'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress.

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We all know that Japan has tried to give the impression that they are improving corporate governance. However, when you start to dig into the numbers you see that it is basically just window dressing. We looked at the ages of the Independent Directors and they are not young.... Most should be gardening somewhere in Shizuoka.

We all know that Japan has tried to give the impression that they are improving corporate governance. However, when you start to dig into the numbers you see that it is basically just window dressing. We looked at the ages of the Independent Directors and they are not young.... Most should be gardening somewhere in Shizuoka.  

Independent Director Is a Great Way to Supplement Retirement in Japan....

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Last Thursday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globe-ing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45885:1" rel="noopener">Globe-ing (277A JP)</a> announced that it had been accepted to move to TSE Prime, which according to TOPIX rules, means inclusion in TOPIX on 29 May.</li>
<li>This was not a total surprise. The CEO sold shares to two large foreign institutions last August with the explicit goal of increasing liquidity to get to Prime. </li>
<li>Now it will go in, buying a chunk of Max Real World Float. Growth appears strong. Q3 saw an earnings forecast upgrade but the stock suffers from Not-an-AI-or-Memory-stock-itis.
</li>
</ul>


Last Thursday, Globe-ing (277A JP) announced that it had been accepted to move to TSE Prime, which according to TOPIX rules, means inclusion in TOPIX on 29 May.
This was not a total surprise. The CEO sold shares to two large foreign institutions last August with the explicit goal of increasing liquidity to get to Prime. 
Now it will go in, buying a chunk of Max Real World Float. Growth appears strong. Q3 saw an earnings forecast upgrade but the stock suffers from Not-an-AI-or-Memory-stock-itis.



[Quiddity Index] Globe-Ing (277A) Moves to TSE Prime to TOPIX

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The correct long-term thing to do is, and the right short-term trade don't match. Best to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcj-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14132:1" rel="noopener">MCJ (6670 JP)</a> above the tender offer price or at the offer price.</li>
<li>At 6.1x forward EV/EBITDA - and ~80% discount to NAV - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a> is not expensive.</li>
<li>An interesting fact pattern appears like it might be a setup for a significant change in capital structure for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-steel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16195:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Steel Mfg (5423 JP) T</a> related to the former CEO</li>
</ul>


The correct long-term thing to do is, and the right short-term trade don't match. Best to sell MCJ (6670 JP) above the tender offer price or at the offer price.
At 6.1x forward EV/EBITDA - and ~80% discount to NAV - AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK) is not expensive.
An interesting fact pattern appears like it might be a setup for a significant change in capital structure for Tokyo Steel Mfg (5423 JP) T related to the former CEO


Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, AviChina, Tokyo Steel Mfg, 3SBio

Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP)</a> trade is to short or long-sell into exuberance. Shorts should wait until the pump exhausts itself (or appears to).</li>
<li>At 0.34x forward P/B, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> is cheap. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a> at 0.33x is also inexpensive. But HK IP drags. Ger exposure to the stub.</li>
<li>Elliott sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-o-s-k-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20717:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP)</a> as undervalued. Best to be long than short on an outright basis, but there is not a lot of detail out there yet.</li>
</ul>


The Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP) trade is to short or long-sell into exuberance. Shorts should wait until the pump exhausts itself (or appears to).
At 0.34x forward P/B, Swire Pacific (19 HK) is cheap. Swire Properties (1972 HK) at 0.33x is also inexpensive. But HK IP drags. Ger exposure to the stub.
Elliott sees Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104 JP) as undervalued. Best to be long than short on an outright basis, but there is not a lot of detail out there yet.


Last Week In Event SPACE: TEPCO, Swire, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. CK Hutchison

Japan

Baycurrent Inc. offers comprehensive consulting services in a wide variety of industries. The Company provides business strategy consulting, information technology consulting, information technology integration, and other services. Baycurrent provides its services throughout Japan.

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Baycurrent (6532 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

Independent Director Is a Great Way to Supplement Retirement in Japan....

We all know that Japan has tried to give the impression that they are improving corporate governance. However, when you start to dig into the...

Custom Products Group

[Quiddity Index] Globe-Ing (277A) Moves to TSE Prime to TOPIX

Globe-ing is a premier small management consultant specialising in AI (68% of revs). It wants to become a Japan-origin Palantir but works a bit...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: MCJ, AviChina, Tokyo Steel Mfg, 3SBio

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: TEPCO, Swire, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines. CK Hutchison

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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