Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. </li>
<li>There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. 
There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

<ul>
<li>At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a "cap" on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.</li>
<li>At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.</li>
<li>And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.</li>
</ul>


At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a "cap" on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.
At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.
And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Not much lead from the US, although Broadcom numbers missing after hours set a slightly negative tone for tech, despite NVDA and TSLA posting gains.</li>
<li>The market should like the news that 3382 7&amp;I is engaging with ACT and asking for a higher bid, which may also indicate their failure to attain 'core' status from the JP Govt.</li>
<li>PPIH looks oversold after missing out on NKY225 inclusion yesterday, especially in comparison to Baycurrent who also missed, yet finished the day +4.5%.</li>
</ul>


Not much lead from the US, although Broadcom numbers missing after hours set a slightly negative tone for tech, despite NVDA and TSLA posting gains.
The market should like the news that 3382 7&amp;I is engaging with ACT and asking for a higher bid, which may also indicate their failure to attain 'core' status from the JP Govt.
PPIH looks oversold after missing out on NKY225 inclusion yesterday, especially in comparison to Baycurrent who also missed, yet finished the day +4.5%.


Japan Morning Connection: 7&I, PPIH, Baycurrent

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sep24-nikkei-225-review-results-a-slightly-baffling-2-in-2-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157890" rel="noopener">Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT</a>. </li>
<li>That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. </li>
<li>And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT. 
That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. 
And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.</li>
<li>The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> would be capped. I didn't expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.
The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.
The Nikkei Index Team announced Fast Retailing (9983 JP) would be capped. I didn't expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions - Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

Japan

Baycurrent Consulting , Inc. offers comprehensive consulting services in a wide variety of industries. The company's main focus areas are business strategy consulting, IT consulting, and IT integration.

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BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Quiddity March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal Leaderboard. I see 2 in, 2 out. $3bn a side except if Fast Retailing outperforms N225 by 3%, in which case...

Travis Lundy

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Fast Retailing is the first Nikkei 225 stock to be capped. That meant nearly ¥400bn of selling yesterday. Now it is due to be capped again in 6...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: 7&I, PPIH, Baycurrent

Slight negative tone for tech as Broadcom's earnings miss, while 7&I seeks higher bid from ACT and PPIH looks oversold post-NKY225 exclusion.

Andrew Jackson

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review suggests Nikkei Index Committee "discretion" hinting at the scale of the next rebalance. The most interesting bit may...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions - Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

Nikkei 225 Sep24 Rebal data is done and dusted. I see one automatic DELETE, and one ADD. There is a dark horse possibility to replace that ADD but...

Travis Lundy

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