Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BCPG maintains a positive outlook on the PJM power market and capacity revenue, which are on an upward trend in 2025-26E and expected to remain high in 2027E, driven by increasing load forecasts and tight electricity supply-reserve margins.</li><li>This aligns with our view that the profit contributions from the US CCGT power plant will remain strong and serve as a key profit driver during this period.</li><li>We maintain our core profit forecasts for 2025-27E at a CAGR of 11%, outperforming the sector, supported by US CCGT, Nam San 3A &amp; 3B, and new profit streams from projects in the pipeline.</li></ul>

BCPG maintains a positive outlook on the PJM power market and capacity revenue, which are on an upward trend in 2025-26E and expected to remain high in 2027E, driven by increasing load forecasts and tight electricity supply-reserve margins.This aligns with our view that the profit contributions from the US CCGT power plant will remain strong and serve as a key profit driver during this period.We maintain our core profit forecasts for 2025-27E at a CAGR of 11%, outperforming the sector, supported by US CCGT, Nam San 3A &amp; 3B, and new profit streams from projects in the pipeline.

BCPG - Robust Outlook for PJM – Strong Contributions from US CCGT

<ul><li>1Q25 net profit came in below expectations due to one-off items, and core profit was 13% below forecast, mainly on account of higher-than-expected taxes.</li><li>However, we continued to see strong profit contributions from the US CCGT power plants in 1Q25, and this should accelerate in 2H25E supported by rising capacity revenue, along with seasonal benefits from Nam San 3A &amp; 3B (in 3Q), as well as earnings recognition from new power projects.</li><li>The 2025E core profit is likely to meet expectations, and we maintain our 2Y core EPS CAGR (2025-27E) at 11%, driven by robust contributions from the US CCGT power plants and new power projects.</li></ul>

1Q25 net profit came in below expectations due to one-off items, and core profit was 13% below forecast, mainly on account of higher-than-expected taxes.However, we continued to see strong profit contributions from the US CCGT power plants in 1Q25, and this should accelerate in 2H25E supported by rising capacity revenue, along with seasonal benefits from Nam San 3A &amp; 3B (in 3Q), as well as earnings recognition from new power projects.The 2025E core profit is likely to meet expectations, and we maintain our 2Y core EPS CAGR (2025-27E) at 11%, driven by robust contributions from the US CCGT power plants and new power projects.

BCPG - Downbeat 1Q25 NP (On One-Off Items)

<ul><li>We expect strong QoQ earnings in 1Q25E, mainly driven by the US CCGT projects, although earnings are expected to decline YoY due to the impact of the adder and divestment gaps.</li><li>The earnings momentum in 2H25E is projected to improve, supported by seasonality and the profit contributions from new power projects.</li><li>We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts, expecting 2Y core EPS growth at an 11% CAGR, fueled by strong profit contributions from the US CCGT projects and profit inflows from new projects.</li></ul>

We expect strong QoQ earnings in 1Q25E, mainly driven by the US CCGT projects, although earnings are expected to decline YoY due to the impact of the adder and divestment gaps.The earnings momentum in 2H25E is projected to improve, supported by seasonality and the profit contributions from new power projects.We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts, expecting 2Y core EPS growth at an 11% CAGR, fueled by strong profit contributions from the US CCGT projects and profit inflows from new projects.

BCPG - Expect Strong 1Q25E Earnings QoQ, with Momentum Accelerating Further in 2H25E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to rebound, with the support levels at 1,053/1,040 points and the resistance levels at 1,072/1,083 points.</li><li>Technically, the trend remains bearish (downtrend), but there is a short-term chance of a rebound, as a bullish reversal pattern known as a “hammer” has formed after the index hit a new low of 1,053.79 points yesterday before recovering in the afternoon.</li><li>This suggests a potential trend reversal, but only if today’s candlestick closes with a large green body — otherwise, it may just be a temporary pullback before further decline. </li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to rebound, with the support levels at 1,053/1,040 points and the resistance levels at 1,072/1,083 points.Technically, the trend remains bearish (downtrend), but there is a short-term chance of a rebound, as a bullish reversal pattern known as a “hammer” has formed after the index hit a new low of 1,053.79 points yesterday before recovering in the afternoon.This suggests a potential trend reversal, but only if today’s candlestick closes with a large green body — otherwise, it may just be a temporary pullback before further decline. 

<ul><li>The stability of Paetongtarn’s government has begun to falter following the release of an audio recording of a conversation between the Thai prime minister and the Cambodian leader, which led to the withdrawal of the Bhumjaithai Party from the coalition government.</li><li>Although external pressure directed at the prime minister has intensified, it is believed that a Cabinet reshuffle within the remaining coalition — whose parliamentary majority slightly exceeds half — will be the preferred course of action, as the Pheu Thai Party is not yet prepared for a new election.</li><li>This approach is expected to help maintain stability, at least until the passage of the fiscal year 2026 Budget Bill. Meanwhile, the likelihood of dissolving Parliament remains low.</li></ul>

The stability of Paetongtarn’s government has begun to falter following the release of an audio recording of a conversation between the Thai prime minister and the Cambodian leader, which led to the withdrawal of the Bhumjaithai Party from the coalition government.Although external pressure directed at the prime minister has intensified, it is believed that a Cabinet reshuffle within the remaining coalition — whose parliamentary majority slightly exceeds half — will be the preferred course of action, as the Pheu Thai Party is not yet prepared for a new election.This approach is expected to help maintain stability, at least until the passage of the fiscal year 2026 Budget Bill. Meanwhile, the likelihood of dissolving Parliament remains low.

Thailand

BCPG Public Company Limited produces and distributes electricity generated from renewable energy. The Company specializes in solar power with a focuses on the investment, development, and management of renewable power plants.

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BCPG PCL (BCPG TB)

BCPG - Robust Outlook for PJM – Strong Contributions from US CCGT

BCPG maintains a positive outlook on the PJM power market and capacity revenue, which are on an upward trend in 2025-26E and expected to remain...

Krungthai XSpring

BCPG - Downbeat 1Q25 NP (On One-Off Items)

1Q25 net profit came in below expectations due to one-off items, and core profit was 13% below forecast, mainly on account of higher-than-expected...

Krungthai XSpring

BCPG - Expect Strong 1Q25E Earnings QoQ, with Momentum Accelerating Further in 2H25E

We expect strong QoQ earnings in 1Q25E, mainly driven by the US CCGT projects, although earnings are expected to decline YoY due to the impact of...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - JUNE 24, 2025

The SET Index is expected to rebound, with the support levels at 1,053/1,040 points and the resistance levels at 1,072/1,083 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Ktx Ahead - June 23, 2025

This approach is expected to help maintain stability, at least until the passage of the fiscal year 2026 Budget Bill. Meanwhile, the likelihood of...

Krungthai XSpring

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