ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This week has been a tough one for the people of Jakarta, as the outgoing Governor was handed an extremely dubious sentence of two years in jail, on an even more dubious trumped up charge of blasphemy. According to some interesting post-election analysis, Ahok lost squarely because of this case. A large number of voters, who approved of the great work he had done in Jakarta, moved to vote against him due to the religious angle (as well as some intimidation it seems).Even though President Jokowi…

This week has been a tough one for the people of Jakarta, as the outgoing Governor was handed an extremely dubious sentence of two years in jail, on an even more dubious trumped up charge of blasphemy. According to some interesting post-election analysis, Ahok lost squarely because of this case. A large number of voters, who approved of the great work he had done in Jakarta, moved to vote against him due to the religious angle (as well as some intimidation it seems).Even though President Jokowi…

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ghostowns, Thaksinites and Casinos

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-steel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16195:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)</a>'s cost are up, but Japan's still a net scrap exporter, with enough scrap to keep Japan scrap prices low enough to keep electric arc furnaces competitive.</li>
<li>I can't see FIRB stomping on the Kestrel  deal. Perhaps behavioural remedies, where possible, such that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a> doesn't divert the majority of the exports to China.</li>
<li>IDX has considerable work to do to address transparency, investability, and credibility. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a> and 64.7%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> are both uninvestable.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)'s cost are up, but Japan's still a net scrap exporter, with enough scrap to keep Japan scrap prices low enough to keep electric arc furnaces competitive.
I can't see FIRB stomping on the Kestrel  deal. Perhaps behavioural remedies, where possible, such that Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) doesn't divert the majority of the exports to China.
IDX has considerable work to do to address transparency, investability, and credibility. Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ) and 64.7%-held Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) are both uninvestable.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia (Persero), Vale Indonesia, Bank Mandiri Persero, Astra International, Sariguna Primatirta, Aneka Tambang Persero.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia (Persero), Vale Indonesia, Bank Mandiri Persero, Astra International, Sariguna Primatirta, Aneka Tambang Persero.


MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Jan): XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia, Vale Indonesia

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Barito Renewables Energy / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>'s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.</li>
<li>With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.</li>
<li>There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)'s stock price has been buffeted by expectations of index inclusion and then an unwind of that positioning a few times over the last year.
With selling from some big shareholders, free float appears to have increased to a point where the stock could be added to a global index in November.
There is also a possibility of being added to another global index in March, but that is a question for the next year.


Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.</li>
<li>With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> in a global index later this month.</li>
<li>The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.


Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

Indonesia

Barito Pacific is an integrated energy and chemicals company. It primarily engages in petrochemical production, offering a range of olefins, polyolefins, styrene monomer, and butadiene. The company also operates in renewable energy, property, and hotel management. It was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Ghostowns, Thaksinites and Casinos

This week has been a tough one for the people of Jakarta, as the outgoing Governor was handed an extremely dubious sentence of two years in jail,...

Angus Mackintosh

Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Jan): XL Axiata, Telkom Indonesia, Vale Indonesia

We analyzed MS-Indonesia's consensus for Jan 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Telkom Indonesia (Persero) (TLKM IJ), Vale...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Potential Index Inclusion in Nov (Finally?)

An increase in float could see Barito Renewables added to a global index in November. Positioning is likely to be lower than the estimated passive...

Brian Freitas

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month

BREN has a higher float following selling from pre-IPO investors. The increased free float market cap could result in inclusion in a global index...

Brian Freitas

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