IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 4 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">MMG (1208 HK)</a> announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.</li>
<li>Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. </li>
<li>MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.</li>
</ul>


On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. 
MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">Mmg Ltd (1208 HK)</a> will raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every 5 existing shares rights offering. The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP.</li>
<li>The rights proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, which will allow it to use other funds to better support the ongoing development of the operating mines.</li>
<li>MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights date. The shares go ex-rights on 11 June, and the rights start trading from 24 June to 2 July (inclusive).</li>
</ul>



Mmg Ltd (1208 HK) will raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every 5 existing shares rights offering. The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP.
The rights proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, which will allow it to use other funds to better support the ongoing development of the operating mines.
MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights date. The shares go ex-rights on 11 June, and the rights start trading from 24 June to 2 July (inclusive).


MMG (1208 HK): US$1.2bn Highly Dilutive Rights Issue

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO.</li>
<li>OceanaGold Philippines (OGPI) is a producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, and a subsidiary of OceanaGold Corporation, a Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) listed gold mining and exploration company.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance and shared our quick thoughts on valuation. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO.
OceanaGold Philippines (OGPI) is a producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, and a subsidiary of OceanaGold Corporation, a Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) listed gold mining and exploration company.
In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance and shared our quick thoughts on valuation. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.


OceanaGold Philippines IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Too Expensive Even at This Price

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> saw its shareholder meeting vote through the Scheme, then on teh 18th, the Special Div went ex-. </li>
<li>Since then, as gold has rebounded sharply, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> has underperformed peers and juniors (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a>) since gold has spiked.</li>
<li>Thursday is the last day of trading and there is a LOT of NEM to trade.</li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) saw its shareholder meeting vote through the Scheme, then on teh 18th, the Special Div went ex-. 
Since then, as gold has rebounded sharply, Newmont Mining (NEM US) has underperformed peers and juniors (VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)) since gold has spiked.
Thursday is the last day of trading and there is a LOT of NEM to trade.


Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing - Flowfront & Gold Price

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>'s IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>’s offer of 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + special dividend + FY2023 dividend <strong><em>to be reasonable but not fair</em></strong>.</li>
<li>The IE valued Newcrest at US$18.64-21.13 per share vs. the transaction value of US$17.10-18.70 per share. The sharp sector de-rating, including Newmont's shares, has impacted the scrip-heavy offer.</li>
<li>The offer remains attractive compared to peer multiples, historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios. At the last close prices and for the 6 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/7.8%. </li>
</ul>



Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)'s IE considers Newmont Mining (NEM US)’s offer of 0.400 Newmont shares per Newcrest share + special dividend + FY2023 dividend to be reasonable but not fair.
The IE valued Newcrest at US$18.64-21.13 per share vs. the transaction value of US$17.10-18.70 per share. The sharp sector de-rating, including Newmont's shares, has impacted the scrip-heavy offer.
The offer remains attractive compared to peer multiples, historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios. At the last close prices and for the 6 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/7.8%. 


Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 October

Canada

Barrick Gold Corporation is an international gold company with operating mines and development projects in the United States, Canada, South America, Australia, and Africa.

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Barrick Gold (ABX CN)

MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

The rights start trading on 24 June. We expect MMG shares to claw back some losses over the rights trading period, particularly towards the end.

Arun George

MMG (1208 HK): US$1.2bn Highly Dilutive Rights Issue

The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP. Precedents suggest that MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights...

Arun George

OceanaGold Philippines IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Too Expensive Even at This Price

OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.

Ethan Aw

Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing - Flowfront & Gold Price

Newmont Mining has run into a "perfect storm" of increasing negative correlation and increasing negative beta to gold vs Peers, and Newcrest...

Travis Lundy

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 October

The offer remains attractive compared to peer multiples, historical prices and VWAP exchange ratios. At the last close prices and for the 6...

Arun George

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