Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday 9 October, largest <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> shareholder MAKI Hiroyuki who is also President and CEO <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6597:1" rel="noopener">Melco Holdings (6676 JP)</a> (a.k.a. Buffalo Inc), <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Z70F.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2026-10-11T23%3A47%3A48Z&amp;se=2031-10-09T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=ZlN8j9BAWwHMZwckJQPtCOc%2FoNMaRr8dEH65e45HT2Y%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> his new larger stake.</li>
<li>Or part of it. He got to 23.32% by 2 October. I expect it's 26-27% as of now, but could be slightly higher. He also released a change in purpose.</li>
<li>That change suggests substantial disagreement with and distrust of management. It threatens a Tender Offer to get over 30% (which he says he intends). Interesting times lie ahead. </li>
</ul>


On Friday 9 October, largest BASE Inc (4477 JP) shareholder MAKI Hiroyuki who is also President and CEO Melco Holdings (6676 JP) (a.k.a. Buffalo Inc), announced his new larger stake.
Or part of it. He got to 23.32% by 2 October. I expect it's 26-27% as of now, but could be slightly higher. He also released a change in purpose.
That change suggests substantial disagreement with and distrust of management. It threatens a Tender Offer to get over 30% (which he says he intends). Interesting times lie ahead. 


[Japan Partial Tender] Maki-San Threatens BASE (4477 JP) Tender - Financial Engineering Risk Rises

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

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<ul>
<li>Maki-San likely holds around 28% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a>, targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.</li>
<li>SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.</li>
<li>At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.</li>
</ul>


Maki-San likely holds around 28% of BASE Inc (4477 JP), targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.
SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.
At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.


BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> disclosed a "<em>difference of views</em>" with Maki-san, who says management ignored the cost of his trading restrictions; he would resume buying from 2 October, targeting over 30%.</li>
<li>With Maki buying at JPY370+, shares trading above terms and the 25% listing floor limiting supply, SBI faces a shortfall at JPY340, and a bump looks inevitable.</li>
<li>SBI likely needs about JPY420 to beat a potential Maki tender, but negotiating with Maki or accepting a small fill (SBI has no minimum) may make more sense.</li>
</ul>



BASE Inc (4477 JP) disclosed a "difference of views" with Maki-san, who says management ignored the cost of his trading restrictions; he would resume buying from 2 October, targeting over 30%.
With Maki buying at JPY370+, shares trading above terms and the 25% listing floor limiting supply, SBI faces a shortfall at JPY340, and a bump looks inevitable.
SBI likely needs about JPY420 to beat a potential Maki tender, but negotiating with Maki or accepting a small fill (SBI has no minimum) may make more sense.


BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> released a statement during the lunch break on 5 October 2026. </li>
<li>It says, in short, that Maki-san, who was wary of SBI/management, had not bought during the Tender Offer Period, but once extended, started to buy. </li>
<li>He bought Friday and will try to get to 30%. He bought a chunk of that Friday. He's in today. There's more to buy. </li>
</ul>



BASE Inc (4477 JP) released a statement during the lunch break on 5 October 2026. 
It says, in short, that Maki-san, who was wary of SBI/management, had not bought during the Tender Offer Period, but once extended, started to buy. 
He bought Friday and will try to get to 30%. He bought a chunk of that Friday. He's in today. There's more to buy. 


[Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) - Maki-San Bought, Will Buy More - Prepare For Launch

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> extended their tender on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> at ¥340 despite the tender having no minimum threshold. They obviously didn't get what they wanted. Not close.</li>
<li>That opened them up to expectations of a bump. For me, those expectations were the original base case but the stock didn't act that way. Partial tender situations are funny.</li>
<li>The next day, shares traded higher but still below ¥340. On Friday, things got more exciting. A successful tender needs to be higher (but SBI could attempt a backdoor trade).</li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) extended their tender on BASE Inc (4477 JP) at ¥340 despite the tender having no minimum threshold. They obviously didn't get what they wanted. Not close.
That opened them up to expectations of a bump. For me, those expectations were the original base case but the stock didn't act that way. Partial tender situations are funny.
The next day, shares traded higher but still below ¥340. On Friday, things got more exciting. A successful tender needs to be higher (but SBI could attempt a backdoor trade).


[Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) - We Needed Bumpity We Got Bumpitrage So What Now?

Japan

BASE, Inc. offers internet based services. The Company provides net shop creation, shopping application development, online payment development, and other services. BASE provides its services throughout Japan.

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BASE Inc (4477 JP)

[Japan Partial Tender] Maki-San Threatens BASE (4477 JP) Tender - Financial Engineering Risk Rises

Maki-san has raised the possibility of a Tender Offer - a known-known because he previously stated he wanted 30+% and the new TOB rules require it....

Travis Lundy

BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In

Maki-san aims for 30%+ via a tender and no longer backs SBI, so SBI's offer can't succeed. SBI either bumps to JPY420–440 or settles for a small...

Arun George

BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

Maki-san is buying BASE again, targeting over 30%. SBI's JPY340 offer will fall short; it likely needs JPY420, but at that price, a deal with Maki...

Arun George

[Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) - Maki-San Bought, Will Buy More - Prepare For Launch

Maki-san was the buyer Friday and he will buy more. He disagrees with management and wants to get to "above 30%" which means he has probably ~6-7mm...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) - We Needed Bumpity We Got Bumpitrage So What Now?

Two days after SBI extended its tender, Somebody decided to target BASE for bumpitrage. It looks like SBI needs to raise now, and not a small...

Travis Lundy

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