Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25 net and core profit rose strongly YoY and QoQ, driven by US CCGT projects (higher volume QoQ, full-quarter capacity price rise, wider spark spread) and Nam San 3A &amp; 3B (higher output from increased rainfall and water flow).</li><li>We maintain our BUY call and 2026 FV at Bt10.00, as Valuation Metrics remain positive on the current valuation and stronger 2Y core EPS growth (+17% CAGR) versus peers, with neutral tactical risk.</li><li>3Q25 turned to a Bt627mn NP, in line with preview (vs. Bt28mn net loss in 3Q24 from a Bt480mn forex loss and Bt651mn net loss in 2Q25 from Bt673mn one-offs related to impairment loss in the Nabas project and EDL receivables).</li></ul>

3Q25 net and core profit rose strongly YoY and QoQ, driven by US CCGT projects (higher volume QoQ, full-quarter capacity price rise, wider spark spread) and Nam San 3A &amp; 3B (higher output from increased rainfall and water flow).We maintain our BUY call and 2026 FV at Bt10.00, as Valuation Metrics remain positive on the current valuation and stronger 2Y core EPS growth (+17% CAGR) versus peers, with neutral tactical risk.3Q25 turned to a Bt627mn NP, in line with preview (vs. Bt28mn net loss in 3Q24 from a Bt480mn forex loss and Bt651mn net loss in 2Q25 from Bt673mn one-offs related to impairment loss in the Nabas project and EDL receivables).

BCPG Plc. (BCPG): Solid 3Q25 Profit As Expected From US CCGT...

<ul><li>We expect strong 3Q25E net and core profit both YoY and QoQ, driven by seasonal gains from the US CCGT plants (higher power generation and full-quarter capacity price increase), Nam San 3A &amp; 3B (higher power output), and new profit from the Monsoon wind farm.</li><li>We maintain our Buy call and 2026 FV of Bt10.00. Valuation metrics reflect a positive view on the current valuation, with 2Y core EPS growth of +17% CAGR and limited tactical upside risk.</li><li>We maintain our 2026–27E core profit forecasts and 2Y core EPS growth of +17% CAGR, driven by solid profit from the US CCGT plant (capacity rate rising to USD270/MW-day in 2025/26 and USD329/MW-day in 2026/27) and Nam San 3A &amp; 3B. </li></ul>

We expect strong 3Q25E net and core profit both YoY and QoQ, driven by seasonal gains from the US CCGT plants (higher power generation and full-quarter capacity price increase), Nam San 3A &amp; 3B (higher power output), and new profit from the Monsoon wind farm.We maintain our Buy call and 2026 FV of Bt10.00. Valuation metrics reflect a positive view on the current valuation, with 2Y core EPS growth of +17% CAGR and limited tactical upside risk.We maintain our 2026–27E core profit forecasts and 2Y core EPS growth of +17% CAGR, driven by solid profit from the US CCGT plant (capacity rate rising to USD270/MW-day in 2025/26 and USD329/MW-day in 2026/27) and Nam San 3A &amp; 3B. 

BCPG Plc. (BCPG): 3Q25E Profit Boosted By US CCGT; Solid 2Y Profit Expected

<ul><li>We maintain a positive view on the PJM market over the next 3-5 years (driven by peak demand growth, tight power supply, and rising capacity price/revenue), reflecting strong profit contributions from the US CCGT power plant in 2025-27E, along with new profit streams from projects gradually reaching CODs.</li><li>We maintain our 2Y core EPS CAGR forecast of +17% for 2025-27E amid declining impairment risks.</li><li>Meanwhile, the reduction in the CAPEX plans and the downward revision of the 2025E EBITDA growth target due to delayed new M&amp;A projects do not affect our estimates.</li></ul>

We maintain a positive view on the PJM market over the next 3-5 years (driven by peak demand growth, tight power supply, and rising capacity price/revenue), reflecting strong profit contributions from the US CCGT power plant in 2025-27E, along with new profit streams from projects gradually reaching CODs.We maintain our 2Y core EPS CAGR forecast of +17% for 2025-27E amid declining impairment risks.Meanwhile, the reduction in the CAPEX plans and the downward revision of the 2025E EBITDA growth target due to delayed new M&amp;A projects do not affect our estimates.

BCPG Plc.: Maintain Positive View On PJM Market And US CCGT Profit Contribution

<ul><li>The market already priced in the one-off expenses that led to a net loss in 2Q25.</li><li>However, risks from one-time expenses have declined, and concerns over trade receivables from EDL have been resolved on sales of receivables at discount with payments received on Jul-2025.</li><li>Looking ahead, positive drivers for the stock price are expected to come from 3Q25E, which is projected to be the strongest quarter of the year — supported by higher capacity rates and electricity sellable output from the US CCGT projects, and peak season at Nam San 3A &amp; 3B project.</li></ul>

The market already priced in the one-off expenses that led to a net loss in 2Q25.However, risks from one-time expenses have declined, and concerns over trade receivables from EDL have been resolved on sales of receivables at discount with payments received on Jul-2025.Looking ahead, positive drivers for the stock price are expected to come from 3Q25E, which is projected to be the strongest quarter of the year — supported by higher capacity rates and electricity sellable output from the US CCGT projects, and peak season at Nam San 3A &amp; 3B project.

BCPG - Turnaround to a Net Loss in 2Q25 Due to One-Time Expenses

<ul><li>Despite an expected disappointing 2Q25E performance (a reversal to a net loss due to one-off expenses), concerns over trade receivables from EDL are likely to end, with provisions lower than market expectations.</li><li>Meanwhile, 3Q25E is expected to be the strongest quarter of the year, and the outlook for the next capacity revenue cycle (Jun.-26 to May- 27) of the US CCGT projects may carry upside potential, which could be the next share price catalyst.</li><li>We maintain our view of 2-year core EPS growth at an +11% CAGR (stronger than the sector average), although one-off expenses may pose downside risk to the 2025E net profit.</li></ul>

Despite an expected disappointing 2Q25E performance (a reversal to a net loss due to one-off expenses), concerns over trade receivables from EDL are likely to end, with provisions lower than market expectations.Meanwhile, 3Q25E is expected to be the strongest quarter of the year, and the outlook for the next capacity revenue cycle (Jun.-26 to May- 27) of the US CCGT projects may carry upside potential, which could be the next share price catalyst.We maintain our view of 2-year core EPS growth at an +11% CAGR (stronger than the sector average), although one-off expenses may pose downside risk to the 2025E net profit.

BCPG - Q25E Net Loss on One-Off Expenses; 3Q25E to Be the Best Quarter

Thailand

BCPG Public Company Limited produces and distributes electricity generated from renewable energy. The Company specializes in solar power with a focuses on the investment, development, and management of renewable power plants.

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BCPG PCL (BCPG TB)

BCPG Plc. (BCPG): Solid 3Q25 Profit As Expected From US CCGT...

3Q25 net and core profit rose strongly YoY and QoQ, driven by US CCGT projects (higher volume QoQ, full-quarter capacity price rise, wider spark...

Krungthai XSpring

BCPG Plc. (BCPG): 3Q25E Profit Boosted By US CCGT; Solid 2Y Profit Expected

We maintain our Buy call and 2026 FV of Bt10.00. Valuation metrics reflect a positive view on the current valuation, with 2Y core EPS growth of...

Krungthai XSpring

BCPG Plc.: Maintain Positive View On PJM Market And US CCGT Profit Contribution

We maintain a positive view on the PJM market over the next 3-5 years (driven by peak demand growth, tight power supply, and rising capacity price...

Krungthai XSpring

BCPG - Turnaround to a Net Loss in 2Q25 Due to One-Time Expenses

Looking ahead, positive drivers for the stock price are expected to come from 3Q25E, which is projected to be the strongest quarter of the year —...

Krungthai XSpring

BCPG - Q25E Net Loss on One-Off Expenses; 3Q25E to Be the Best Quarter

We maintain our view of 2-year core EPS growth at an +11% CAGR (stronger than the sector average), although one-off expenses may pose downside risk...

Krungthai XSpring

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