Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> announced the Tsuruha/Welcia merger and Partial Tender to get Aeon to 50+% of NEWCO.</li>
<li>The scrip ratio short-changes Tsuruha shareholders. The subsequent partial offer to raise Aeon's stake above 50% is low too. 9.7% shareholder Orbis is already out with a complaint.</li>
<li>But... all is not lost. There are some interesting angles here to complain. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) announced the Tsuruha/Welcia merger and Partial Tender to get Aeon to 50+% of NEWCO.
The scrip ratio short-changes Tsuruha shareholders. The subsequent partial offer to raise Aeon's stake above 50% is low too. 9.7% shareholder Orbis is already out with a complaint.
But... all is not lost. There are some interesting angles here to complain. 


Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities

<ul>
<li>Hugely cash-rich <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cookpad-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23:1" rel="noopener">Cookpad Inc (2193 JP)</a> wouldn't hit my radar except for two things. 1) it was the target of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6597:1" rel="noopener">Melco Holdings (6676 JP)</a> chairman Maki-san a few years ago...</li>
<li>And 2) they did a huge buyback last year which pumped up the stock very bigly. </li>
<li>Maki-San appears long gone from the shares, but now they are doing another big buyback. Just as bigly. But there are new nuances this year.</li>
</ul>


Hugely cash-rich Cookpad Inc (2193 JP) wouldn't hit my radar except for two things. 1) it was the target of Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Maki-san a few years ago...
And 2) they did a huge buyback last year which pumped up the stock very bigly. 
Maki-San appears long gone from the shares, but now they are doing another big buyback. Just as bigly. But there are new nuances this year.


Tinycap Cash-Rich Cookpad (2193) With HUGE Buyback. AGAIN

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12654:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP)</a> on any weakness. There will be strength ahead.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, a third party Offer, as opposed to ENN Group, seems more likely. </li>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu (5019 JP)</a> vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS</a> for the next several weeks. Light and easy drift trade based on pressure increasing and pressure ending before new news in May.</li>
</ul>


Buy Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP) on any weakness. There will be strength ahead.
With ENN Energy (2688 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, a third party Offer, as opposed to ENN Group, seems more likely. 
Be long Idemitsu (5019 JP) vs ENEOS for the next several weeks. Light and easy drift trade based on pressure increasing and pressure ending before new news in May.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hankyu Hanshin REIT, ENN Energy, Idemitsu, HKBN, Jardine Matheson

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> is up more than 27% today as the Mothers Index bounced back 4.5% following a steep sell-off during the last one-month period.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, results were disappointing on both the top line and the bottom line with Q1 revenue and operating loss of ¥2,512m (consensus ¥2,659m) and ¥272m (consensus ¥139.2m) respectively.</li>
<li>After disappointing the market with a guidance range that was significantly below consensus in 2021, Base Inc has withheld from providing 2022 guidance.</li>
</ul>



BASE Inc (4477 JP) is up more than 27% today as the Mothers Index bounced back 4.5% following a steep sell-off during the last one-month period.
Nevertheless, results were disappointing on both the top line and the bottom line with Q1 revenue and operating loss of ¥2,512m (consensus ¥2,659m) and ¥272m (consensus ¥139.2m) respectively.
After disappointing the market with a guidance range that was significantly below consensus in 2021, Base Inc has withheld from providing 2022 guidance.


Base Inc: Shoppers Return to Offline, More Downside Left

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This is an in-depth review of Japanese e-commerce in the last 18 months, a time when e-commerce expanded rapidly and by 2023, e-commerce will be Japan’s single biggest retail channel.</li>
<li>We are now riding a wave of change as retailers integrate the e-commerce channel into their businesses, increasingly approaching a true omnichannel model.</li>
<li>And this is important in Japan because, although e-commerce penetration appears low, this overlooks the importance, convenience and ease of access to physical shops and integration with online.</li>
</ul>


This is an in-depth review of Japanese e-commerce in the last 18 months, a time when e-commerce expanded rapidly and by 2023, e-commerce will be Japan’s single biggest retail channel.
We are now riding a wave of change as retailers integrate the e-commerce channel into their businesses, increasingly approaching a true omnichannel model.
And this is important in Japan because, although e-commerce penetration appears low, this overlooks the importance, convenience and ease of access to physical shops and integration with online.


Japan

BASE, Inc. offers internet based services. The Company provides net shop creation, shopping application development, online payment development, and other services. BASE provides its services throughout Japan.

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BASE Inc (4477 JP)

Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities

The Tsuruha/Welcia/Aeon deal was announced Friday with Welcia Q2 results. Not great Bob. The Tsuruha/Welcia deal takes place well on the wrong side...

Travis Lundy

Tinycap Cash-Rich Cookpad (2193) With HUGE Buyback. AGAIN

Tinycap Cookpad is doing another large buyback. It's big. Last year's bought 10% in a month. This year, float is that much smaller. And there are...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hankyu Hanshin REIT, ENN Energy, Idemitsu, HKBN, Jardine Matheson

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Base Inc: Shoppers Return to Offline, More Downside Left

With 27% upside, Base Inc seems to be moving back into the “Short” territory. However, we won’t consider an outright short position as the oversold...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

E-Commerce in Japan: The Big Review

Japan's e-commerce sector expanded rapidly in the last 18 months. The following is a complete review and analysis of the major trends as well as...

Michael Causton

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