Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal</li>
<li>AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed</li>
<li>The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise</li>
</ul>


The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse includes the write-off of CHF15.8bn (USD17bn) of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds, despite there being residual equity value for CS shareholders in the deal
AT1s are the most junior, loss absorbing of bonds; precedent exists for the zeroing of AT1s in Spain’s Banco Popular 2017 failure, but importantly this also included shareholders being zeroed
The Credit Suisse AT1 write-off is by far the biggest so far and this unconventional treatment of shareholders versus junior bondholders should lead European banks’ cost of equity to rise


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer maturities</li><li>Based on that, we use the ValueCo ESG opinions to assess where banks stand with regards to such risks</li><li>Our analysis indeed reveals a relation between such opinions and the steepness in the curve, but that relationship is more clear when we purely focus on the environmental part of such opinion.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer maturitiesBased on that, we use the ValueCo ESG opinions to assess where banks stand with regards to such risksOur analysis indeed reveals a relation between such opinions and the steepness in the curve, but that relationship is more clear when we purely focus on the environmental part of such opinion.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ESG Opinions Are Affecting the Shape of Bank Spread Curves

<ul>
<li>Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.</li>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels</li>
</ul>


Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.
The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.
Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels


Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Spain

Banco Santander SA attracts deposits and offers retail, commercial and private banking, and asset management services. The Bank offers consumer credit, mortgage loans, lease financing, factoring, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance, commercial credit, investment banking services, structured finance, and advice on mergers and acquisitions.

Banco Santander Sa (SAN SM)

AT1 Bonds; Life After Credit Suisse

The CS AT1 write-off due to UBS's acquisition is an unconventional action on bondholders versus shareholders, implying a rising banks' cost of...

Victor Galliano

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

ESG Opinions Are Affecting the Shape of Bank Spread Curves

When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer...

ABN AMRO

Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 in re-emerging as leadership, and Financials $EUFN are leading the charge within Europe/UK. Banks, insurance, and financial...

Vermilion Research