Equity Strategy: 2H25: Positioning for a Growth Rebound
We raise our JCI target to 7,960, factoring in premium from anticipated flow into conglo-group stocks, despite our lower FY25 EPS growth f’cast.
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Banks: Deteriorating Household Loans’ Asset Quality (NEUTRAL)
Maintain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our top pick, followed by BTPS, on their earnings momentum and lesser ownership.
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Banks: Beware of Catching the Falling Knives (NEUTRAL)
Bank valuations have derated, but PBV valuations have yet to hit bottom in the past two downcycles, i.e., 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.
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Banks: Liquidity May Ease Faster, but Stable Rupiah Is Needed for the Rally to Sustain (NEUTRAL)
An early rate cut may ease liquidity pressure faster, while some loans and marketable securities are at risk of lower yield.
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Banks: FY25 Outlook: Less money to lend, save, and repay (NEUTRAL)
We expect a moderate earnings growth of 5.8% in FY25F (from 6.7% in FY24F) due to slower loan growth, still tight liquidity, and higher CoC.
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