backlog will sustain the 4Q20E earnings momentum, with further growth of 13% expected in 2021E.As AIT also offers an attractive yield of 9% in 2H20E, we lift the rating to Buy.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul class="">
<li>The new CaixaBank has established the composition of its Board of directors, which will be the largest domestic bank in Spain.</li>
<li> The independent expert (BDO) has endorsed the exchange ratio,
<ul>
<li>
0.6845 new CaixaBank shares for each Bankia share.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The FROB believes that the operation will have a positive effect on the recovery of the aid.</li>
</ul>
I recommend keeping an eye on the spread.
<ul>
<li>It closed on 27 October at 1.66% (gross), not far from the maximum reached on 20 October of 1.73%, and in any case an interesting level for a deal that will certainly close (est. March 2021).
</li>
</ul>
Further catalysts post-merger are (increased) dividend payouts and the exit in the short to medium term of the Kingdom of Spain from the capital of the merged entity.
M&amp;A consolidation seems as a reasonable way to reduce costs and protect profits. These can be among domestic banks or, much to the liking of the ECB, between banks domiciled in different EU countries that share common markets, and would create European champions (see list of banks that appear in many rumours at the end of the note).


The new CaixaBank has established the composition of its Board of directors, which will be the largest domestic bank in Spain.
 The independent expert (BDO) has endorsed the exchange ratio,


0.6845 new CaixaBank shares for each Bankia share.


The FROB believes that the operation will have a positive effect on the recovery of the aid.

I recommend keeping an eye on the spread.

It closed on 27 October at 1.66% (gross), not far from the maximum reached on 20 October of 1.73%, and in any case an interesting level for a deal that will certainly close (est. March 2021).


Further catalysts post-merger are (increased) dividend payouts and the exit in the short to medium term of the Kingdom of Spain from the capital of the merged entity.
M&amp;A consolidation seems as a reasonable way to reduce costs and protect profits. These can be among domestic banks or, much to the liking of the ECB, between banks domiciled in different EU countries that share common markets, and would create European champions (see list of banks that appear in many rumours at the end of the note).

Bankia - CaixaBank: Merger in Progress, Spread Attractive

Portugal

Banco Comercial Portugues, S.A. (BCP) attracts deposits and offers commercial and investment banking services. The Bank offers consumer loans, factoring, lease financing, mortgages, insurance, securities brokerage, investment funds, and credit cards. BCP operates offices in Europe, the Americas, Africa, and China.

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Banco Comercial Portugues SA (BCP PL)

GFPT Plc. (GFPT) Agribusiness

We have GFPT as our top pick for 2021E as the share price implies 13% upside to our target price of Bt16.00/share (vs. 15x PER). The 2021E core...

Krungthai XSpring

Southern Europe Bank Screens; Picks for 2021

As 2021 Southern Europe bank picks, Unicredit, BPER and BBVA, Caixaban-Bankia stand out in terms of valuation, capital strength and credit quality

Victor Galliano

Attractive Yield Play

We keep a Buy rating on AIT based on its very attractive dividend yield, estimated at 8% for the 2H2OE performance. AIT revealed that its backlog...

Krungthai XSpring

Back on Track; Attractive Yield of 9%

AIT's 3Q20 NP bounced back as expected thanks to strong top-line growth on the delivery of projects after the easing of the lockdowns. Its healthy...

Krungthai XSpring

Bankia - CaixaBank: Merger in Progress, Spread Attractive

I recommend keeping an eye on the spread. It closed today (27 October) at a gross 1.66%, an interesting level for a deal that will certainly close...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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