Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The 1Q24 core profit beat our forecast due to the upbeat profit contribution from the US CCGT projects.</li><li>The 3Q24E earnings are expected to be the peak quarter of the year due to positive seasonal factors (at the US CCGT and Nam San 3A &amp; 3B projects), which should help enable core profit in 2024E to meet the target or see upside risk.</li><li>We stand by our view that the phase of low core profit will conclude in 2024E, with an uptrend projected thereafter. </li></ul>

The 1Q24 core profit beat our forecast due to the upbeat profit contribution from the US CCGT projects.The 3Q24E earnings are expected to be the peak quarter of the year due to positive seasonal factors (at the US CCGT and Nam San 3A &amp; 3B projects), which should help enable core profit in 2024E to meet the target or see upside risk.We stand by our view that the phase of low core profit will conclude in 2024E, with an uptrend projected thereafter. 

BCPG - Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings Due to High US CCGT Profit Contribution

<ul><li>Power stocks, characterized by high debt leverage, face negative impacts from the extended interest rate uptrend and baht depreciation.</li><li>However, BCPG's current share price indicates limited downside risk, and the phase of low core profit is expected to conclude in 2024E, with an uptrend projected thereafter.</li><li>This may mitigate risks associated with the adder and divestment gaps, with core profit forecast to be near Bt3.0bn in 2031E. We maintain an Outperform rating (12M FV: Bt9.05)</li></ul>

Power stocks, characterized by high debt leverage, face negative impacts from the extended interest rate uptrend and baht depreciation.However, BCPG's current share price indicates limited downside risk, and the phase of low core profit is expected to conclude in 2024E, with an uptrend projected thereafter.This may mitigate risks associated with the adder and divestment gaps, with core profit forecast to be near Bt3.0bn in 2031E. We maintain an Outperform rating (12M FV: Bt9.05)

BCPG - US CCGT Contribution to Boost Earnings Momentum in 1Q24E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat from the previous period.</li><li>These rates align with the Case 3 scenario, representing the lowest figures, and are in line with our 2024E projections, supported by the declining trend in gas costs, including lower LNG prices and increased G1/61 gas volume.</li><li>The decision is expected to facilitate effective management of electricity tariffs and enhance the opportunities and continuity for EGAT's reclamation of the Ft subsidy, which is nearing Bt100bn. </li></ul>

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat from the previous period.These rates align with the Case 3 scenario, representing the lowest figures, and are in line with our 2024E projections, supported by the declining trend in gas costs, including lower LNG prices and increased G1/61 gas volume.The decision is expected to facilitate effective management of electricity tariffs and enhance the opportunities and continuity for EGAT's reclamation of the Ft subsidy, which is nearing Bt100bn. 

Energy (Power) - Flat Electricity Tariff and Ft for May to August

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>After the site visit, we hold a positive view on BCPG’s business expansion potential in Taiwan. Having largely secured the land for proposed 480MW solar projects</li>
<li>Price of Bt13.4. Positive view on expanding base to Taiwan From site visit and presentation of Mizuho bank on solar sector in Taiwan,we observed BCPG is on a fast-paced track </li>
<li>We also see high potential for the company to expand base in Taiwan (1.0-2.0 GW in future,including solar,wind etc.),on the back of supportive renewable energy development policies and less competition</li>
</ul>


After the site visit, we hold a positive view on BCPG’s business expansion potential in Taiwan. Having largely secured the land for proposed 480MW solar projects
Price of Bt13.4. Positive view on expanding base to Taiwan From site visit and presentation of Mizuho bank on solar sector in Taiwan,we observed BCPG is on a fast-paced track 
We also see high potential for the company to expand base in Taiwan (1.0-2.0 GW in future,including solar,wind etc.),on the back of supportive renewable energy development policies and less competition


BCPG : Promising Business Expansion Outlook in Taiwan

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY rating with a TP of 13.40. BCPG’s 3Q22 core profit was at Bt626m (-12%YoY, +14%QoQ),in-line with our expectation. Seasonally stronger hydro plant operations from Lao PDR drove QoQ</li>
<li>Strong hydro plant operations drove 3Q22 results The 3Q22 net profit grew 94% QoQ to Bt640m (-7% YoY) driven by an FX gain of Bt167m (vs -Bt113m in 2Q22). </li>
<li>Excluding the one-time items (asset disposal gain, impairment, and FX loss), the recurring profit stood at Bt626m (-12%YoY, +14%QoQ). The YoY drop was due to a lower revenue contribution </li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY rating with a TP of 13.40. BCPG’s 3Q22 core profit was at Bt626m (-12%YoY, +14%QoQ),in-line with our expectation. Seasonally stronger hydro plant operations from Lao PDR drove QoQ
Strong hydro plant operations drove 3Q22 results The 3Q22 net profit grew 94% QoQ to Bt640m (-7% YoY) driven by an FX gain of Bt167m (vs -Bt113m in 2Q22). 
Excluding the one-time items (asset disposal gain, impairment, and FX loss), the recurring profit stood at Bt626m (-12%YoY, +14%QoQ). The YoY drop was due to a lower revenue contribution 


BCPG : Strong Hydro Plant Operations Drove 3Q22 Earnings

Thailand

BCPG Public Company Limited produces and distributes electricity generated from renewable energy. The Company specializes in solar power with a focuses on the investment, development, and management of renewable power plants.

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BCPG PCL (BCPG TB)

BCPG - Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings Due to High US CCGT Profit Contribution

The 3Q24E earnings are expected to be the peak quarter of the year due to positive seasonal factors (at the US CCGT and Nam San 3A & 3B projects),...

Krungthai XSpring

BCPG - US CCGT Contribution to Boost Earnings Momentum in 1Q24E

Power stocks, characterized by high debt leverage, face negative impacts from the extended interest rate uptrend and baht depreciation.

Krungthai XSpring

Energy (Power) - Flat Electricity Tariff and Ft for May to August

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat...

Krungthai XSpring

BCPG : Promising Business Expansion Outlook in Taiwan

After the site visit, we hold a positive view on BCPG’s business expansion potential in Taiwan. Having largely secured the land for proposed 480MW...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCPG : Strong Hydro Plant Operations Drove 3Q22 Earnings

Maintain BUY rating with a TP of 13.40. BCPG’s 3Q22 core profit was at Bt626m (-12% YoY, +14% QoQ),in-line with our expectation.Seasonally stronger...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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