Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.</li>
<li>92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.</li>
<li>Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.</li>
</ul>


40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Stock markets around the world have been reaching record levels, thanks to the unprecedented amounts of money being pumped into the financial markets by the advanced nations’ central banks in a bid to offset the economic damage caused by COVID-19.  In Japan, too, the Topix Index finished 2020 at 1804.68, just off its high-point for the year and up a very modest 4.8% YoY after plummeting around 500 points in March.
For investors in Japanese bank stocks, however, it was another year of pain: the Topix Bank Index closed 2020 down 21.7% YoY.  Moreover, just 5 bank stocks out of the total of 92 showed positive gains YoY.  All 7 major Japanese banks showed YoY declines: the ‘best-performer’ was down 21.1% YoY, with the average major bank YoY decline exceeding 25%.  By the end of 2020, 13 Japanese bank stocks had lost over one-third of their value, although they had been considerably lower earlier in the year.
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/180/838/original/8300-WR-JBanks-2020-0104+TPNBNKvsTPX+in+2020.jpg?1609734252" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="180838"></figure>

</section>
2021 commences with bank lending at near record-high levels after a record surge in lending, a mountain of cash on deposit that the banks are struggling to deploy profitably, exceptionally low loan to deposit (LDR) ratios, margins under pressure, profits under pressure and, for many banks, dividends under pressure as well.  None of this is likely to boost investor confidence in Japanese bank stocks.
Business models need to be reinvented to properly incorporate the new digital era, branches amalgamated or closed, and staff reduced.  This will take time and be costly.
Meanwhile, two banks have already suggested that they will likely make consolidated net losses in FY3/3021, with others perhaps to follow as we approach the end of the fiscal year in March.
2021 will also see a handful of regional bank mergers; indeed, this has already started with the first on 1 January 2021, creating the Daishi Hokuetsu Bank (part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daishi-hokuetsu-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27533:1" rel="noopener">Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)</a> ).  While these will be welcomed by the Suga Administration, which is actively encouraging a reduction in the number of regional banks, especially in the more rural parts of the country, there is no guarantee that the surviving entities will be any more profitable or efficient than their predecessors.
Then there is the coronavirus pandemic, which continues to cause social lockdowns, economic disruption, and financial uncertainty aside from its devastating impact on the health and wellbeing of humankind.  All of this still needs to be properly discounted in Japanese bank share prices.  We anticipate further share price weakness in many Japanese banks in 2021.
“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Stock markets around the world have been reaching record levels, thanks to the unprecedented amounts of money being pumped into the financial markets by the advanced nations’ central banks in a bid to offset the economic damage caused by COVID-19.  In Japan, too, the Topix Index finished 2020 at 1804.68, just off its high-point for the year and up a very modest 4.8% YoY after plummeting around 500 points in March.
For investors in Japanese bank stocks, however, it was another year of pain: the Topix Bank Index closed 2020 down 21.7% YoY.  Moreover, just 5 bank stocks out of the total of 92 showed positive gains YoY.  All 7 major Japanese banks showed YoY declines: the ‘best-performer’ was down 21.1% YoY, with the average major bank YoY decline exceeding 25%.  By the end of 2020, 13 Japanese bank stocks had lost over one-third of their value, although they had been considerably lower earlier in the year.




2021 commences with bank lending at near record-high levels after a record surge in lending, a mountain of cash on deposit that the banks are struggling to deploy profitably, exceptionally low loan to deposit (LDR) ratios, margins under pressure, profits under pressure and, for many banks, dividends under pressure as well.  None of this is likely to boost investor confidence in Japanese bank stocks.
Business models need to be reinvented to properly incorporate the new digital era, branches amalgamated or closed, and staff reduced.  This will take time and be costly.
Meanwhile, two banks have already suggested that they will likely make consolidated net losses in FY3/3021, with others perhaps to follow as we approach the end of the fiscal year in March.
2021 will also see a handful of regional bank mergers; indeed, this has already started with the first on 1 January 2021, creating the Daishi Hokuetsu Bank (part of the Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP) ).  While these will be welcomed by the Suga Administration, which is actively encouraging a reduction in the number of regional banks, especially in the more rural parts of the country, there is no guarantee that the surviving entities will be any more profitable or efficient than their predecessors.
Then there is the coronavirus pandemic, which continues to cause social lockdowns, economic disruption, and financial uncertainty aside from its devastating impact on the health and wellbeing of humankind.  All of this still needs to be properly discounted in Japanese bank share prices.  We anticipate further share price weakness in many Japanese banks in 2021.
“Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2021 and beyond.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-toyama-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3496:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Toyama /Ltd (8365 JP)</a>’s share price has risen over 36% in the last 30 days on 4x normal daily trading volume and has shot up an astonishing +135% in the last six months.  What is going on, and why do foreign investors still own under 1% of outstanding shares if this bank is such an outstanding performer?
Although the stock prices of major Japanese banks have barely moved over the last month, some regional bank stocks have seen a surge in trading volume and double-digit improvements in their share prices.  This surge is attributable to comments made in early September by newly-elected Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga that there were “too many regional banks”, prompting speculation that mergers of regional and secondary regional banks might be actively encouraged under the incoming Suga Government.
However, we think the sudden rise in Bank of Toyama’s stock price has less to do with PM Suga’s comments on overbanking in Japan and more to do with stock ‘cornering’ by a group or groups of domestic speculators.  This has all the signs of a classic domestic ‘ramp’, designed to quickly push up the share price of a target stock and then offload the accumulated shares for a quick profit close to the top of the price range onto unsuspecting punters drawn by the action.  The bank’s fundamentals simply do not support current valuations.  Foreign investors should steer well clear.   Caveat emptor!  (May the buyer beware!)

Bank Of Toyama /Ltd (8365 JP)’s share price has risen over 36% in the last 30 days on 4x normal daily trading volume and has shot up an astonishing +135% in the last six months.  What is going on, and why do foreign investors still own under 1% of outstanding shares if this bank is such an outstanding performer?
Although the stock prices of major Japanese banks have barely moved over the last month, some regional bank stocks have seen a surge in trading volume and double-digit improvements in their share prices.  This surge is attributable to comments made in early September by newly-elected Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga that there were “too many regional banks”, prompting speculation that mergers of regional and secondary regional banks might be actively encouraged under the incoming Suga Government.
However, we think the sudden rise in Bank of Toyama’s stock price has less to do with PM Suga’s comments on overbanking in Japan and more to do with stock ‘cornering’ by a group or groups of domestic speculators.  This has all the signs of a classic domestic ‘ramp’, designed to quickly push up the share price of a target stock and then offload the accumulated shares for a quick profit close to the top of the price range onto unsuspecting punters drawn by the action.  The bank’s fundamentals simply do not support current valuations.  Foreign investors should steer well clear.   Caveat emptor!  (May the buyer beware!)

Bank of Toyama (8365 JP):  Irrational Exuberance

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimizu-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15400:1" rel="noopener">Shimizu Bank (8364 JP)</a>, a small Japanese regional bank from Shizuoka Prefecture in the Chubu Region of central Japan, has slashed its FY3/2020 forecast for consolidated profits by ¥6.3 billion and is now warning of consolidated net losses of as much as ¥3.9 billion, or ¥336.67/share.  The problem seems to be hefty valuation losses in the bank’s investment trusts and equities portfolio, for which the turmoil in global markets caused by the coronavirus pandemic is being blamed. But Shimizu Bank was running into trouble long before the outbreak of COVID-19, with a chronically high Overhead Ratio (OHR) eating into revenues, falling net loan margins, downward pressure on net interest income and core earnings, and a tendency to rely on equity-related profits to shore up reported earnings.Given that the bank only recently agreed to have online financial specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">Sbi Holdings (8473 JP)</a> acquire around 3% of Shimizu Bank’s shares and become a major shareholder, it seems that SBI Group’s president and financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao is going to be a busy man sorting his latest regional bank alliance out and recouping his investment.Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Shimizu Bank (8364 JP), a small Japanese regional bank from Shizuoka Prefecture in the Chubu Region of central Japan, has slashed its FY3/2020 forecast for consolidated profits by ¥6.3 billion and is now warning of consolidated net losses of as much as ¥3.9 billion, or ¥336.67/share.  The problem seems to be hefty valuation losses in the bank’s investment trusts and equities portfolio, for which the turmoil in global markets caused by the coronavirus pandemic is being blamed. But Shimizu Bank was running into trouble long before the outbreak of COVID-19, with a chronically high Overhead Ratio (OHR) eating into revenues, falling net loan margins, downward pressure on net interest income and core earnings, and a tendency to rely on equity-related profits to shore up reported earnings.Given that the bank only recently agreed to have online financial specialist Sbi Holdings (8473 JP) acquire around 3% of Shimizu Bank’s shares and become a major shareholder, it seems that SBI Group’s president and financial entrepreneur Yoshitaka Kitao is going to be a busy man sorting his latest regional bank alliance out and recouping his investment.Caveat Emptor!  (May the Buyer Beware!)

Shimizu Bank  (8364 JP):  Clear Water Runs Red

After a somewhat euphoric start to September, with some Japanese bank stocks recovering as much as 20% from their mid-August lows on a global wave of ‘Value over Momentum’ buying, we expect the market to return sharply to reality in October, leaving Japanese bank stocks in danger of sinking back to those mid-August lows, if not lower.
Share price performance in the April-September 2019 1st Half of the FY3/2020 fiscal year showed negative returns across the Japanese banking sector for all but a handful of largely-illiquid small banks. October starts with an increase in Japanese consumption tax to 10%, and may end with Britain crashing out of the EU with no deal whatsoever. If investors move to ‘risk off’, with global markets overshadowed by concerns that the global economy may be teetering on recession as the US-China ‘trade war’ continues, we expect the Yen to strengthen as part of a ‘flight to safety’: not good for Japanese bank stocks generally.
The rise in consumption tax is a risky move for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as past increases have been followed by a collapse in consumer spending. Any attempts by the Bank of Japan to head off an economic slowdown by resorting to more quantitative easing spells bad news for the embattled Japanese banks, especially the regionals and secondary regionals which remain overly-reliant on interest income. It is all looking rather unpleasant. Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks in 2019.

After a somewhat euphoric start to September, with some Japanese bank stocks recovering as much as 20% from their mid-August lows on a global wave of ‘Value over Momentum’ buying, we expect the market to return sharply to reality in October, leaving Japanese bank stocks in danger of sinking back to those mid-August lows, if not lower.
Share price performance in the April-September 2019 1st Half of the FY3/2020 fiscal year showed negative returns across the Japanese banking sector for all but a handful of largely-illiquid small banks. October starts with an increase in Japanese consumption tax to 10%, and may end with Britain crashing out of the EU with no deal whatsoever. If investors move to ‘risk off’, with global markets overshadowed by concerns that the global economy may be teetering on recession as the US-China ‘trade war’ continues, we expect the Yen to strengthen as part of a ‘flight to safety’: not good for Japanese bank stocks generally.
The rise in consumption tax is a risky move for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as past increases have been followed by a collapse in consumer spending. Any attempts by the Bank of Japan to head off an economic slowdown by resorting to more quantitative easing spells bad news for the embattled Japanese banks, especially the regionals and secondary regionals which remain overly-reliant on interest income. It is all looking rather unpleasant. Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks in 2019.

Japan

THE TOYAMA BANK, LTD. is a regional bank based in Toyama.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, foreign exchange transactions, and loans to local customers.

Bank Of Toyama /Ltd (8365 JP)

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

The macro backdrop for Japanese banks is pretty good. Business restructuring efforts are bearing fruit. Global macro is adding fees. Stocks are up,...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Banks: Ever Lower

For investors in Japanese bank stocks, 2020 was another year of pain. The sector fell almost 22% YoY; only 5 bank stocks out of 92 registered YoY...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Bank of Toyama (8365 JP): Irrational Exuberance

Bank Of Toyama /Ltd (8365 JP)’s share price has risen over 36% in the last 30 days on 4x normal daily trading volume and has shot up an astonishing...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Shimizu Bank (8364 JP): Clear Water Runs Red

Shimizu Bank (8364 JP), a small Japanese regional bank from Shizuoka Prefecture in the Chubu Region of central Japan, has slashed its FY3/2020...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Banks: A Chill Wind in October

After a somewhat euphoric start to September, with some Japanese bank stocks recovering as much as 20% from their mid-August lows on a global wave...

J. Brian Waterhouse