Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our positive focus remains on smaller cap Indian banks, with buys on value plays Bandhan, Baroda and UBI; we are negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra</li>
<li>UBI shares have been poor performers, but its returns to 1QFYE25 have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains a favourite and Bandhan has delivered better profitability </li>
<li>Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns are declining; ICICI also has attractive returns but we believe its credit costs are unsustainably low</li>
</ul>


Our positive focus remains on smaller cap Indian banks, with buys on value plays Bandhan, Baroda and UBI; we are negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
UBI shares have been poor performers, but its returns to 1QFYE25 have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains a favourite and Bandhan has delivered better profitability 
Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns are declining; ICICI also has attractive returns but we believe its credit costs are unsustainably low


Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Advances growth was modest at 9% YoY and de-grew by 2% QoQ. Retail advances growth was healthy at 21/4% YoY/QoQ (25% Mix vs 23% YoY).</li><li>Agri and SME book growth was flat QoQ, while corporate book de-grew by 6% QoQ. Deposit growth was disappointing at 9% YoY and de-growth of 2% QoQ.</li><li>CASA Ratio stood at 40.6% vs 40.3/41.3% YoY/QoQ. C-D Ratio stood steady at 82% vs 82.2% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Advances growth was modest at 9% YoY and de-grew by 2% QoQ. Retail advances growth was healthy at 21/4% YoY/QoQ (25% Mix vs 23% YoY).Agri and SME book growth was flat QoQ, while corporate book de-grew by 6% QoQ. Deposit growth was disappointing at 9% YoY and de-growth of 2% QoQ.CASA Ratio stood at 40.6% vs 40.3/41.3% YoY/QoQ. C-D Ratio stood steady at 82% vs 82.2% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank of Baroda - Muted Quarter; Confident of Delivering on FY25 Guidance!

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.</li>
<li>Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. </li>
<li>We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.
Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. 
We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 


India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

<ul><li>The margin is expected to remain stable at 3.15% for FY25. Advances growth is anticipated to remain robust, aiding healthy growth in Net Interest Income (NII).</li><li>Operating expenses are expected to remain elevated, mainly driven by provisions for wage revision.</li><li>The restructured book is expected to reduce, aiding improvement in asset quality. Credit cost is expected to remain below 1%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The margin is expected to remain stable at 3.15% for FY25. Advances growth is anticipated to remain robust, aiding healthy growth in Net Interest Income (NII).Operating expenses are expected to remain elevated, mainly driven by provisions for wage revision.The restructured book is expected to reduce, aiding improvement in asset quality. Credit cost is expected to remain below 1%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank of Baroda - Sequential Margin Improvement with Stable Asset Quality!

<ul>
<li>We retain Bank of Baroda as the value Indian bank, despite its strong share performance, for its modest valuations, healthy ROE and further improvements in delinquency metrics</li>
<li>HDFC Bank remains out of favour with the market but we retain it as a buy, with its potential for medium term gains post-merger and its strong balance sheet</li>
<li>Axis bank remains on our watchlist; we remain negative on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio and limited progress on returns</li>
</ul>


We retain Bank of Baroda as the value Indian bank, despite its strong share performance, for its modest valuations, healthy ROE and further improvements in delinquency metrics
HDFC Bank remains out of favour with the market but we retain it as a buy, with its potential for medium term gains post-merger and its strong balance sheet
Axis bank remains on our watchlist; we remain negative on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio and limited progress on returns


Indian Banks Screener: Bank of Baroda Remains the Value Pick, HDFC Bank Is the Quality Name

India

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

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Bank Of Baroda (BOB IN)

Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

Positive focus on smaller cap, value based Indian banks Bandhan, Baroda, and UBI; negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra due to...

Victor Galliano

Bank of Baroda - Muted Quarter; Confident of Delivering on FY25 Guidance!

Advances growth was modest at 9% YoY and de-grew by 2% QoQ. Retail advances growth was healthy at 21/4% YoY/QoQ (25% Mix vs 23% YoY).

Axis Direct

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Bank of Baroda - Sequential Margin Improvement with Stable Asset Quality!

The margin is expected to remain stable at 3.15% for FY25. Advances growth is anticipated to remain robust, aiding healthy growth in Net Interest...

Axis Direct

Indian Banks Screener: Bank of Baroda Remains the Value Pick, HDFC Bank Is the Quality Name

Bank of Baroda is our top pick with modest valuations, healthy ROE, improving returns; HDFC Bank is a buy too having potential for medium term...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

​Positive focus on smaller cap, value based Indian banks Bandhan, Baroda, and UBI; negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra due to...

Victor Galliano

Bank of Baroda - Muted Quarter; Confident of Delivering on FY25 Guidance!

Advances growth was modest at 9% YoY and de-grew by 2% QoQ. Retail advances growth was healthy at 21/4% YoY/QoQ (25% Mix vs 23% YoY).

Axis Direct

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

​With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Bank of Baroda - Sequential Margin Improvement with Stable Asset Quality!

The margin is expected to remain stable at 3.15% for FY25. Advances growth is anticipated to remain robust, aiding healthy growth in Net Interest...

Axis Direct

Indian Banks Screener: Bank of Baroda Remains the Value Pick, HDFC Bank Is the Quality Name

​Bank of Baroda is our top pick with modest valuations, healthy ROE, improving returns; HDFC Bank is a buy too having potential for medium term...

Victor Galliano

Positive focus on smaller cap, value based Indian banks Bandhan, Baroda, and UBI; negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra due to...

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Bank of Baroda is our top pick with modest valuations, healthy ROE, improving returns; HDFC Bank is a buy too having potential for medium term...