External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BTPS booked a net profit of Rp218bn in 3Q24 (-24% qoq, -13% yoy) driven by higher qoq CoC, in line with ours but below consensus est.</li><li>Following declines in the past two quarters, CoC rose to 14.7% in 3Q24 as the bank continues to focus on asset quality.</li><li>Maintain Hold rating with a lower TP of Rp1,200 as we tweaked FY25F NP by 3%, resulting in a lower RoE and FV PBV of 0.9x (from 1.0x prev.)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BTPS booked a net profit of Rp218bn in 3Q24 (-24% qoq, -13% yoy) driven by higher qoq CoC, in line with ours but below consensus est.Following declines in the past two quarters, CoC rose to 14.7% in 3Q24 as the bank continues to focus on asset quality.Maintain Hold rating with a lower TP of Rp1,200 as we tweaked FY25F NP by 3%, resulting in a lower RoE and FV PBV of 0.9x (from 1.0x prev.)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BTPS IJ  - 9M24 in Line with Ours/Below Cons., as Persistently High CoC Dragged Down 3Q24 Earnings

<ul><li>BTPS’s NPL cycle has peaked, but we expect the recovery to be gradual, resulting in slow ROE improvement in FY24-26F.</li><li>We see downside risk from potential disappointment in 4Q24, while low fund position might serve as support to the share price.</li><li>We re-initiate coverage on BTPS with a Hold rating and a TP of Rp1,300 based on an iCoE of 11.6% (-1SD), LTG of 3%, and FY24F ROE of 11.5%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BTPS’s NPL cycle has peaked, but we expect the recovery to be gradual, resulting in slow ROE improvement in FY24-26F.We see downside risk from potential disappointment in 4Q24, while low fund position might serve as support to the share price.We re-initiate coverage on BTPS with a Hold rating and a TP of Rp1,300 based on an iCoE of 11.6% (-1SD), LTG of 3%, and FY24F ROE of 11.5%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank BTPN Syariah - NPL Cycle Hits Bottom, A Long Road to Recovery Ahead

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. </li>
<li>NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. </li>
<li>Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. </li>
</ul>


It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. 
NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. 
Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. 


Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

<ul><li>We reiterate our BUY call on BTPS with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR3,000 (implying 2.2x PBV 2024F) as we roll over our valuation to 2024F.</li><li>Based on our recent discussions with BTPS, the bank is reimplementing its prepandemic business process by requiring its borrowers to attend group meetings while utilizing an attendance rate of 75% as the inflection point for an improvement in assets quality.</li><li>All in all, we expect less CoC pressure, thus translating to better attendance rates starting in 3Q23 at the soonest.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We reiterate our BUY call on BTPS with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR3,000 (implying 2.2x PBV 2024F) as we roll over our valuation to 2024F.Based on our recent discussions with BTPS, the bank is reimplementing its prepandemic business process by requiring its borrowers to attend group meetings while utilizing an attendance rate of 75% as the inflection point for an improvement in assets quality.All in all, we expect less CoC pressure, thus translating to better attendance rates starting in 3Q23 at the soonest.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BTPN Syariah  - A Weak Quarter as Expected

Indonesia

PT Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk is a sharia commercial bank in Indonesia, providing banking products and services based on Islamic principles. The bank focuses on financial inclusion, catering to productive underprivileged communities, particularly women, by offering savings, deposits, and various sharia financing products. It also provides financial education through its Daya program. The company was founded in 1991 as PT Bank Sahabat Purba Danarta, converted to a sharia bank in 2014, and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.

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Bank BTPN Syariah (BTPS IJ)

BTPS IJ - 9M24 in Line with Ours/Below Cons., as Persistently High CoC Dragged Down 3Q24 Earnings

BTPS booked a net profit of Rp218bn in 3Q24 (-24% qoq, -13% yoy) driven by higher qoq CoC, in line with ours but below consensus est.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank BTPN Syariah - NPL Cycle Hits Bottom, A Long Road to Recovery Ahead

We re-initiate coverage on BTPS with a Hold rating and a TP of Rp1,300 based on an iCoE of 11.6% (-1SD), LTG of 3%, and FY24F ROE of 11.5%.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas

BTPN Syariah - A Weak Quarter as Expected

We reiterate our BUY call on BTPS with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR3,000 (implying 2.2x PBV 2024F) as we roll over our valuation to 2024F.

BRI Danareksa Research

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