Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.</li>
<li>This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.</li>
</ul>


A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. 
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.
This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> is among the stocks that will be subject to significant passive selling flows at the end of May, according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas.</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a>'s pullback last week is trivially small relative to the expected selling pressure. Our model's down-path analogues suggest the real move hasn't started yet.</li>
<li>Our model's path analogues point to a probable landing zone of HK$4.97–4.88 over the next 3 weeks, with tail risk toward HK$4.6 if forced selling clusters around the rebalance date.</li>
</ul>



Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) is among the stocks that will be subject to significant passive selling flows at the end of May, according to Brian Freitas.


Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)'s pullback last week is trivially small relative to the expected selling pressure. Our model's down-path analogues suggest the real move hasn't started yet.
Our model's path analogues point to a probable landing zone of HK$4.97–4.88 over the next 3 weeks, with tail risk toward HK$4.6 if forced selling clusters around the rebalance date.


Bank Of China (3988 HK) Tactical Outlook: Passive Selling Still Early Ahead of May Rebalance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Technical Analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI (since our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass).</li>
<li>With that said, the market is going through a short-term consolidation; the first clue was that a bullish gap finally got filled at $156-$157.20 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>We've maintained that pullbacks to the 50-day MA on ACWI-US would be infrequent (~once every 1-2 months), but that they'd be buying opportunities, and that's what we believe is happening.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI (since our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass).
With that said, the market is going through a short-term consolidation; the first clue was that a bullish gap finally got filled at $156-$157.20 on ACWI-US.
We've maintained that pullbacks to the 50-day MA on ACWI-US would be infrequent (~once every 1-2 months), but that they'd be buying opportunities, and that's what we believe is happening.


Looking Outside of Technology/A.I. Themes; Korea and Taiwan Likely to Consolidate?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Cover Story: China Restarts Stalled Property Megaproject in State-Led Takeover</li><li>China Widens Probe Into $6.8 Billion Bad-Loan Case Tied to Tianjin Skyscraper Project</li><li>Founder of Bankrupt Luxury Auto Dealer Baolide Detained in Fraud Probe</li></ul>

Cover Story: China Restarts Stalled Property Megaproject in State-Led TakeoverChina Widens Probe Into $6.8 Billion Bad-Loan Case Tied to Tianjin Skyscraper ProjectFounder of Bankrupt Luxury Auto Dealer Baolide Detained in Fraud Probe

CX Daily: China Restarts Stalled Property Megaproject in State-Led Takeover 

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec, Wanguo Gold Gp.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec, Wanguo Gold Gp.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec

China

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
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Bank of China (601988 CH)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Strong SOUTHBOUND Connect flows continue. Only one net sell day since the end of Chinese New Year. H-shares were flat to up while A-shares were...

Travis Lundy

Bank Of China (3988 HK) Tactical Outlook: Passive Selling Still Early Ahead of May Rebalance

Bank Of China (3988 HK) faces forced passive selling due to a global index provider rebalance in May. Our model shows the real move hasn't started...

Nico Rosti

Looking Outside of Technology/A.I. Themes; Korea and Taiwan Likely to Consolidate?

Looking Outside of Technology/A.I. Themes; Korea and Taiwan Likely to Consolidate? Normal Pullback to 50-day MA on $ACWI. Bullish Outlook Intact

Vermilion Research

CX Daily: China Restarts Stalled Property Megaproject in State-Led Takeover

Cover Story: China Restarts Stalled Property Megaproject in State-Led Takeover China Widens Probe Into $6.8 Billion Bad-Loan Case Tied to Tianjin...

Caixin Global

HK Short Interest Weekly: Zijin Gold Intl, Alibaba, CCB, Trip.Com, Meituan, BOC, Wuxi Apptec

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 25th and highlight short interest changes in Zijin Gold Intl (2259 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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