Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In August, despite investors' more optimistic stance on equities as highlighted in the recent Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, we view that the bullish sentiment was already substantially factored into share prices in July.</li><li>However, the investment landscape has been clouded by a confluence of negative factors, chiefly the surge in the US 10Y bond yield toward the previous peak of 4.33%.</li><li>The elevated US bond yields are having a detrimental effect on global equity markets in August, particularly Asian markets, which have recently been roiled by concerns over a potential credit default by a big Chinese property firm.</li></ul>

In August, despite investors' more optimistic stance on equities as highlighted in the recent Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, we view that the bullish sentiment was already substantially factored into share prices in July.However, the investment landscape has been clouded by a confluence of negative factors, chiefly the surge in the US 10Y bond yield toward the previous peak of 4.33%.The elevated US bond yields are having a detrimental effect on global equity markets in August, particularly Asian markets, which have recently been roiled by concerns over a potential credit default by a big Chinese property firm.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week</li>
<li>This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks</li>
</ul>


High frequency data shows large US banks reporting loan growth at 2.5% YoY at 19 July week
This is far lower than where it was earlier this year at 8.2% YoY at 18 January week
Loan loss reserves for large banks are up ~18.3% YoY in each of the past 3 weeks


US Banks - Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

<ul><li>We anticipate that risky assets will show gains in July, particularly in DMs.</li><li>The survey revealed that most fund managers have maintained their bearish sentiment, expecting a global economic slowdown in 4Q23E.</li><li>Amid this cautious outlook, investment portfolios have raised cash levels to 5.3% (from 5.1%).</li></ul>

We anticipate that risky assets will show gains in July, particularly in DMs.The survey revealed that most fund managers have maintained their bearish sentiment, expecting a global economic slowdown in 4Q23E.Amid this cautious outlook, investment portfolios have raised cash levels to 5.3% (from 5.1%).

Still Cautious Despite Rising Bets on a Soft Landing for the Economy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to gain, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA) /1,550 points and the support at 1,527/1,513 points (25-day/10-day EMA).</li><li>There are two key issues today. First, the highlight will be the second vote on the prime minister.</li><li>In addition to political issues, banks' earnings will be another key concern.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to gain, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA) /1,550 points and the support at 1,527/1,513 points (25-day/10-day EMA).There are two key issues today. First, the highlight will be the second vote on the prime minister.In addition to political issues, banks' earnings will be another key concern.

<ul>
<li>High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released</li>
<li>Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics </li>
<li>US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital</li>
</ul>


High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released
Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics 
US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

United States

Bank of America Corporation accepts deposits and offers banking, investing, asset management, and other financial and risk-management products and services.  The Company has a mortgage lending subsidiary, and an investment banking and securities brokerage subsidiary.

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Bank Of America (BAC US)

Effect of High US Bond Yields

In August, despite investors' more optimistic stance on equities as highlighted in the recent Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, we view...

Krungthai XSpring

US Banks - Loan Growth Moving Lower With Rising Provisions, Not Great Combination

Large US banks show far lower loan growth in new weekly data to 19 July with high growth in loan loss reserves. Still relatively high growth in CRE...

Daniel Tabbush

Still Cautious Despite Rising Bets on a Soft Landing for the Economy

We anticipate that risky assets will show gains in July, particularly in DMs. The survey revealed that most fund managers have maintained their...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to gain, with the resistance at 1,540 points (75-day EMA) /1,550 points and the support at 1,527/1,513...

Krungthai XSpring

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

Weekly balance sheet data for US banks is released every Saturday and the data through 14 June suggests major worsening in credit metrics at large...

Daniel Tabbush

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