Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The bank expects its 2 new for 1 old stock split to be done on 10 October</li>
<li>Total shares should move from 18.6tr to 37.3tr after the stock split</li>
<li>Compared with peers, BBNI has low market cap/assets, good ROA</li>
</ul>


The bank expects its 2 new for 1 old stock split to be done on 10 October
Total shares should move from 18.6tr to 37.3tr after the stock split
Compared with peers, BBNI has low market cap/assets, good ROA


BBNI - Stock Split to Double Shares on 10 October | NPLs Are in Sharp Decline, Especially Loss Loans

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a> in the LQ45 Index next week.</li>
<li>There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.</li>
</ul>



Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) will replace Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) in the LQ45 Index next week.
There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). 
There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.


​​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This is a major week for macro data with expectations of a Fed pause, driven by moderation in the inflation print, rising unemployment, and a surge in unemployment benefit claims</li><li>The FOMC's June Summary of Economic Projections will provide details on the macro trajectory, especially the prospect for rate cuts in 2024</li><li>More countries have a weakening PMI trend, with half of them in the contraction zone</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This is a major week for macro data with expectations of a Fed pause, driven by moderation in the inflation print, rising unemployment, and a surge in unemployment benefit claimsThe FOMC's June Summary of Economic Projections will provide details on the macro trajectory, especially the prospect for rate cuts in 2024More countries have a weakening PMI trend, with half of them in the contraction zoneContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - The Tipping Point

<ul><li>The US Debt Ceiling Bill has passed the Senate, allowing the Treasury to raise funds for TGA and pay debt interest</li><li>The market expects around US$1tn in new T-bill issuances, potentially reducing liquidity and increasing yield volatility</li><li>Domestically, weaker growth was signalled by the slowing of Money Supply (M2) growth to 5.5% y-o-y in April, the slowest in four years, partly due to a slowdown in loans growth and a decline in working capital credit</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US Debt Ceiling Bill has passed the Senate, allowing the Treasury to raise funds for TGA and pay debt interestThe market expects around US$1tn in new T-bill issuances, potentially reducing liquidity and increasing yield volatilityDomestically, weaker growth was signalled by the slowing of Money Supply (M2) growth to 5.5% y-o-y in April, the slowest in four years, partly due to a slowdown in loans growth and a decline in working capital creditContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Liquidity Headwind

<ul><li>While Bank Indonesia's recent meeting highlighted weaker growth signals, stronger expansion of fiscal spending in 2H and election-related funds will support growth</li><li>We expect BI's current policy rate stance to continue until Q3-2023, while the latest Fed Minutes Meeting indicates a potential pause</li><li>The debt ceiling negotiations will continue to be the primary focus and are expected to carry forward the positive tone established by both political parties last week</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While Bank Indonesia's recent meeting highlighted weaker growth signals, stronger expansion of fiscal spending in 2H and election-related funds will support growthWe expect BI's current policy rate stance to continue until Q3-2023, while the latest Fed Minutes Meeting indicates a potential pauseThe debt ceiling negotiations will continue to be the primary focus and are expected to carry forward the positive tone established by both political parties last weekContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Positive Market Momentum

Indonesia

PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. operates as a bank. The Bank offers checking accounts, credit and debit cards, loans, insurance, payment protection, phone banking, bill pay, fund transfer, and merchant services. Bank Syariah Indonesia serves customers in Indonesia.

Price Gauge
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Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ)

BBNI - Stock Split to Double Shares on 10 October | NPLs Are in Sharp Decline, Especially Loss Loans

2 new for 1 old stock split on 10 Oct can mean much more liquidity for shares. Mkt cap/assets looks relatively low also when considering ROA. NPLs...

Daniel Tabbush

LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

GGRM and MAPI replace TINS and JPFA in the LQ45. Passives need to buy between 1-3x ADV in the next 4 trading days. There will be pre-positioning on...

Brian Freitas

Macro and Flows Tracker - The Tipping Point

This is a major week for macro data with expectations of a Fed pause, driven by moderation in the inflation print, rising unemployment, and a surge...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Liquidity Headwind

Domestically, weaker growth was signalled by the slowing of Money Supply (M2) growth to 5.5% y-o-y in April, the slowest in four years, partly due...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Positive Market Momentum

While Bank Indonesia's recent meeting highlighted weaker growth signals, stronger expansion of fiscal spending in 2H and election-related funds...

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BBNI - Stock Split to Double Shares on 10 October | NPLs Are in Sharp Decline, Especially Loss Loans

2 new for 1 old stock split on 10 Oct can mean much more liquidity for shares. Mkt cap/assets looks relatively low also when considering ROA. NPLs...

Daniel Tabbush

​​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

GGRM and MAPI replace TINS and JPFA in the LQ45. Passives need to buy between 1-3x ADV in the next 4 trading days. There will be pre-positioning on...

Brian Freitas

Macro and Flows Tracker - The Tipping Point

This is a major week for macro data with expectations of a Fed pause, driven by moderation in the inflation print, rising unemployment, and a surge...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Liquidity Headwind

Domestically, weaker growth was signalled by the slowing of Money Supply (M2) growth to 5.5% y-o-y in April, the slowest in four years, partly due...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Positive Market Momentum

While Bank Indonesia's recent meeting highlighted weaker growth signals, stronger expansion of fiscal spending in 2H and election-related funds...

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days