Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024</li>
<li>The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. </li>
<li>Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.</li>
</ul>


Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024
The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. 
Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.


US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

<ul>
<li>The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole</li>
<li>Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically</li>
<li>Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR</li>
</ul>


The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole
Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically
Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR


US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TSMC's expansion in US poses a challenge to Trump's labor strategy, according to DIGITIMES analyst.</li><li>Tesla leads in AI technology for electric vehicles and robots, pushing the boundaries of innovation.</li><li>European telecoms shift focus to AI as 5G deployment faces delays, while Indian mobile market shows growth potential in 2025.</li></ul>

TSMC's expansion in US poses a challenge to Trump's labor strategy, according to DIGITIMES analyst.Tesla leads in AI technology for electric vehicles and robots, pushing the boundaries of innovation.European telecoms shift focus to AI as 5G deployment faces delays, while Indian mobile market shows growth potential in 2025.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (06-Mar-2025): TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor tactics -DIGITIMES

<ul>
<li>Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits</li>
<li>The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits</li>
<li>Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve</li>
</ul>


Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits
The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits
Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve


US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies’ Q4 revenue is expected to drop 22.5% YoY, with EPS down 14.8% YoY. For 2024, revenue and EPS are projected to fall 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies expects lower crude prices to weigh on earnings but anticipates gains from higher LNG output, stronger gas trading, and rising LNG prices, setting it apart from peers.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies expects a slight increase in Q4 oil and gas production, with its Integrated LNG segment benefiting from an output rise and higher realizations.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies’ Q4 revenue is expected to drop 22.5% YoY, with EPS down 14.8% YoY. For 2024, revenue and EPS are projected to fall 5.2% and 17.8%, respectively.
TotalEnergies expects lower crude prices to weigh on earnings but anticipates gains from higher LNG output, stronger gas trading, and rising LNG prices, setting it apart from peers.
TotalEnergies expects a slight increase in Q4 oil and gas production, with its Integrated LNG segment benefiting from an output rise and higher realizations.


[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

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Bank Of America (BAC US)

US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

US banks weekly HFD on loans is positive, with acceleration to highest rates of growth since at least early FY24. Large time deposits and loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (06-Mar-2025): TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor tactics -DIGITIMES

TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor strategy, Tesla advances AI in electric vehicles and robots, European telecoms focus on AI and discuss...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

US banks are seeing accelerating loan growth with lower loan loss reserves and less large time deposits, in HFD during Jan and Feb. The...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

US banks weekly HFD on loans is positive, with acceleration to highest rates of growth since at least early FY24. Large time deposits and loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (06-Mar-2025): TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor tactics -DIGITIMES

TSMC's US expansion challenges Trump's labor strategy, Tesla advances AI in electric vehicles and robots, European telecoms focus on AI and discuss...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

US banks are seeing accelerating loan growth with lower loan loss reserves and less large time deposits, in HFD during Jan and Feb. The...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] TotalEnergies Banks on LNG Growth to Offset Weak Oil Prices

​TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...

Mint Finance

TotalEnergies anticipates a drop in revenue and EPS for Q4 and 2024 due to lower crude prices, but expects gains from higher LNG output and...