Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

*MUFG Pre-Announcement: According to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) [MUFG], FY 2019 preliminary profit declined to its lowest level in a decade after MUFG added JPY 100 bn to JPY 520 bn (results due out on May 15th) due to  COVID-19-related charges and stock holdings hurt by volatile markets. This is the second earnings revision in less than a year, as guidance is now down 40% in aggregate.*Still Overstating Earnings Despite Downgrade: All else equal, MUFG – based on its lax discretionary provisioning methodology - is overstating preliminary results between JPY 916-1,042 bn, by our calculation.*Pig Piling Continues: The lack of provisioning is far from the only problem MUFG must manage. ACOM is a chronically understates kaburai risk; post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; continued impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

*MUFG Pre-Announcement: According to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) [MUFG], FY 2019 preliminary profit declined to its lowest level in a decade after MUFG added JPY 100 bn to JPY 520 bn (results due out on May 15th) due to  COVID-19-related charges and stock holdings hurt by volatile markets. This is the second earnings revision in less than a year, as guidance is now down 40% in aggregate.*Still Overstating Earnings Despite Downgrade: All else equal, MUFG – based on its lax discretionary provisioning methodology - is overstating preliminary results between JPY 916-1,042 bn, by our calculation.*Pig Piling Continues: The lack of provisioning is far from the only problem MUFG must manage. ACOM is a chronically understates kaburai risk; post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; continued impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Tourism is one of the most important industries in the Ryukyu Islands, home to regional bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-the-ryukyus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20702:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of The Ryukyus (8399 JP)</a>.  When the tourist industry is effectively shut down, as it has under the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the local economy suffers immensely.   The bank has recently issued a profit warning, citing rising credit costs as it moves to support an increasing number of small businesses struggling to keep up their loan and interest repayments.  We expect the prefecture’s two other local banks, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-okinawa-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6111:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Okinawa (8397 JP)</a> and the unlisted Okinawa Kaiho Bank, to announce similar measures in the next few weeks prior to the announcement of FY3/2020 results after the end of Golden Week in early May.  Foreign institutional investors hold just under 18% of outstanding shares.  Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Tourism is one of the most important industries in the Ryukyu Islands, home to regional bank Bank Of The Ryukyus (8399 JP).  When the tourist industry is effectively shut down, as it has under the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the local economy suffers immensely.   The bank has recently issued a profit warning, citing rising credit costs as it moves to support an increasing number of small businesses struggling to keep up their loan and interest repayments.  We expect the prefecture’s two other local banks, namely Bank Of Okinawa (8397 JP) and the unlisted Okinawa Kaiho Bank, to announce similar measures in the next few weeks prior to the announcement of FY3/2020 results after the end of Golden Week in early May.  Foreign institutional investors hold just under 18% of outstanding shares.  Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Bank of the Ryukyus (8399 JP): Tourist Trapped

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/174/original/File%202020-04-16%206%2023%2053.jpeg?1586985893" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128174"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Tokyo Metropolitan Government</div>FLATTENING - Tokyo saw 127 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 yesterday, 35% below the peak number of 197. The rolling 7-day average number of cases is now flattening out. For Japan, the case count rose by 315, 56% below the peak of April 12th. The number of nationwide deaths rose by seven to 169 for a CFR of 2.0. Due to the lagging effect, the number of fatalities and can be expected to stay in double-digits, particularly as more care homes become infected. BUREAUCRACY - Over 47,000 businesses in Tokyo have consulted labour bureaus concerning the government's 'employment adjustment subsidy', and 2,859 applications have been submitted. Of these, 214 applications have been submitted, but just two have so far received subsidies.  Similar delays have been reported in other prefectures. These delays, as well as the controversy over the exclusion of the self-employed, have prompted the heads of the LDP and Komeito coalition parties to call for an immediate ¥100,000 cash transfer to all citizens.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/175/original/2020-04-16_06-51-02.png?1586987506" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128175"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • JNTO</div>INBOUND - Tourist arrivals are now down 93% year-on-year putting the government's target of 40m visitors and their ¥8t of spending this year under a cloud. Perhaps the more interesting question is who and from where were the 194,000 tourists who entered Japan last month?<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/181/original/2020-04-16_07-39-54.png?1586990425" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128181"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>BOJ STEPPING UP - Interestingly, the Bank of Japan intervened yesterday despite the market not falling at any point below the levels reached the previous day. The percentage of value traded remains high at 4.76%. In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. As we are winding down the first wave of reports, we have reverted to covering all companies rather than just the large-caps. The positive/neutral/negative balance for the five results was 1:0:4; and for the 19 revisions/forecasts, the split was 8:1:10. Only one of the three companies announcing full-year results did not make a forecast for the current year.SFI TRANSMISSION - Lastly, we would recommend a <a href="https://www.santafe.edu/research/projects/transmission-sfi-insights-covid-19" target="_blank" rel="noopener">series</a> of short papers from the Santa Fe Institute on the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of complexity science and in particular this <a href="https://sfi-edu.s3.amazonaws.com/sfi-edu/production/uploads/ckeditor/2020/04/08/t-010-miller.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">contribution</a> from renowned value manager, Bill Miller which opens as follows:-<blockquote>There have been four great stock market buying opportunities in my lifetime. This is the fifth Bill Miller, Miller Value Partners</blockquote>

Source • Tokyo Metropolitan GovernmentFLATTENING - Tokyo saw 127 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 yesterday, 35% below the peak number of 197. The rolling 7-day average number of cases is now flattening out. For Japan, the case count rose by 315, 56% below the peak of April 12th. The number of nationwide deaths rose by seven to 169 for a CFR of 2.0. Due to the lagging effect, the number of fatalities and can be expected to stay in double-digits, particularly as more care homes become infected. BUREAUCRACY - Over 47,000 businesses in Tokyo have consulted labour bureaus concerning the government's 'employment adjustment subsidy', and 2,859 applications have been submitted. Of these, 214 applications have been submitted, but just two have so far received subsidies.  Similar delays have been reported in other prefectures. These delays, as well as the controversy over the exclusion of the self-employed, have prompted the heads of the LDP and Komeito coalition parties to call for an immediate ¥100,000 cash transfer to all citizens.Source • JNTOINBOUND - Tourist arrivals are now down 93% year-on-year putting the government's target of 40m visitors and their ¥8t of spending this year under a cloud. Perhaps the more interesting question is who and from where were the 194,000 tourists who entered Japan last month?Source • Japan AnalyticsBOJ STEPPING UP - Interestingly, the Bank of Japan intervened yesterday despite the market not falling at any point below the levels reached the previous day. The percentage of value traded remains high at 4.76%. In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. As we are winding down the first wave of reports, we have reverted to covering all companies rather than just the large-caps. The positive/neutral/negative balance for the five results was 1:0:4; and for the 19 revisions/forecasts, the split was 8:1:10. Only one of the three companies announcing full-year results did not make a forecast for the current year.SFI TRANSMISSION - Lastly, we would recommend a series of short papers from the Santa Fe Institute on the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of complexity science and in particular this contribution from renowned value manager, Bill Miller which opens as follows:-There have been four great stock market buying opportunities in my lifetime. This is the fifth Bill Miller, Miller Value Partners

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 15th April - Flattening

Having reached a high of ¥1,852 on July 31 2018, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20702" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20702:1">Bank Of The Ryukyus (8399 JP)</a>’ share price nosedived 15% on Monday of last week to a low of ¥1,272 before recovering to ¥1,320 at the close of business on Friday August 31.  Turnover on Friday was 1.34 million shares: over 11x normal daily trading volume.  Surely not caused by rumours of yet another “inappropriate” regional bank lending scandal?  Fortunately, no: just a very badly-timed announcement of an attempt to raise an additional ¥6 billion (approx. US$55 million) in new capital to support lending operations in the scuba-diving and snorkeling paradise that is Okinawa Prefecture. While the stock may look inexpensive, trading on a PER of 8.4x (using the bank’s own FY3/2019 guidance) and on an historic PBR of just 0.43x, there are good reasons for this low valuation.  The current surge in volume is likely to be only temporary: a value trap for the unwary.  Caveat emptor (may the buyer beware!).

Having reached a high of ¥1,852 on July 31 2018, Bank Of The Ryukyus (8399 JP)’ share price nosedived 15% on Monday of last week to a low of ¥1,272 before recovering to ¥1,320 at the close of business on Friday August 31.  Turnover on Friday was 1.34 million shares: over 11x normal daily trading volume.  Surely not caused by rumours of yet another “inappropriate” regional bank lending scandal?  Fortunately, no: just a very badly-timed announcement of an attempt to raise an additional ¥6 billion (approx. US$55 million) in new capital to support lending operations in the scuba-diving and snorkeling paradise that is Okinawa Prefecture. While the stock may look inexpensive, trading on a PER of 8.4x (using the bank’s own FY3/2019 guidance) and on an historic PBR of just 0.43x, there are good reasons for this low valuation.  The current surge in volume is likely to be only temporary: a value trap for the unwary.  Caveat emptor (may the buyer beware!).

Bank of the Ryukyus (8399 JP): Taking a Dive

Japan

Bank of The Ryukyus, Limited is a regional bank based in Okinawa Prefecture. The Bank provides general banking services including deposits, loans, exchange transactions, and corresponding banking services.  Bank of The Ryukyus also provides financial services such as securities brokerage, money trust, credit cards, and leasing.

Bank Of The Ryukyus (8399 JP)

MUFG – Painful to Watch

*MUFG Pre-Announcement: According to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) [MUFG], FY 2019 preliminary profit declined to its lowest level in a...

Thomas J. Monaco