Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itau-corpbanca" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27602:1">Itau CorpBanca (ITAUCORP CI)</a> is starting to deliver on its turnaround</li>
<li>The challenge, in both Chile and Colombia, is that Itaú Corpbanca is in the tricky middle</li>
<li>It is neither one of the big banks, nor a specialist lender, so it needs first class execution to deliver improved returns</li>
<li>Core capital is tight, especially once Colombian bank minorities are bought out, which also limits the dividend outlook</li>
<li>Capital IQ's consensus ROE forecasts for 2020 point to 10% plus; our more conservative estimates indicate a 2020 ROE of c8%</li>
<li>On a PBV ratio of under 1x, Itaú Corpbanca screens as good value but needs to produce much improved returns to avoid falling into the value trap</li>
</ul>



Itau CorpBanca (ITAUCORP CI) is starting to deliver on its turnaround
The challenge, in both Chile and Colombia, is that Itaú Corpbanca is in the tricky middle
It is neither one of the big banks, nor a specialist lender, so it needs first class execution to deliver improved returns
Core capital is tight, especially once Colombian bank minorities are bought out, which also limits the dividend outlook
Capital IQ's consensus ROE forecasts for 2020 point to 10% plus; our more conservative estimates indicate a 2020 ROE of c8%
On a PBV ratio of under 1x, Itaú Corpbanca screens as good value but needs to produce much improved returns to avoid falling into the value trap


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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21296" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21296:1">Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM)</a> has announced that it will make an all share, voluntary offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27672" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27672:1">Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM)</a> minorities</li>
<li>The offer values the c 25% free float in SanMex at €2.56bn, which implies, at current exchange rates, a premium of 14%</li>
<li>Santander management's rationale for the offer "reflects its confidence in Mexico and its Mexican subsidiary as well as their long term growth potential" and it increases"its capacity to generate capital organically"; this latter point is helpful, given Santander parent's tight core capital ratio</li>
<li>It is also opportunistic by Santander management, in our view; the maximum up-take of the offer implies 3.5% dilution at the parent, and SanMex is cheap on PBV compared to its quoted LatAm sister banks and versus its own history</li>
<li> We see the offer as, at best, fair, but certainly not generous. Still, this offer is positive for investor sentiment towards the Mexican banks and Santander Mexico share price in the very near term; it is also a small positive for Santander parent, in our view</li>
</ul>



Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM) has announced that it will make an all share, voluntary offer for Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM) minorities
The offer values the c 25% free float in SanMex at €2.56bn, which implies, at current exchange rates, a premium of 14%
Santander management's rationale for the offer "reflects its confidence in Mexico and its Mexican subsidiary as well as their long term growth potential" and it increases"its capacity to generate capital organically"; this latter point is helpful, given Santander parent's tight core capital ratio
It is also opportunistic by Santander management, in our view; the maximum up-take of the offer implies 3.5% dilution at the parent, and SanMex is cheap on PBV compared to its quoted LatAm sister banks and versus its own history
 We see the offer as, at best, fair, but certainly not generous. Still, this offer is positive for investor sentiment towards the Mexican banks and Santander Mexico share price in the very near term; it is also a small positive for Santander parent, in our view


Santander's All-Share Offer for SanMex; Scooping up Minorities for a Modest Premium

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional clients an opportunity to engage with the management of 49 public companies we think have structural competitive advantages, or economic moats, as well as two private companies worth watching. This report distills the highlights from company presentations. A roster of all companies that participated in the conference, including those that held one-on-one meetings with investors, can be found on Page 2 of the attached document.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/069/790/original/img%201.JPG?1542165661" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="69790"></figure>

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional clients an opportunity to engage with the management of 49 public companies we think have structural competitive advantages, or economic moats, as well as two private companies worth watching. This report distills the highlights from company presentations. A roster of all companies that participated in the conference, including those that held one-on-one meetings with investors, can be found on Page 2 of the attached document.

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Chile

Banco Santander Chile attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services in Chile. The Bank offers personal and corporate loans, credit cards, mutual funds, lease financing, securities brokerage services, and business consulting.

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Banco Santander Chile (BSAN CI)

Itaú Corpbanca - Stuck in the Middle

Itau CorpBanca (ITAUCORP CI) is starting to deliver on its turnaround The challenge, in both Chile and Colombia, is that Itaú Corpbanca is in the...

Victor Galliano

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional...

Morningstar, Inc.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Itaú Corpbanca - Stuck in the Middle

Itau CorpBanca (ITAUCORP CI) is starting to deliver on its turnaround The challenge, in both Chile and Colombia, is that Itaú Corpbanca is in the...

Victor Galliano

Santander's All-Share Offer for SanMex; Scooping up Minorities for a Modest Premium

Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM) has announced that it will make an all share, voluntary offer for Banco Santander Mexico-B (BSMXB MM) minorities The...

Boost Research

Morningstar Management Behind the Moat 2018: Conference Highlights

Morningstar and PitchBook hosted the 10th annual Management Behind the Moat Conference in Chicago on Nov. 7 and 8, offering our institutional...

Morningstar, Inc.