CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong net profit momentum, sales on an upcycle trend, and low volatility in sales relative to its sector </li><li>Executing on its strategy to go from a coal company to a diversified energy company by expansion in US shale gas which should also boost earnings, as gas is less volatile in price than coal </li><li>Coal price should remain strong from North Asian demand due to warm weather and nuclear power shutdowns and because supply in Indonesia was tight in 1H17 due to heavy rainfall </li><li>Trades in line with Thai Energy on 17CE* ROE/PB, offers 5% dividend yield </li><li>Risks: Decrease in coal prices, unplanned power plant shutdown, unfavorable outcome in Hongsa court case</li></ul>* Consensus Estimates

Strong net profit momentum, sales on an upcycle trend, and low volatility in sales relative to its sector Executing on its strategy to go from a coal company to a diversified energy company by expansion in US shale gas which should also boost earnings, as gas is less volatile in price than coal Coal price should remain strong from North Asian demand due to warm weather and nuclear power shutdowns and because supply in Indonesia was tight in 1H17 due to heavy rainfall Trades in line with Thai Energy on 17CE* ROE/PB, offers 5% dividend yield Risks: Decrease in coal prices, unplanned power plant shutdown, unfavorable outcome in Hongsa court case* Consensus Estimates

BANPU: On Track to Become a Diversified Energy Player

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our thoughts on portfolio is simple. “Lay low for the moment yo.” Sometimes, the best thing to do is nothing, and strangely that’s easier said that done. The finger gets itchy when you see stocks dropping, but it looks like they will drop even more. There are two reasons for this. As highlighted earlier in our last review, the recovery looks impressive, but it isn’t as broad-based as it seems. Most of it is externally driven, but though there may be spillover effects to other parts of the…

Our thoughts on portfolio is simple. “Lay low for the moment yo.” Sometimes, the best thing to do is nothing, and strangely that’s easier said that done. The finger gets itchy when you see stocks dropping, but it looks like they will drop even more. There are two reasons for this. As highlighted earlier in our last review, the recovery looks impressive, but it isn’t as broad-based as it seems. Most of it is externally driven, but though there may be spillover effects to other parts of the…

Thai Macro Watch (Part 2): Policy Divergence & Portfolio Thoughts

We had the chance to meet up with Khaleed Hasheem, founder of PSL (one of Thailand's three big shippers), this week and catch up on some of his ideas on the Asian shipping outlook. PSL currently has a fleet of 36 ships. The only guys bigger than this would be TTA of the Mahagitsiri fortune ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hidden-tigers-season-premiere-chocolate-ship-donuts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:9781">Hidden Tigers (Season Premiere): Chocolate Ship Donuts</a>) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11430" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11430:1">Regional Container Line Pcl (RCL TB)</a> yo. After listening to Khaleed, my sense is I'd rather buy a coal producer like Banpu, which we already own…

We had the chance to meet up with Khaleed Hasheem, founder of PSL (one of Thailand's three big shippers), this week and catch up on some of his ideas on the Asian shipping outlook. PSL currently has a fleet of 36 ships. The only guys bigger than this would be TTA of the Mahagitsiri fortune ( Hidden Tigers (Season Premiere): Chocolate Ship Donuts) and Regional Container Line Pcl (RCL TB) yo. After listening to Khaleed, my sense is I'd rather buy a coal producer like Banpu, which we already own…

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

-The oil majors' favourite refining hub in ASEAN is Singapore, while the crude-oil/gas comes mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei. Infusion of Saudi capital will help to partially redress that, although Saudi Arabia is only the 7th largest oil-refining country, and ARAMCO has moderate amounts of technological expertise (mainly from its ownership of S-Oil in Korea). -Malaysia and (especially) Indonesia have been wary of "Arabised" or Wahhabi Islam, and see Saudi offers to widen Arabic…

-The oil majors' favourite refining hub in ASEAN is Singapore, while the crude-oil/gas comes mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei. Infusion of Saudi capital will help to partially redress that, although Saudi Arabia is only the 7th largest oil-refining country, and ARAMCO has moderate amounts of technological expertise (mainly from its ownership of S-Oil in Korea). -Malaysia and (especially) Indonesia have been wary of "Arabised" or Wahhabi Islam, and see Saudi offers to widen Arabic…

King Salman Bearing Gifts: Implications for ASEAN, Oil-Refining and Religion

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

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§  The SGX Maritime &amp; Offshore Services (MOE) Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector, has rebounded 19.7% from its trough on 1 Sep 2016 in tandem with the recovery of crude oil prices, which may be an indication that the sector could be bottoming out.
 
§  Despite the rally, the 18 constituents within the SGX MOE Index are trading at an average current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.7x, with 10 of them trading below their book values.
 
§  Consensus estimates are expecting oil prices to stabilise and…
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§  The SGX Maritime &amp; Offshore Services (MOE) Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector, has rebounded 19.7% from its trough on 1 Sep 2016 in tandem with the recovery of crude oil prices, which may be an indication that the sector could be bottoming out.
 
§  Despite the rally, the 18 constituents within the SGX MOE Index are trading at an average current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.7x, with 10 of them trading below their book values.
 
§  Consensus estimates are expecting oil prices to stabilise and…



SGX's MOE Sector Sustains 4Q16 Momentum into 2017

Thailand

Banpu Public Company Limited mines for coal and other minerals. The Company produces thermal coal and coking coal, and have expertise in open-pit and underground coal mining operations, as well as coal-fired power generation.  Banpu PCL has business bases in Thailand, Laos, Indonesia, China, Australia and Mongolia.

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Banpu (BANPU-R TB)

BANPU: On Track to Become a Diversified Energy Player

Strong net profit momentum, sales on an upcycle trend, and lowvolatility in sales relative to its sector Executing on its strategy to go from a...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Thai Macro Watch (Part 2): Policy Divergence & Portfolio Thoughts

Our thoughts on portfolio is simple. “Lay low for the moment yo.” Sometimes, the best thing to do is nothing, and strangely that’s easier said that...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

The View Through a Shipper's Lens & More

We had the chance to meet up with Khaleed Hasheem, founder of PSL (one of Thailand's three big shippers), this week and catch up on some of his...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

King Salman Bearing Gifts: Implications for ASEAN, Oil-Refining and Religion

-The oil majors' favourite refining hub in ASEAN is Singapore, while the crude-oil/gas comes mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei. Infusion...

Prasenjit K. Basu

SGX's MOE Sector Sustains 4Q16 Momentum into 2017

§ The SGX Maritime & Offshore Services (MOE) Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector, has rebounded 19.7% from its trough on 1 Sep 2016 in...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)