Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Unseasoned loans are especially high for 2 banks and very low for 2 others, divergent risks</li>
<li>Worsening China economy, geopolitical concerns, beware of well-held China banks</li>
<li>Rising losses at China's corporate suggests worse asset quality than reported</li>
</ul>


Unseasoned loans are especially high for 2 banks and very low for 2 others, divergent risks
Worsening China economy, geopolitical concerns, beware of well-held China banks
Rising losses at China's corporate suggests worse asset quality than reported


China Banks - Unseasoned Loans, Institutional Ownership, Corporate Losses

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 4Q2025 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the inflows in 4Q2025 were US$1,590 million and holdings were US$368 billion.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, CATL, Moutai, Moutai, Luxshare Precision, Luxshare Precision, WEICHAI POWER, WEICHAI POWER, WUXI APPTEC, WUXI APPTEC, BYD, CMB, Mindray, EAST MONEY INFORMATION.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 4Q2025 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the inflows in 4Q2025 were US$1,590 million and holdings were US$368 billion.
We highlight flows for CATL, CATL, Moutai, Moutai, Luxshare Precision, Luxshare Precision, WEICHAI POWER, WEICHAI POWER, WUXI APPTEC, WUXI APPTEC, BYD, CMB, Mindray, EAST MONEY INFORMATION.


Northbound Flows (4Q2025): CATL, CATL, Moutai, Moutai, Luxshare Precision, Luxshare Precision

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Xinhua Winshare Publishing & Media / Equity Bottom-Up

Xinhua Winshare Publishing & Media (811 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinhua-winshare-publishing-media-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15072:1" rel="noopener">Xinhua Winshare (811 HK)</a>'s 4.4% YoY decline in recurring profit in 1H24 is due to a 6.6x increase in taxation. Its pre-tax profit has still increased 5.8%.  </li>
<li>We expect XW to maintain its textbook franchise and overall gross margin to stay stable. Growth in general book publication and distribution will supplement the textbook business.</li>
<li>Net cash equals 70% of the share price, while its listed equity investments had appreciated 3.6x. It stands on a 5% dividend yield but this is a potential upside.</li>
</ul>



Xinhua Winshare (811 HK)'s 4.4% YoY decline in recurring profit in 1H24 is due to a 6.6x increase in taxation. Its pre-tax profit has still increased 5.8%.  
We expect XW to maintain its textbook franchise and overall gross margin to stay stable. Growth in general book publication and distribution will supplement the textbook business.
Net cash equals 70% of the share price, while its listed equity investments had appreciated 3.6x. It stands on a 5% dividend yield but this is a potential upside.


Xinhua Winshare (811 HK): Unmatched Strengths

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15072" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15072:1">Xinhua Winshare Publishing&amp;Media (811 HK)</a> provides a state of calm amid the current market volatility through its stable earnings stream from book publishing and distribution.  Supported by such earnings, the company has been paying annual DPS of Rmb0.30 consecutively for nine years since 2010. At 6.2% prospective dividend yield, XW's share is currently attractively priced, in our view. Its publishing and distribution businesses are domestically focused, not affected by the US-China trade war and do not expose to the slowdown in China's economy. While such businesses are not expected to generate significant capital gain in the near term, upside may come in the long term from positive demographic trend and the company's strategic initiatives. </p>

Xinhua Winshare Publishing&amp;Media (811 HK) provides a state of calm amid the current market volatility through its stable earnings stream from book publishing and distribution.  Supported by such earnings, the company has been paying annual DPS of Rmb0.30 consecutively for nine years since 2010. At 6.2% prospective dividend yield, XW's share is currently attractively priced, in our view. Its publishing and distribution businesses are domestically focused, not affected by the US-China trade war and do not expose to the slowdown in China's economy. While such businesses are not expected to generate significant capital gain in the near term, upside may come in the long term from positive demographic trend and the company's strategic initiatives. 

Xinhua Winshare (811 HK): Secured 6.2% Yield Rock Solid in the Waves

China

Bank of Chengdu Co., Ltd. provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, loans, currency trading, foreign exchange, and other services. Bank of Chengdu provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Bank of Chengdu (601838 CH)

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

China Banks - Unseasoned Loans, Institutional Ownership, Corporate Losses

China concerns rising, we look at banks' unseasoned loans, institutional ownership, and losses of loss making companies in China - soaring.

Daniel Tabbush

Northbound Flows (4Q2025): CATL, CATL, Moutai, Moutai, Luxshare Precision, Luxshare Precision

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 4Q2025 and highlight flows for CATL, CATL, Moutai, Moutai, Luxshare Precision, Luxshare Precision, WEICHAI...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Xinhua Winshare (811 HK): Unmatched Strengths

Xinhua Winshare's 1H24 profit decline is due to increased taxation, but pre-tax profit still rose. Expect a stable textbook franchise and an...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Xinhua Winshare (811 HK): Secured 6.2% Yield Rock Solid in the Waves

Xinhua Winshare Publishing&Media (811 HK) provides a state of calm amid the current market volatility through its stable earnings stream from...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

China Banks - Unseasoned Loans, Institutional Ownership, Corporate Losses

China concerns rising, we look at banks' unseasoned loans, institutional ownership, and losses of loss making companies in China - soaring.

Daniel Tabbush

Northbound Flows (4Q2025): CATL, CATL, Moutai, Moutai, Luxshare Precision, Luxshare Precision

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 4Q2025 and highlight flows for CATL, CATL, Moutai, Moutai, Luxshare Precision, Luxshare Precision, WEICHAI...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Xinhua Winshare (811 HK): Unmatched Strengths

​Xinhua Winshare's 1H24 profit decline is due to increased taxation, but pre-tax profit still rose. Expect a stable textbook franchise and an...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Xinhua Winshare (811 HK): Secured 6.2% Yield Rock Solid in the Waves

Xinhua Winshare Publishing&Media (811 HK) provides a state of calm amid the current market volatility through its stable earnings stream from...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Xinhua Winshare's 1H24 profit decline is due to increased taxation, but pre-tax profit still rose. Expect a stable textbook franchise and an...