Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>All banks passed the BoE’s annual stress tests for the first time. No new capital is required, but some capital will become incorporated into regulatory requirements.</li>
<li>With the UK banking system facing cyclical risks back at normal levels, the FPC announced another 50bp CCyB hike to 1.0%, which it sees as cyclically normal for the instrument. However, it will reconsider its adequacy in 2018 H1.</li>
<li>
Normalisation of the countercyclical macroprudential policy instrument matches the maturing of the cycle,…</li>
</ul>


All banks passed the BoE’s annual stress tests for the first time. No new capital is required, but some capital will become incorporated into regulatory requirements.
With the UK banking system facing cyclical risks back at normal levels, the FPC announced another 50bp CCyB hike to 1.0%, which it sees as cyclically normal for the instrument. However, it will reconsider its adequacy in 2018 H1.

Normalisation of the countercyclical macroprudential policy instrument matches the maturing of the cycle,…


BoE: FPC Hikes to Normal Well Ahead of MPC

<ul><li>The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I expect May-18 next.</li><li>Rate changes may be absorbed in spreads, which would pressure the MPC to hike faster and further than my already hawkish forecast (every six months back to 2%).</li><li>With a positive output gap potentially building, rates need to return to neutral, but markets place excessive focus on growth over gaps and do not price this.</li></ul>

The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I expect May-18 next.Rate changes may be absorbed in spreads, which would pressure the MPC to hike faster and further than my already hawkish forecast (every six months back to 2%).With a positive output gap potentially building, rates need to return to neutral, but markets place excessive focus on growth over gaps and do not price this.

BoE: Transmitting Periodic Hawkish Surprises

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

One of several interesting questions from SmartKarma's UK office opening evening...===================================================================================Japan’s city banks are not the firms that first come to mind when you think of leading edge technology, but that may have to start changing as Japanese corporate activity picks up. Ever since rules on Japanese banks investing in fintech firms were lifted, Japan’s city banks have embraced new technologies like blockchain, while the…

One of several interesting questions from SmartKarma's UK office opening evening...===================================================================================Japan’s city banks are not the firms that first come to mind when you think of leading edge technology, but that may have to start changing as Japanese corporate activity picks up. Ever since rules on Japanese banks investing in fintech firms were lifted, Japan’s city banks have embraced new technologies like blockchain, while the…

Japan - Can It Get Its Tech Mojo Back with Fintech?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The Bank of England (BOE) is concerned about UK consumer loans. More succinctly, it is worried about limited provisions taken by UK banks for consumer loans. It is suggesting or guiding or requiring – so far this is unclear – for UK banks to set aside more capital for UK consumer loans. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21976" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA LN)</a> has considerable exposure in the UK and will likely be affected. HSBC Bank Plc, which is mostly UK, accounts for 44% of HSBC Group loans, as at 1H17. The BOE's concerns can not be a…

The Bank of England (BOE) is concerned about UK consumer loans. More succinctly, it is worried about limited provisions taken by UK banks for consumer loans. It is suggesting or guiding or requiring – so far this is unclear – for UK banks to set aside more capital for UK consumer loans. HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA LN) has considerable exposure in the UK and will likely be affected. HSBC Bank Plc, which is mostly UK, accounts for 44% of HSBC Group loans, as at 1H17. The BOE's concerns can not be a…

Bank of England Warns on UK Consumer Loans

United Kingdom

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services.

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Barclays PLC (BARC LN)

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

BoE: FPC Hikes to Normal Well Ahead of MPC

All banks passed the BoE’s annual stress tests for the first time. No new capital is required, but some capital will become incorporated into...

Phil Rush

BoE: Transmitting Periodic Hawkish Surprises

The BoE has delivered its first rate hike in a decade. Future moves will respond to its trade-off, with slack and inflation determining timing. I...

Phil Rush

Japan - Can It Get Its Tech Mojo Back with Fintech?

One of several interesting questions from SmartKarma's UK office opening...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Bank of England Warns on UK Consumer Loans

The Bank of England (BOE) is concerned about UK consumer loans. More succinctly, it is worried about limited provisions taken by UK banks for...

Daniel Tabbush

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