Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>HK$1.32/Share, a 15.79% premium to undisturbed, and a massive 86.49% discount to NAV. For a rural commercial bank privatisation, there is nothing pretty in those numbers.</li>
<li>Even the Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jinzhou-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21014:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jilin-jiutai-rural-comm-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23735:1" rel="noopener">Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK)</a> were pitched (slightly) higher, from a P/NAV standpoint. And both were perennially suspended.</li>
<li>This is privatisation via a voluntary offer, NOT a privatisation via a Merger by Absorption. As such there is scheme-like vote AND a 90% tendering condition.</li>
</ul>


HK$1.32/Share, a 15.79% premium to undisturbed, and a massive 86.49% discount to NAV. For a rural commercial bank privatisation, there is nothing pretty in those numbers.
Even the Offers for Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK) and Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK) were pitched (slightly) higher, from a P/NAV standpoint. And both were perennially suspended.
This is privatisation via a voluntary offer, NOT a privatisation via a Merger by Absorption. As such there is scheme-like vote AND a 90% tendering condition.


Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Dire Straits, Dire Offer Price

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shengjing-bank-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:96:1" rel="noopener">Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK)</a> disclosed a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal by Shenyang SASAC at HK$1.32 per H Share, a 15.8% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The key conditions are H Shareholder approval of the delisting and a minimum acceptance condition (50% of outstanding and 90% of H Shares). The offer has NOT been declared final.</li>
<li>The offer is unattractive compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples and historical trading ranges. The satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition is the key risk.  </li>
</ul>



Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) disclosed a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal by Shenyang SASAC at HK$1.32 per H Share, a 15.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
The key conditions are H Shareholder approval of the delisting and a minimum acceptance condition (50% of outstanding and 90% of H Shares). The offer has NOT been declared final.
The offer is unattractive compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples and historical trading ranges. The satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition is the key risk.  


Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): A Light Conditional VGO and Delisting Proposal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shengjing-bank-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:96:1" rel="noopener">Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK)</a> entered a trading halt “pending the publication of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.”</li>
<li>It is likely that the SASAC of Shenyang Municipal People’s Government, the largest shareholder, is seeking to privatise Shengjing.</li>
<li>Precedents point to a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal. My estimated offer price range is HK$2.00-HK$2.80, a 75.4%-145% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK) entered a trading halt “pending the publication of an announcement pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.”
It is likely that the SASAC of Shenyang Municipal People’s Government, the largest shareholder, is seeking to privatise Shengjing.
Precedents point to a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal. My estimated offer price range is HK$2.00-HK$2.80, a 75.4%-145% premium to the last close.


Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Privatisation on the Cards?

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jilin-jiutai-rural-comm-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23735:1" rel="noopener">Jilin Bank (6122 HK)</a>, as discussed in<a href="https://skr.ma/UL5z1" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson's Choice</a>
</li>
<li>This follows a similar bailout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-jinzhou-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21014:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK)</a> in early 2024, as detailed in <a href="https://skr.ma/N19a2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.</a>
</li>
<li>Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.  </li>
</ul>


Last week, CICC Hong Kong and SOE Jilin Financial Holding Group tabled a rescue offer for Jilin Bank (6122 HK), as discussed in Jilin Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson's Choice

This follows a similar bailout of Bank Of Jinzhou (416 HK) in early 2024, as detailed in Bank of Jinzhou (416 HK) To Be Taken Private.

Tarring the sector with same brush is potentially oversimplifying the situation. But the issues faced by Jilin Bank and BoJ are unlikely to be isolated. Below I dig deeper.  


Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

Equity Capital Markets

Luzhou Commercial Bank Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27817" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27817:1">Luzhou Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983 HK)</a> is a Chinese state-controlled city commercial bank. Luzhou Bank has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds between HK$1.6 billion ($208 million) to HK$1.8 billion ($240 million).<div class="content-highlight">Our analysis suggests that Luzhou Bank’s fundamentals are mixed as its excellent asset quality is offset by the sharp deceleration in growth in 1H18.</div>

Luzhou Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983 HK) is a Chinese state-controlled city commercial bank. Luzhou Bank has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net proceeds between HK$1.6 billion ($208 million) to HK$1.8 billion ($240 million).Our analysis suggests that Luzhou Bank’s fundamentals are mixed as its excellent asset quality is offset by the sharp deceleration in growth in 1H18.

Luzhou Bank IPO Preview: Excellent Asset Quality Dulled by Slowing Growth

China

Bank of Gansu Co., Ltd. provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, bonds, insurance, investment banking, time deposit, and debit and credit cards. Bank of Gansu provides its services throughout Gansu.

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Bank of Gansu (2139 HK)

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Dire Straits, Dire Offer Price

This probably gets up, in short succession. If illiquid arbs are your bag, pay up to HK$1.25 assuming a four-month off-ramp. Otherwise, look...

David Blennerhassett

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): A Light Conditional VGO and Delisting Proposal

The offer is low-balled by most measures, and the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition is the key risk. There is a chance of a bump, as...

Arun George

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Privatisation on the Cards?

Shares are in a trading halt. Precedents point to a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal. My estimated offer price range is HK$2.00...

Arun George

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

This is largely an objective insight. There can be no guarantee/certainty why one bank may need to hoist the white flag, while another does not....

David Blennerhassett

Luzhou Bank IPO Preview: Excellent Asset Quality Dulled by Slowing Growth

Luzhou Commercial Bank Co Ltd (1983 HK) is a Chinese state-controlled city commercial bank. Luzhou Bank has launched a Hong Kong IPO to raise net...

Arun George

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