Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently 13 pair trade opportunities persist across six markets and eight sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 13 pair trade opportunities persist across six markets and eight sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Jul 2026)

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Despite reporting a 36% yoy fall in 3QFY2021 net profits and being <a href="https://www.bloombergquint.com/quarterly-earnings/axis-bank-q3-results-net-profit-falls-36-on-higher-provisions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">below</a> consensus estimates, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> 's share price on January 28, 2021 closed 6% up, while the Nifty-50 declined by 1%. The strong and positive response to the bank’s results was surprising, as Axis Bank declined to voluntarily disclose its 30+ days past due loans, a critical indicator which the bank had disclosed in its 2QFY2021 results conference <a href="https://www.axisbank.com/docs/default-source/call-transcript/q2fy21-earnings-call-transcript.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">call</a>. The 30+ days past due loans serves as a benchmark to analysts to estimate future non-performing loans and incremental credit costs, especially at a time when past trends for credit costs may not hold on account of the unprecedented Covid-19 related lockdown, which severely curtailed economic activity. Even though 30+ day past loans is not a mandatory disclosure, once the senior management of a bank takes a decision to voluntarily disclose the indicator in a certain quarter, thereafter, from a transparency perspective, the bank would be well advised to continue to disclose the number. By failing to voluntarily disclose the 30+ day past due loans in the 3QFY2021, there would be a valid apprehension that the lack of disclosure is because of a sharp deterioration in the indicator, which the bank was uncomfortable in revealing to the market.It is commendable that banks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-baroda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:545:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)</a> (BOB), which reported 3QFY2021 results on January 27, voluntarily disclosed the 30+ days past due loans in their analyst presentation, despite the number revealing a significant deterioration in asset quality as compared with 2QFY2021. The equity market severely punished their share prices on January 28, with Yes Bank falling by 4% and BOB by 10% on January 28.Participants in the capital market such as shareholders, business media and analysts need to publicly call out companies (in this case banks) which cease to voluntarily disclose critical data points that were earlier disclosed, as its sudden absence in all likelihood indicates a negative development which the company does not want to share with stakeholders.

Despite reporting a 36% yoy fall in 3QFY2021 net profits and being below consensus estimates, Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) 's share price on January 28, 2021 closed 6% up, while the Nifty-50 declined by 1%. The strong and positive response to the bank’s results was surprising, as Axis Bank declined to voluntarily disclose its 30+ days past due loans, a critical indicator which the bank had disclosed in its 2QFY2021 results conference call. The 30+ days past due loans serves as a benchmark to analysts to estimate future non-performing loans and incremental credit costs, especially at a time when past trends for credit costs may not hold on account of the unprecedented Covid-19 related lockdown, which severely curtailed economic activity. Even though 30+ day past loans is not a mandatory disclosure, once the senior management of a bank takes a decision to voluntarily disclose the indicator in a certain quarter, thereafter, from a transparency perspective, the bank would be well advised to continue to disclose the number. By failing to voluntarily disclose the 30+ day past due loans in the 3QFY2021, there would be a valid apprehension that the lack of disclosure is because of a sharp deterioration in the indicator, which the bank was uncomfortable in revealing to the market.It is commendable that banks like Yes Bank (YES IN) and Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN) (BOB), which reported 3QFY2021 results on January 27, voluntarily disclosed the 30+ days past due loans in their analyst presentation, despite the number revealing a significant deterioration in asset quality as compared with 2QFY2021. The equity market severely punished their share prices on January 28, with Yes Bank falling by 4% and BOB by 10% on January 28.Participants in the capital market such as shareholders, business media and analysts need to publicly call out companies (in this case banks) which cease to voluntarily disclose critical data points that were earlier disclosed, as its sudden absence in all likelihood indicates a negative development which the company does not want to share with stakeholders. 

Axis Bank Stops Sharing 30+ Days Past Due Data: When Sudden Silence Tells a Tale

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently 17 pair trade opportunities persist across six markets and nine sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 17 pair trade opportunities persist across six markets and nine sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (29 June 2026)

India Financials

Saumya Agarwal

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Capital is King, more so in times of crisis and uncertainty. With the pandemic showing no signs of abating, Banks have been conserving capital to withstand any potential adverse impact. Higher the ‘Excess capital’ (i.e. capital over and above the regulatory threshold), greater will be the capital cushion available to Banks to absorb any potential losses.Our analysis suggests Top Indian Banks hold more than Rs 8Trillion of “Excess capital”. However,  Banks will have to set aside around Rs 500 Billion for the last tranche of Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB), which kicks-in from September 30, 2020.

Capital is King, more so in times of crisis and uncertainty. With the pandemic showing no signs of abating, Banks have been conserving capital to withstand any potential adverse impact. Higher the ‘Excess capital’ (i.e. capital over and above the regulatory threshold), greater will be the capital cushion available to Banks to absorb any potential losses.Our analysis suggests Top Indian Banks hold more than Rs 8Trillion of “Excess capital”. However,  Banks will have to set aside around Rs 500 Billion for the last tranche of Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB), which kicks-in from September 30, 2020.

Capital Is King: Top Indian Banks Hold ~Rs 8 Trillion of Excess Capital

The coronavirus contagion has intensified the divergence in the credit and deposit growth of Indian Banks. Should this trend persist, it will amplify another key concern for Banks – the Asset-Liability mismatch. Most Indian banks have a negative asset-liability mismatch in the short term i.e. in the less than one year time horizon.  With retail inflation breaching the RBI's prescribed limit, upside risks to inflation and bond yields remain a worry.  Should interest rates start rising,  Indian banks with a negative asset-liability gap will be the most susceptible. However, there are a few outliers too.

The coronavirus contagion has intensified the divergence in the credit and deposit growth of Indian Banks. Should this trend persist, it will amplify another key concern for Banks – the Asset-Liability mismatch. Most Indian banks have a negative asset-liability mismatch in the short term i.e. in the less than one year time horizon.  With retail inflation breaching the RBI's prescribed limit, upside risks to inflation and bond yields remain a worry.  Should interest rates start rising,  Indian banks with a negative asset-liability gap will be the most susceptible. However, there are a few outliers too.

Indian Banks: Be Mindful of the Negative Asset-Liability Gap in the Short-Term

India

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

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Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Jul 2026)

Discover 13 pair trade opportunities across six markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (29 June 2026)

Discover 17 pair trade opportunities across six markets and nine sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Capital Is King: Top Indian Banks Hold ~Rs 8 Trillion of Excess Capital

Capital is King, more so in times of crisis and uncertainty. With the pandemic showing no signs of abating, Banks have been conserving capital to...

Saumya Agarwal

Indian Banks: Be Mindful of the Negative Asset-Liability Gap in the Short-Term

The coronavirus contagion has put forth multiple challenges for the Indian Banking sector. One of them is the marked divergence in the credit and...

Saumya Agarwal

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (6 Jul 2026)

​Discover 13 pair trade opportunities across six markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Axis Bank Stops Sharing 30+ Days Past Due Data: When Sudden Silence Tells a Tale

When a bank, after earlier disclosing an indicator, fails to disclose it in future, it alerts stakeholders to the fact that it may be hiding a...

Hemindra Hazari

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (29 June 2026)

​Discover 17 pair trade opportunities across six markets and nine sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Capital Is King: Top Indian Banks Hold ~Rs 8 Trillion of Excess Capital

Capital is King, more so in times of crisis and uncertainty. With the pandemic showing no signs of abating, Banks have been conserving capital to...

Saumya Agarwal

Indian Banks: Be Mindful of the Negative Asset-Liability Gap in the Short-Term

The coronavirus contagion has put forth multiple challenges for the Indian Banking sector. One of them is the marked divergence in the credit and...

Saumya Agarwal

Discover 13 pair trade opportunities across six markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Discover 17 pair trade opportunities across six markets and nine sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.