Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.</li>
<li>Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.
The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.
Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.


[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.</li>
<li>Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.</li>
<li>Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 18/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.7m barrel fall). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
Henry Hub is headed for a fourth straight weekly decline. U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, exceeding analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, and Halliburton. Activist investor Elliott raised its stake in BP to just over 5% via derivative contracts.


[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Super Micro Computer / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.</li>
<li>Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. </li>
<li>The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.
Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. 
The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 31/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 8.7m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2.4m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 174 Bcf for the week ending 31/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 167 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.4% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies’ Q4 adjusted earnings rose 8.1% QoQ and beat estimates by 4.8% led by robust growth in the LNG and Integrated Power divisions.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 31/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 8.7m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2.4m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 174 Bcf for the week ending 31/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 167 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.4% below the 5-year seasonal average.
TotalEnergies’ Q4 adjusted earnings rose 8.1% QoQ and beat estimates by 4.8% led by robust growth in the LNG and Integrated Power divisions.


[ETP 2025/06] WTI Pressured by Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Henry Hub Rebounds on Colder Forecasts

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

United Kingdom

Barclays is a British multinational universal bank that provides a wide range of financial products and services, including retail banking, investment banking, wealth management, and credit cards. It serves individuals, small and medium-sized enterprises, and large corporate clients across various industries globally. The company is headquartered in London, England, and traces its origins back to 1690.

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Barclays (BCS US)

[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

US crude inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Analysts lowered price targets for major oil companies,...

Mint Finance

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; Dip Buys Bearing Fruit; $DXY and 10-year Treasury Yield Forming Major Tops?;...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/06] WTI Pressured by Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Henry Hub Rebounds on Colder Forecasts

US oil inventories surged, with crude up by 8.7m barrels and gasoline stocks rising, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. TTE's...

Mint Finance

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

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[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/17] WTI Tumbles Amid U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Henry Hub Continues to Slide

​US crude inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Analysts lowered price targets for major oil companies,...

Mint Finance

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; Dip Buys Bearing Fruit; $DXY and 10-year Treasury Yield Forming Major Tops?;...

Vermilion Research

[ETP 2025/06] WTI Pressured by Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Henry Hub Rebounds on Colder Forecasts

​US oil inventories surged, with crude up by 8.7m barrels and gasoline stocks rising, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. TTE's...

Mint Finance

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

US crude inventories fell, gasoline stockpiles rose, and analysts cut price targets on major oil companies while Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS...

US crude inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell. Analysts lowered price targets for major oil companies,...

US oil inventories surged, with crude up by 8.7m barrels and gasoline stocks rising, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. TTE's...