Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.</li>
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 What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.</li>
<li>
 Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.</li>
</ul>



Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.

 What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.

 Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.


BBNI IJ: When Credit Growth Outruns Earning Power

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>Driven by lower earning asset yield amid lower interest rate environment, offsetting the lower CoF, we expect lower NIM for FY26F.</li><li>We forecast FY26 net profit growth of 2% yoy driven by higher loan growth and lower credit costs, offsetting the lower NIM.</li><li>We roll forward our valuation to FY26F with ROE of 19.8% and CoE of 6.8%, resulting in a lower TP of Rp10,800, i.e., maintain BUY rating.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Driven by lower earning asset yield amid lower interest rate environment, offsetting the lower CoF, we expect lower NIM for FY26F.We forecast FY26 net profit growth of 2% yoy driven by higher loan growth and lower credit costs, offsetting the lower NIM.We roll forward our valuation to FY26F with ROE of 19.8% and CoE of 6.8%, resulting in a lower TP of Rp10,800, i.e., maintain BUY rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ): Higher Volume and Better Asset Quality to Drive Earnings Growth

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>BRIDS Market Pulse In the spotlight JCI major correction and foreign outflow post MSCI comment JCI posted a -6.9% w-w correction alongside US$831mn of foreign outflows following MSCI’s latest statement on Indonesia.</li><li>Selling pressure was most visible in index-aspirant names (IMPC, BUMI, MORA), followed by several MSCI-heavy / large-liquid names (BREN, BRMS, BBCA, DSSA).</li><li>On the other hand, GOTO outperformed on domestic and foreign buying amid renewed merger speculation...</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse In the spotlight JCI major correction and foreign outflow post MSCI comment JCI posted a -6.9% w-w correction alongside US$831mn of foreign outflows following MSCI’s latest statement on Indonesia.Selling pressure was most visible in index-aspirant names (IMPC, BUMI, MORA), followed by several MSCI-heavy / large-liquid names (BREN, BRMS, BBCA, DSSA).On the other hand, GOTO outperformed on domestic and foreign buying amid renewed merger speculation...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – JCI vs. LQ45 Forward P/E Band

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Equity Strategy Repricing the Risk; Potential Tactical Reliefs to Emerge.</li><li>JCI’s risk premium has reset higher on fiscal pressure, policy noise, negative sovereign outlooks, and MSCI deletions/ down-weight.</li><li>We see three ST potential tactical reliefs: foreign flow exhaustion, easing seasonal Rupiah pressure and the oil/war narrative peak. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy Repricing the Risk; Potential Tactical Reliefs to Emerge.JCI’s risk premium has reset higher on fiscal pressure, policy noise, negative sovereign outlooks, and MSCI deletions/ down-weight.We see three ST potential tactical reliefs: foreign flow exhaustion, easing seasonal Rupiah pressure and the oil/war narrative peak. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Repricing the Risk; Potential Tactical Reliefs to Emerge

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

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<li>Indonesia's status as an emerging market is up for review due to various market anomalies, including a small free float, which rattled the market. </li>
<li>While active flows are quite sizeable, the real issue came from the passive flows, as there is no way to navigate around this. </li>
<li>Indonesia's prospect hinges on 1) the decision to increase free float to meet MSCI requirements and 2) whether the tycoons are willing to sell their stakes to raise free float. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia's status as an emerging market is up for review due to various market anomalies, including a small free float, which rattled the market. 
While active flows are quite sizeable, the real issue came from the passive flows, as there is no way to navigate around this. 
Indonesia's prospect hinges on 1) the decision to increase free float to meet MSCI requirements and 2) whether the tycoons are willing to sell their stakes to raise free float. 


Indonesia

Bank Central Asia Tbk is an Indonesian commercial bank that provides a comprehensive range of banking solutions, including individual, commercial, and corporate banking services. Its offerings encompass savings accounts, credit cards, investment products, various types of loans, and electronic banking services such as mobile and internet banking. The company was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

BBNI IJ: When Credit Growth Outruns Earning Power

BNI is Indonesia's cheapest major bank at 0.76x book. The market implies 9.9% perpetual ROE, below its 12.7%–12.9% 1H26 run-rate. We take a...

Defriansyah Has