Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The FOMC yesterday decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.25-5.50%, as anticipated.</li><li>Nevertheless, the post-meeting dot plot paints a picture of continued hawkishness, with the projection of a 25 bps increase in the fed funds rate to 5.6% for this year.</li><li>From our perspective, these signals come as a negative surprise for financial assets, carrying potential adverse effects such as heightened credit and foreign exchange risks.</li></ul>

The FOMC yesterday decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.25-5.50%, as anticipated.Nevertheless, the post-meeting dot plot paints a picture of continued hawkishness, with the projection of a 25 bps increase in the fed funds rate to 5.6% for this year.From our perspective, these signals come as a negative surprise for financial assets, carrying potential adverse effects such as heightened credit and foreign exchange risks.

Economic Update: Fed Signals Higher-for-Longer Rate

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We see downside risk to the SET, based on the current fundamental level being lower than the fair value and the expectation that there will be no liquidity driven (i.e., foreign fund inflows) from the government's economic stimulus policies due to the 2024E budget limitations.</li><li>Hence, the weighting of EM equity markets was reduced by 25 ppt to just 9% overweight (OW), which is the lowest since November 2022.</li><li>We suggest investing in global plays in terms of upstream stocks, i.e., PTTEP, TOP and BCP, in response to the global crude oil price uptrend, which is likely to continue in the remainder of the year.</li></ul>

We see downside risk to the SET, based on the current fundamental level being lower than the fair value and the expectation that there will be no liquidity driven (i.e., foreign fund inflows) from the government's economic stimulus policies due to the 2024E budget limitations.Hence, the weighting of EM equity markets was reduced by 25 ppt to just 9% overweight (OW), which is the lowest since November 2022.We suggest investing in global plays in terms of upstream stocks, i.e., PTTEP, TOP and BCP, in response to the global crude oil price uptrend, which is likely to continue in the remainder of the year.

Fund Flows to EM Equities Hit a Low Since China's Lockdowns

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Large US banks show -0.2% growth YoY in CRE loans at 30 August week, completely at odds with small US banks, showing 11.3% YoY growth, more than total loan growth</li>
<li>Large time deposit at large banks are now up 80.1% YoY, accelerating, with only 1.95% YoY loan growth, negative implications for net interest income delta</li>
<li>Small banks have 1.44% LLR/loans vs large banks at 1.85%; small banks have capital/loans at 15.2% vs 22.2% for large banks; despite small banks' higher CRE lending</li>
</ul>


Large US banks show -0.2% growth YoY in CRE loans at 30 August week, completely at odds with small US banks, showing 11.3% YoY growth, more than total loan growth
Large time deposit at large banks are now up 80.1% YoY, accelerating, with only 1.95% YoY loan growth, negative implications for net interest income delta
Small banks have 1.44% LLR/loans vs large banks at 1.85%; small banks have capital/loans at 15.2% vs 22.2% for large banks; despite small banks' higher CRE lending


US Banks - New HFD | Big Bnks CRE -0.2%, Big FD's +80% | Sm. Bnks CRE +11% | LLR, Capital: Divergent

<ul>
<li>High frequency data shows small banks continue to take more CRE loan market share to week 23 August, now at 66.11%, rising 0.06% WoW (double avg WoW rise this year)</li>
<li>Net-Charge off rates on CRE loans for the 100 largest US banks just doubled in the past week to 26bps, for other banks they are still low...for now</li>
<li>Weekly mortgage loan applications index fell 5.7% in most recent weeks' data to 25 August, a steep decline compared with an avg 0.3% WoW decline since 7 July </li>
</ul>


High frequency data shows small banks continue to take more CRE loan market share to week 23 August, now at 66.11%, rising 0.06% WoW (double avg WoW rise this year)
Net-Charge off rates on CRE loans for the 100 largest US banks just doubled in the past week to 26bps, for other banks they are still low...for now
Weekly mortgage loan applications index fell 5.7% in most recent weeks' data to 25 August, a steep decline compared with an avg 0.3% WoW decline since 7 July 


US Banks - Small Banks' CRE Loan Share Up Weekly, Now 66.1% | Mtg Loan App's Index -5.7% In the Week

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheet data for US large banks shows another USD3bn decline in total loans</li>
<li>Large time deposits rose USD16bn in the week, YoY growth is accelerating, now 77.2% YoY</li>
<li>Risk aversion clearest with CRE loans, where growth is 0.41% YoY in most recent week</li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheet data for US large banks shows another USD3bn decline in total loans
Large time deposits rose USD16bn in the week, YoY growth is accelerating, now 77.2% YoY
Risk aversion clearest with CRE loans, where growth is 0.41% YoY in most recent week


US Large Banks - Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

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Bank Of America (BAC US)

Economic Update: Fed Signals Higher-for-Longer Rate

The FOMC yesterday decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.25-5.50%, as anticipated. Nevertheless, the post-meeting dot plot paints a...

Krungthai XSpring

Fund Flows to EM Equities Hit a Low Since China's Lockdowns

We see downside risk to the SET, based on the current fundamental level being lower than the fair value and the expectation that there will be no...

Krungthai XSpring

US Banks - New HFD | Big Bnks CRE -0.2%, Big FD's +80% | Sm. Bnks CRE +11% | LLR, Capital: Divergent

New weekly balance sheets: large banks at -0.2% CRE loan growth, first time negative this year; small banks at 11% CRE loan growth. Large banks'...

Daniel Tabbush

US Large Banks - Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve

US large banks' new weekly balance sheet data shows USD3bn less loans, USD16bn more large time deposits, with CRE loan growth nearing negative...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Economic Update: Fed Signals Higher-for-Longer Rate

The FOMC yesterday decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.25-5.50%, as anticipated. Nevertheless, the post-meeting dot plot paints a...

Krungthai XSpring

Fund Flows to EM Equities Hit a Low Since China's Lockdowns

We see downside risk to the SET, based on the current fundamental level being lower than the fair value and the expectation that there will be no...

Krungthai XSpring

US Banks - New HFD | Big Bnks CRE -0.2%, Big FD's +80% | Sm. Bnks CRE +11% | LLR, Capital: Divergent

New weekly balance sheets: large banks at -0.2% CRE loan growth, first time negative this year; small banks at 11% CRE loan growth. Large banks'...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Small Banks' CRE Loan Share Up Weekly, Now 66.1% | Mtg Loan App's Index -5.7% In the Week

Weekly US data shows US small banks taking higher CRE loan market share every week this quarter, now at 66.1%, while the US Mortgage Loan...

Daniel Tabbush

US Large Banks - Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve

US large banks' new weekly balance sheet data shows USD3bn less loans, USD16bn more large time deposits, with CRE loan growth nearing negative...

Daniel Tabbush