European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bidders Nordic Capital and Permira raised their offer to DKK 250/share (from DKK 233), but ATP’s 10% block and limited irrevocables complicate closing.</li>
<li>Gross spread has widened to 5.71% (DKK 236.5 close on 28 Oct), reflecting rising uncertainty. Implied success probability is now ~76.5%.</li>
<li>High upside if completed, but downside risk remains to pre-deal levels (DKK 192.5). Time to settlement is short, pushing annualized return to ~151%.</li>
</ul>


Bidders Nordic Capital and Permira raised their offer to DKK 250/share (from DKK 233), but ATP’s 10% block and limited irrevocables complicate closing.
Gross spread has widened to 5.71% (DKK 236.5 close on 28 Oct), reflecting rising uncertainty. Implied success probability is now ~76.5%.
High upside if completed, but downside risk remains to pre-deal levels (DKK 192.5). Time to settlement is short, pushing annualized return to ~151%.


<ul>
<li>Bavarian Nordic’s board recommends a DKK 233/share bid, but ATP's 10% block and market premium pricing suggest anticipation of a higher offer or strategic alternatives.</li>
<li>The offer undervalues Bavarian Nordic’s scalable platform, outbreak-response contracts, and optionality; a fair value of DKK 255–265 is justified, with a bull case up to DKK 330/share.</li>
<li>Deal spread trades negative as market expects sweetening; low irrevocables and strategic buyer risk suggest asymmetry for long positions with regulatory and ATP dynamics as key catalysts.</li>
</ul>


Bavarian Nordic’s board recommends a DKK 233/share bid, but ATP's 10% block and market premium pricing suggest anticipation of a higher offer or strategic alternatives.
The offer undervalues Bavarian Nordic’s scalable platform, outbreak-response contracts, and optionality; a fair value of DKK 255–265 is justified, with a bull case up to DKK 330/share.
Deal spread trades negative as market expects sweetening; low irrevocables and strategic buyer risk suggest asymmetry for long positions with regulatory and ATP dynamics as key catalysts.


Bavarian Nordic: Event-Driven Bid with Strategic Block, Bull Case Supports Sweetening

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Innovation data suggests that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayer-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26881:1" rel="noopener">Bayer AG (BAYN GY)</a> has an almost monopoly stake in agriculture-related microbial, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dupont-de-nemours-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9239:1" rel="noopener">DuPont (DD US)</a> </li>
<li>In non-ag microbial space <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codexis-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26400:1" rel="noopener">Codexis Inc (CDXS US)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regeneron-pharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9167:1" rel="noopener">Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN US),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/immatics-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33092:1" rel="noopener">Immatics NV (IMTX US)</a> lead the field</li>
<li>In the nascent area of bacteriophages which could be a game-changer to fight against antibiotic-resistant bacteria BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johnson-johnson" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1132:1" rel="noopener">Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US) </a>lead</li>
</ul>


Innovation data suggests that Bayer AG (BAYN GY) has an almost monopoly stake in agriculture-related microbial, followed by DuPont (DD US) 
In non-ag microbial space Moderna Inc (MRNA US),  Codexis Inc (CDXS US),  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN US),Immatics NV (IMTX US) lead the field
In the nascent area of bacteriophages which could be a game-changer to fight against antibiotic-resistant bacteria BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM, Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US), and Pfizer Inc (PFE US) lead


Insights from Data Mining Technical Publications - Microbes - Bacteriophages

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>In its January 2025 meeting, EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended eight medicines for approval, including four innovative, three biosimilars, and one generic drugs.</li>
<li>The committee has also recommended extensions of indication for eight medicines that are already authorized in the EU.</li>
<li>Marketing applications for two medicines were withdrawn. Among them, withdrawal of Daiichi Sankyo’s datopotamab deruxtecan for non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer is noteworthy.</li>
</ul>


In its January 2025 meeting, EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended eight medicines for approval, including four innovative, three biosimilars, and one generic drugs.
The committee has also recommended extensions of indication for eight medicines that are already authorized in the EU.
Marketing applications for two medicines were withdrawn. Among them, withdrawal of Daiichi Sankyo’s datopotamab deruxtecan for non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer is noteworthy.


CHMP Meeting Update: Eight New Medicines Recommended For Approval

<ul>
<li>We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices</li>
<li>The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   </li>
<li>We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.</li>
</ul>


We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices
The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   
We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.


A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Denmark

Bavarian Nordic A/S operates as a biotechnology company. The Company focuses on research, development, and manufacture of novel cancer immunotherapies and vaccines for infectious diseases. Bavarian Nordic operates worldwide.

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Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA DC)

Bavarian Nordic: Final Offer, Tight Math

Final-offer bid for Bavarian Nordic at DKK 250 faces ATP resistance and tight deal math. 5.7% spread implies 76.5% odds. High-upside, binary...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bavarian Nordic: Event-Driven Bid with Strategic Block, Bull Case Supports Sweetening

Bavarian Nordic bid at DKK 233 undervalues outbreak optionality and M&A runway; ATP blocks delisting. Market bets on sweetening. High-upside arb...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Insights from Data Mining Technical Publications - Microbes - Bacteriophages

Innovations are modifying and harnessing microbes for new uses in agriculture, industry, and as potential new therapeutics to replace or...

Pyari Menon

CHMP Meeting Update: Eight New Medicines Recommended For Approval

In its January 2025 meeting, CHMP recommended 8 drugs for approval, including 4 innovative, 3 biosimilars, and 1 generic drugs. The committee has...

Tina Banerjee

A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Our datamining reports ranks companies within thematic based on innovation quality. We see strong outperformance in a portfolio built using the top...

Pyari Menon

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