Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 18th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology, CICC, Citic Securities.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 18th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx, Kuaishou Technology, CICC, Citic Securities.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 18th): Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-hsi-september-rally-what-s-next?slug=eqd-hsi-september-rally-what-s-next" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> about the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>'s we theorized a probable continuation of the rally in October, after some resistance, but the index just shoot up straight.</li>
<li>Resistance appeared last week, from an area considered a tail by our SHORT model, so it was not possible to make a forecast from there. </li>
<li>The question now is: can the index re-start to rally from here? Or will it pull back more this coming week?</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight about the Hang Seng Index's we theorized a probable continuation of the rally in October, after some resistance, but the index just shoot up straight.
Resistance appeared last week, from an area considered a tail by our SHORT model, so it was not possible to make a forecast from there. 
The question now is: can the index re-start to rally from here? Or will it pull back more this coming week?


EQD | The HSI Rally: Go LONG Now or Wait?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the HSI surging 21.2% since 24 Sep and many stocks have even doubled, the strategy in the HK and China markets will move to chase the laggards.</li>
<li>Among the underperforming HSI constituents, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> are the better candidates to pick up performance. </li>
<li>For HSCEI, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a> have lagged but their stories are interesting and should regain momentum.</li>
</ul>


With the HSI surging 21.2% since 24 Sep and many stocks have even doubled, the strategy in the HK and China markets will move to chase the laggards.
Among the underperforming HSI constituents, China Resources Power (836 HK) and China Mobile (941 HK) are the better candidates to pick up performance. 
For HSCEI, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) and China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) have lagged but their stories are interesting and should regain momentum.


Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers</li>
<li>The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24</li>
<li>The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24</li>
</ul>


Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers
The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24
The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24


Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

<ul>
<li>With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. </li>
<li>Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a> shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans</li>
</ul>


With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. 
Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.

Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK) shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans


China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

China

Bank of Communications Co. Ltd. provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 18th): Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | The HSI Rally: Go LONG Now or Wait?

The Hang Seng Index rally went vertical, then pulled back last week. Is this the right time to go in LONG? Or better wait for the index to pullback...

Nico Rosti

China & HK Strategy: What to Grab?

Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

There are losses at China developers and some of this is new or losses are much higher. This is not fully reflected in headline figures at China...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 18th): Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Meituan, HKEx,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | The HSI Rally: Go LONG Now or Wait?

The Hang Seng Index rally went vertical, then pulled back last week. Is this the right time to go in LONG? Or better wait for the index to pullback...

Nico Rosti

China & HK Strategy: What to Grab?

​Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

There are losses at China developers and some of this is new or losses are much higher. This is not fully reflected in headline figures at China...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...