Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Consensus. The Street reset its numbers after the March results and the May update, then stopped while July channel data weakened. We think a second reset is ahead.</li>
<li>Positioning. July's bounce is accompied by short covering. Southbound has been a seller since June and the company's buyback has been idle since April.</li>
<li>Guidance risk. Management has lowered the bar twice this year. We expect the results call to lower the growth tone again.</li>
</ul>


Consensus. The Street reset its numbers after the March results and the May update, then stopped while July channel data weakened. We think a second reset is ahead.
Positioning. July's bounce is accompied by short covering. Southbound has been a seller since June and the company's buyback has been idle since April.
Guidance risk. Management has lowered the bar twice this year. We expect the results call to lower the growth tone again.


SELL Pop Mart (9992 HK): Assessment of Short Pre 1H26 Results

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart provided 1Q26 business update, consistent with our earlier expectation, which adds no directional news.</li>
<li>Our key thesis from April note is still valid. Labubu normalization is now visible in primary data. Consensus remains too high. Margin risk has not yet arrived in reported numbers.</li>
<li>Southbound net bought USD 991m since the results week, net buyer in 5 of 7 weeks but stops buying in the last week.</li>
</ul>


Pop Mart provided 1Q26 business update, consistent with our earlier expectation, which adds no directional news.
Our key thesis from April note is still valid. Labubu normalization is now visible in primary data. Consensus remains too high. Margin risk has not yet arrived in reported numbers.
Southbound net bought USD 991m since the results week, net buyer in 5 of 7 weeks but stops buying in the last week.


SELL Pop Mart (9992 HK): Seasonal Trough, Not Structural Trough; August Is the Test

Japan

Bandai Namco Holdings Inc is a holding company established through merger of Bandai and Namco.  The Group manufactures toys, stuffed animals, character goods, video games, commercial- and home-use game equipment and software. Namco Bandai also operates video game arcades and theme parks.

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Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP)

SELL Pop Mart (9992 HK): Assessment of Short Pre 1H26 Results

Pop Mart will report 1H26 on 20 Aug. Consensus has been reset twice, after the March and May updates, and has not moved since, while channel data...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

SELL Pop Mart (9992 HK): Seasonal Trough, Not Structural Trough; August Is the Test

Pop Mart reports seasonally weak 1Q26 in line with expecation. Consensus 26E revenue growth of 24% (Refinitiv) remains above management's 20%...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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