Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We estimate that Banpu's shares are worth Bt20/sh implying a 20% upside to current share price of Bt16.6/sh (assuming conglomerate discount of 30%). Its current share price implied a discount of 60%, which seems rather excessive. We value the coal assets using EV/reserve based on recent deals and power assets using EV/MW based on either acquisition or replacement costs. We think this and the recent recovery in coal price explains Banpu's recent resurgence despite continued weak financials.</p>

We estimate that Banpu's shares are worth Bt20/sh implying a 20% upside to current share price of Bt16.6/sh (assuming conglomerate discount of 30%). Its current share price implied a discount of 60%, which seems rather excessive. We value the coal assets using EV/reserve based on recent deals and power assets using EV/MW based on either acquisition or replacement costs. We think this and the recent recovery in coal price explains Banpu's recent resurgence despite continued weak financials.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Tuesday 22 March 2016 </p><div><strong>Asia FX action</strong></div><p>To view click on this link:  <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp</a> </strong>5:15 min.</p><p>We run through trade points in Asia FX.</p><div>
<strong>INR</strong> - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.</div><div>
<strong>KRW</strong> - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…

<p><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.</a></p><div>
<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit</a>…</div>

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.
We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit…

Thailand

Banpu Public Company Limited mines for coal and other minerals. The Company produces thermal coal and coking coal, and have expertise in open-pit and underground coal mining operations, as well as coal-fired power generation.  Banpu PCL has business bases in Thailand, Laos, Indonesia, China, Australia and Mongolia.

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Banpu (BANPU-R TB)

Banpu: Valuing the Coal-Power Phoenix

We estimate that Banpu's shares are worth Bt20/sh implying a 20% upside to current share price of Bt16.6/sh (assuming conglomerate discount of...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asia FX Action Points

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia into Next Week

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&P and oil to provide support for a final uptick...

Thomas Schroeder

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